Member Info for SeisNav

This was from page 7 of the last WHI note:
“ Any excess cobalt can be bled from the system and precipitated to form cobalt carbonate or hydroxide for sale. The production of cobalt is entirely dependent upon the cobalt in the raw material. The previous operator of Sable (Glencore) took ore from the DRC, which was rich in cobalt. We do not have clarity on what level of cobalt is present in the ore at Roan but, if present, will form a very useful revenue addition.”

So we might see cobalt sooner than expected.

Wow, I’ve not seen 4 green blobs in a row for ages…. Someone is getting nervous!

Charles, thanks for that, I’d completely forgotten about the interim copper ramp up figures! I’m in the process of building an overall spreadsheet to keep track of things better as it’s easy to loose track. I agree with you about the 550 Tonnes / Month Copper although as Edzi said the production costs are higher. The recent WHI note stated a cost / tonne in the region of US$4,500 so I’ve gone with that. If we assume that 550 Tonnes / month is still accurate (the interim MAY be higher than that) then the earnings from Cu for H1 this year would be US$18.15M. That added to PGM and Chrome earnings would be enough to at least equal last years earnings and possibly exceed it. My estimate would be US$94.5M for year ending June 2022 compared with US$93.7M for year ending June 2021. A much healthier position than I’d originally thought.

The other thing that caught my eye looking back at the RNS from April last year: “ early earnings from copper and cobalt production are set to increase” which suggests that they are already producing Cobalt. This could be a nice addition to the bottom line if that is the case, although there was no evidence of it in the last RNS.

Steady buying this morning… or one large buyer trying to disguise it by splitting it up!

Dorfan, I will take another read through the RNS, I’ll confess to not having read through it in depth so may have missed a few things.

However I think in your calculations of the net basket price you are not taking into account the fact that there is not 100% recovery of PGM’s from the smelter, hence the ‘Smelter Pay (%)’ column in my spreadsheet. So for example Platinum net contribution would be (60/100 x 84/100 x Market price).

https://tinyurl.com/ku8tf25k

The numbers for Smelter Pay % were taken from the recent WHI note.

Thanks mogli, I must have missed that about the Palladium percentage, that would certainly improve the figures a bit. The only problem is knowing which other numbers to reduce! I’d be tempted to reduce the Platinum from 60% to 54% as it’s the next biggest contributor and I’d rather be under-estimating than over. When I do that, the earnings / oz is about US$44 higher.

Zambia 2 - 1 Congo at the moment in the football… maybe it’s a sign from the copper gods :-)

A bit of momentum building…

Thanks BB. If anyone’s interested here’s the spreadsheet I used for my calculations:
https://tinyurl.com/ku8tf25k
For Eastern limb feed I adjusted the ‘Avge PGM Split (Vol)’ figures to be: 58, 16, 1, 12, 9, 4 to account for the 12% Rhodium.

Personally I think last years FY figures should be viewed as an anomaly on the high side due to the extremely high PGM basket. A relatively small drop this year considering the disruption at Inyoni and dip in PGM prices is a positive as far as I’m concerned. The more important figure is the H1 earnings, over US$100M in the next 12 months plus copper ramping up shortly. The next set of results should help to firm up the numbers and give a much better idea on copper earnings, which is just guesswork at the moment.

If we produce 44,000 PGM oz at Inyoni with no Eastern Limb feed we could expect US$70M for the FY or US$35M for H1
If we produce 44,000 PGM oz at Inyoni with 100% Eastern Limb feed we could expect US$82M for the FY or US$41M for H1

Taking an average of the two (ie 50% EL feed) is US$76M for the FY or US$38M for H1

Assuming that they wouldn't want to process EL feed at Windsor:
If we produce 16,000 PGM oz at Windsor with no Eastern Limb feed we could expect US$15M for the FY or US$7.5M for H1

So assuming we produce the full 60,000 PGM oz for the year (and using average metal prices for the last month) we might expect: US$91M for the FY and US$45.5M for H1

For Chrome I'm assuming the same numbers as the previous period and as copper is not likely to provide much in the way of earnings until near the end of the current period I've added a token US$2M for H1

In total I estimate H1 2022 earnings at US$52M and FY 2022 at US$78.5M

This would be a drop on the previous FY of approximately US$15M which considering the drop in PGM prices and the lost time at Inyoni is pretty good in my view.

I'd be happy if anyone wants to check the numbers independently in case of any glaring mistakes. Of course there is a fairly wide margin for error depending on the basket price going forward, copper ramp up, percentage of EL feed used etc.

Looks like the geezer formerly known as Ella has added yet another ‘concerned investor’ to the portfolio. Mummy must be so proud.

The investor call is available to listen again for anyone who missed it:
https://youtu.be/XSeHT2G3gec

Well worth a listen. Nick did say that the settlement of the court cases has elicited more interest from one of the other majors and inferred that they would be talking further with them before finalising a deal. In my opinion that’s the likely reason why we haven’t heard anything further. I doubt they would want to push it much beyond March though, in order to get the drilling organised for the coming season.

“ a lot of mistakes and assumptions”

“ Kabwe is looking like a lemon”

Hmmm.

As mentioned earlier, here is the document which states that Golden Square bought the controlling interest in Chun Can in August of 2020:

https://sec.report/Document/0001017386-20-000308/

“On August 11, 2020, as a result of a private transaction, the control block of voting stock of Chun Can Capital Group. (the “Company”) represented by 215,400,000 shares of common stock [“Shares”] which is an ownership interest of approximately 97.98% has been transferred from Joseph C Passalaqua [“Seller”] to Golden Square Equity Partners Limited, a limited liability company incorporated in England and Wales. [“The Purchaser”]. The consideration for the shares was $0.0046 per share. The source of cash consideration for the shares was personal funds of the Purchaser.”

Say what you want about Ella / OOL / CU Jimmy / NorEsCo or whatever account they are logged into at the moment, at least they are good at recycling! The same old news being dragged up again and again…. Must be hard to find a new angle after so long :-)

I think Golden Square and Chun Can are essentially the same entity. I did look into this early last year and (from what I remember) Golden Square had acquired the shares of Chun Can. I’ll try and find the document again but to be honest it’s a side issue. Most of us are here for the deal with a major. It does provide an opportunity for our resident deramper to try and muddy the waters of course!

And exactly 2 years ago the share price was 2p. We can all look at the chart over that two years and see the progress…. Cherry picking a couple of numbers to suit your argument is a gross misrepresentation of reality.

“But at the moment I am very concerned watching my money errode”

A cursory look at the chart will tell you that the SP has been bouncing between 14-18p for the last 8 months or so… what erosion are you talking about Heroric? If you want to see SP erosion a good example would be HUM.

https://tinyurl.com/5du66zk6

Looks like he’s lost most of the gains made on JLP and is desperate to get back in at the lowest price. He must be feeling a bit of a bell end selling at that price but we all make mistakes :-)

I wonder why Leon is / was in the UK?, clearly not just to do an interview.