Member Info for SeisNav

More on chrome:

https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/ug2-mg-chrome-ore-prices-tick-up-as-buying-interest-boosts-confidence/

'“Demand is increasing, while supplies remain unchanged,” the sell-side source said. “It’s quite a simple condition for a price uptick.”"

Major Tom I have an extremely good memory when it comes to derampers on this board. I remember you playing this game in the past. I don’t trust you. I can’t put it any simpler than that.

I believe that Major Tom is hoping to buy lower.

Thanks for the crash course Northern, always good to learn something new! My financial education was pretty much limited to my Dad’s sage advice… if you haven’t got it, don’t spend it!

northern, if i remember rightly you have accountancy experience? i was looking at the accounts for last year and see that we have an estimated £21.5 million in tax losses to write off against future tax (p 112). i don't understand the minutiae of accounts but does that mean we will likely have a small net tax figure for this year?

i'm just trying to get a handle on likely operating profit for the year and net profit. i think the company will likely have re-invested most of its earnings. here's what i can think of for capex spend, let me know if i've missed something:

major capital spend items in fy2024:

first thutse chrome module budgeted at us$8 m

second thutse chrome module assume same budget as first? us$8 m

roan front end module (50,000 tonne cap.): us$6.5 m (from presentation) + potential integration costs with roan.

bulk tailings pilot plant for gly-leach testing: i'm sure there was a budget listed for this in an rns but i can't find it, i think it was roughly us$2-3 m but if you know better let me know.

anything else?

so at a rough guess us$25 m on infrastructure

placing raised approximately us$16.6 m to finance:

initial payment for the acquisition of the copper waste rock dump: us$1.75 m,

progress resource and process design: c.us$4.5 m,

expand the sulphide recovery circuits at the company's sable refinery: c.us$5.7 m

progress the project development phase of the mufulira **** project, with early-stage bulk trial and processing: c.us$2.5 m

for general working capital purposes: c.us$2.15 m.

One good thing (as far as I'm concerned anyway) about the assay results is that they provided plenty of information about drill co-ordinates, elevations, orientation etc. I find it useful in trying to understand the whole picture rather than purely the assays themselves. I have plotted out a depth profile of the drilling at PL135/2017:

http://tinyurl.com/3znej3kr

A couple of things I noticed. You can see the depth of the mineralised zone continues to shallow across Arc's license. One possibility is that as the mineralised layer gets pushed up to the surface by the underlying dome, it starts to narrow and pinch out, resulting in a thinner band of mineralisation.

The other thing is that because the license sits atop a buried volcanic dome its possible that it dips away in all directions from the dome (hence the U shaped mineralised zone from Zone 9 to Mawana Fold and beyond). We don't have much drill data to go on yet but the single diamond drill, ALV-DD-001, which is about 150m SW of the other RC drills, does indeed indicate that the mineralisation could be dipping to the SW. Could we see the same kind of depth profile as in the image but running to the SW? If that is the case the mineralised layer could also be widening.

We obviously won't know without further exploration but in my view I can see why it could be warranted, despite the assay results.

Here are some of the projects that Khoemacau are progressing, look at the thickness of mineralisation and grades:

Zone 5 North

◼ Located on the northern limb of the same regional anticline as Zone 5 (mirror

image to Zone 5)

◼ Dips toward the NW at -65 degrees

◼ Economic mineralisation has a strike length of 1.6km and averages 5m width

◼ Resource: 23.4Mt @1.9% Cu & 32.4g/t Ag

Zeta NE

◼ Located on the northern limb of a regional anticline 16km toward the NW of Zone 5

◼ Dips steeply toward the NW at -80 degrees

◼ Economic mineralisation has a strike length of 1.9km and averages 4m width

◼ Resource: 29.0Mt @2.0% Cu & 39.7g/t Ag

Mango

◼ Mango is located on the same limb as Zone 5, 10km along strike to the SW

◼ Dips toward the SE at -65 degrees

◼ Economic mineralisation has a strike length of 1.5km and average width of 6m

◼ Resource: 21.1Mt @1.8% Cu & 21.3g/t Ag

At PL162/2017:

Arc has drilled 2 RAB holes and 2 RC holes which included:

ALV-RAB-017 3m @ 1.45% Cu & 9.33 g/t Ag

ALV-RC-005 3m @ 0.92% Cu & 20 g/t Ag

Is it not a bit early to be writing the license off based on the first drill results?

http://tinyurl.com/339wrr8b

I certainly wouldn’t have any trouble finding a post by Bushytailed that contained lies about the company… pretty much all of them do!

