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Https://www.miningweekly.com/article/chinese-copper-smelters-propose-output-cuts-on-concentrate-tightness--sources-2024-01-26

Looks like the shortfall that has been talked about for so long is starting to materialise.

As far as I'm concerned Major Tom definately talks his book. We've seen it already in the past, if he's buying he talks the share down, when he's bought everything is rosy again. Large pinch of salt required there I think.

The drilling results in general were certainly nothing to write home about but to write off the licenses based on some exploratory drilling seems a little premature in my opinion. Here's a plot I did of the data at PL135/2017:

http://tinyurl.com/59z8mwr5

Firstly they chose to start drilling at the NE end of the soil mapping data, drilling towards the NE, away from the known geochemical anomaly. Why they chose to do that rather than targeting the anomaly wasn't really explained yesterday, Vas just said they were looking to establish the existence of mineralisation at the contact rather than drilling the anomaly.

If you look at the Khoemacau data, both the thickness and grade of the mineralisation increases towards the license boundary. Also, if you extrapolate through the line of drilling, you can see it passes right through the biggest anomaly on our license. Surely that in itself is reason to want to do further exploration. Or maybe the mineralisation magically dries up on the license boundary? 😉

I'm interested in the deep anomaly that Anglo identified with their AMT survey, a method for investigating magnetic anomalies which are beyond the working range of the airborne EM surveys that we already did. The location of it in particular is interesting being within the copper-scandium anomaly but 2.5km away from the high grade oxides at Cheyeza East. If those two things are connected then we must be looking at something on a very large scale. Lets hope we get another update once assays have been completed!

Mikie, yes the fixed costs / tonne should certainly come down as the production ramps up, I was just talking about the current situation. If we are producing at least 600 “copper units”/ month then costs may be lower than in Q1, what we don’t know is the ratio of oxide to sulphide produced.

Everopeful, I think you're being over optimistic on the copper numbers. Have a look again at the Q1 update, revenue / copper tonne was US$6,588 and cost / copper tonne was US$4,907, so the margin is US$1,681 / tonne.

This is because a percentage of the copper produced is copper sulphide concentrate, which sells for a much lower price than a tonne of grade A copper cathode. Typically a tonne of sulphide concentrate contains about 25-30% copper so the price achieved per tonne will reflect that. Based on that I estimate about 28% of the copper produced in Q1 was sulphide concentrate.

We have no idea what Roan is producing at the moment but for my estimates I'm assuming the same split as Q1. Once the new front end is fully working I think we should see a big increase in the copper oxide concentrate and hence copper cathode. The original Roan plant will then be used as a sulphide circuit only according to the presentation.

Going forward I think they should report the two copper streams seperately so we can see exactly how much of each is being produced.

So why do you post so many pointless one line trolling posts and obvious deramps? Just for fun?

I was looking at some old maps of Zambia, looking for geophysical data, when I noticed a mineral map of the country. I didn't realise that uranium has been found in and around Arc's license area, near Kalaba and also just North of Fwiji. I've no idea of the scale of it, but interesting to know, given the sudden rise of uranium!

You just have to look at Summit's posting history to see what his game is. He's certainly no long term investor. I remember a while back he was banging on about dividends when the company was ploughing most free cash into growing the business.

Jonah, listening again you might be right, by the end of this FY did seem pretty tight and through experience very little seems to happen quicker than forecast!

So Leon expects to see the first module on the Waste Rock Project producing toward the end of this financial year, with a 4 month build time and 2 month installation. Maybe a bit optimistic but you never know. If they are planning on 4 modules within the SPV and building two at a time thats 8 months build time. It then fits with Project M module being constructed towards the latter part of this calendar year and installed early in calendar year 2025.

Hi Dorfan, There is a “Filters” tab just above where you click to post a new message, click on that and then click the “x” next to the name you want to unfilter. That should make the posts visible. When you want to filter again, just go back to the filter tab and add the username in the box at the top. Hit return and it should be added to the list of filtered users again.

I've unfiltered Bushy briefly to report all today's posts. If you want to clean up the board why not do the same. It will at least stop him spamming the board with lies.

That’s a good point Maximus, I didn’t bother checking the totals but as you say it looks like those 3 investors accounted for almost exactly 50% of the placing so there are new investors out there who are holding ~4% of the expanded shares in issue. As we haven’t seen any TR1 I guess we can assume there are more than one. My first thought is that it might be IRH but they are still completing DD so maybe not them.

I think I need to re-read my posts before hitting the post message button! Just noticed that I wrote that the Mufulira project was waiting for DD to complete and the signing of the SPV when in fact that is for the Waste Rock Project! The Mufulira project has already commenced a technical review and will start ASAP.

Looking again at the timeline, the Waste Rock Project is expected to get going soon after signing of the SPV in Q1 of this CY. Project M is not expected to come into production until Q1 of CY2025. I wonder if this is down to manufacturing capacity for the processing modules, with the Waste Rock project taking priority?

The major shareholdings have been updated today.... guess what most of them added to their holdings during the placement and none of them have sold since the last update.

One interesting thing from that KoBold presentation, they are looking for other opportunities in Zambia to partner in exploration... maybe they might be looking at some of our other licenses now that we have already agreed to JV at Konkola West, the possible deep extension of the Mingomba deposit.

"By my calculations we should now be generating about US$8 million in earnings from chrome."

should have read

By my calculations we should now be generating about US$8 million / quarter in earnings from chrome.

Chrome production for the quarter is actually very good, it exceeds the target that they had originally set, with Thutse now operating at capacity and delivering an extra 50,000 tonnes / quarter of chrome concentrate. By my calculations we should now be generating about US$8 million in earnings from chrome. That means the extra module at US$6 million can easily be paid off within 3 months from current operations. Adding the extra module will increase capacity by another ~200,000 tonnes / year, which would mean earnings in the region of US$10-11 million / quarter from chrome (assuming concentrate prices remain as stable as they have been for the last 3 quarters).

Presumably the same problems at South African ports in getting things into the country apply equally in getting things (such as chrome concentrate) out of the country. This may explain why the price of chrome concentrate has remained so stable for so long when usually it tends to be quite volatile.

PGM production not bad, there may be some delay between increased chrome concentrate production and increased PGM production. Target remains 42,000 PGM ounces so we should see a step up in the next quarter if we are to meet that.

Roan, obviously disappointing to see yet more delays but at least we are still producing albeit at a reduced rate. Production rates of "in excess of 600 copper units per month" (what is a copper unit? I guess this is something to do with combined oxide and sulphide concentrates?). Once the electrical component has been installed that should increase to in excess of 1,000 "tonnes" per month. If we achieve this then the copper target is more than achievable.

What we don't know is how much of the concentrate produced at Roan is oxide for cathode production and how much is sulphide for onward sales.

There's no indication if the new front end is still in South Africa or has been transported to Roan and awaiting this missing part?

Project Monkoyo still in development, need to define the resource before design and implementation of the processing module. First production expected early CY25.

The Mufulira project set to start after DD completed and SPV signed (expected end of January). Hopefully more news to follow once that is completed.

No mention at all of progress with the bulk pilot plant for the tailings solution in partnership with Draslovka. I guess we have to assume the trials are still ongoing but it would have been good to get some kind of update on that.

Well they are going to be very limited on what they can say unless they do put out an RNS first.... not long to wait to find out either way.

Bushytailed has lied consistently and openly about Jubilee for a couple of years. He doesn't even try to hide it. Any new investors can safely discount anything he says as rubbish.