He seems to have overlooked the fact that the exclusivity agreement lapsed and was not renewed in order to allow Arc to talk to other potential partners (of whom there were at least two). The fact is Anglo offered the best terms so to suggest it was uncompetitive is 100% wrong and Major Tom should admit that if he wants any credibility.

“Show me a single post about the company's fortunes from either Siesnev and gotreal over the last 2 years that has turned out to be correct and I'll never post in here again. “

One example that springs to mind is the Mufulira S l a g project which I predicted before it was announced.

Now let’s see if you can keep a promise and clear off… I’m not holding my breath! 🐒

MT i noticed that you didn’t bother to address the points I raised about your negativity towards management and dismissal of the Botswana licenses. Why is that exactly?

At least Kalan is a bit more subtle with the deramping. The two village idiots Bushy and Butter wouldn’t know subtle if it smacked them in the face. Then again they are probably earning less than minimum wage for it anyway. If you pay peanuts and all that…. 🐒

I noticed right at the end of yesterdays Sunday Roast podcast they mentioned that Jubilee will be attending the Indaba in Cape Town next week. I wonder if it's for anything specific or just networking? The keynote speaker is Zambian President Hichilema. Might be worth a watch.

Yes I see what you are saying Gotreal. Previously they were (presumably) quoting tonnes of copper cathode plus tonnes of sulphate concentrate as the total tonnes produced, now they are quoting copper units which should be tonnes of contained copper. If that is the case then it will make a substantial difference to copper earnings…. I hope you’re right!

Not just for Thutse, that's total chrome earnings for the year.

Basscadet yes thats true. If my estimates at reasonably accurate after the Thutse expansion is operating at capacity, chrome earnings should be in the region of US$40 million a year (assuming current chrome price) with increased PGM ounces too. There should be no problem financing further modules through cash flow.

We currently have 1.5 million tonnes / year of chrome concentrate capacity which will increase to 1.7 million tonnes with the Thutse expansion. The Eastern Limb chrome expansion was supposed to increase capacity to 2.1 million tonnes but we haven’t had any word on what’s happening with that. It sounds like they are working on finalising other deals so it wouldn’t surprise me if we get more announcements before too long. The only question for me is manufacturing capacity, will any new chrome modules need to wait until the copper modules are completed?

Major Tom, you have said that the management is amongst the worst you have experienced and in the same breath you have faith in the Zambian licenses. It’s that same management who had the foresight to acquire a share in those licenses and then increase that share. At the same time they have negotiated a very good joint venture deal which brings significant cash to the company as well as a significant share of any discoveries. I fail to see how that qualifies them to be the worst ever… or do you just have exceptionally high standards?

As for the licenses in Botswana, I’m certainly not trying to talk up the drilling results. What I am saying is that I think it’s too early to be writing them off, Particularly PL135/2017. We have drilled a single line of exploratory holes and established mineralisation exists across a length of at least 2km. None of those holes were actually targeting the surface anomalies so I question how you can come to the conclusion that any further exploration is unnecessary? At the very least they are justified in a low cost IP survey (20-30 thousand dollars cost I believe was quoted). With Khoemacau reporting good results on both sides of the target area why write it off so quickly?

http://tinyurl.com/59z8mwr5

I’m sure if all the genuine holders left the derampers would still happily talk rubbish to each other. They are not going the change the mind of any LTH, we all know what they are trying to do, it’s the potential new investor who comes here looking for information… thats who they are trying to sway. Either you just let them get on with it and know that in the long run they will not impact the future SP, or you keep calling them out.

Peggy is a special case of course. He’s just a troll who I caught out fishing on other boards after leaving this one for a while. Peggy is the saddest case of all.

Surely if that was the case then the revenue / copper tonne should be close to the LME copper price or even a bit more as Leon said we receive a premium for A grade cathode? The revenue / tonne in Q1 was US$6,588 but the average LME price was US$8,356.

That’s why I think its important for Leon to clarify exactly what is being produced.