RE: All our metals are falling 👀10 Feb 2024 22:19
I’d certainly disagree with your post title Cavey, it’s simply not the case that all of our metals are falling in price. I track the daily prices in a spreadsheet and calculate an estimated PGM basket based on those prices:
http://tinyurl.com/569fwj44
It's certainly true that PGM's have come down a lot from their highs a few years back (mainly due to the spike in rhodium price), but the overall basket has been pretty much the same for the last few months. It's looking to be a tough year for any PGM producers who are not on the lowest part of the cost curve (which Jubilee are). There are obviously many factors that come into play with current PGM pricing, one of them is Russia, a big producer of palladium in particular. From what I've read they are selling as much of it as they can to support the war in Ukraine, for whatever price they can get. Their main buyer is China of course.
Cobalt has obviously fallen massively as well, this is because the capacity has outpaced demand, with EV growth slower than expected. In time this is forecast to go into defecit but how long that might take is anyones guess.
Copper has been pretty steady for a long time in the range US$8,000-8,500 / tonne with forecasts predicting a rise this year due to lack of supply.
Chrome has had a great 12 months being up around US$280-300 / tonne. This is currently our biggest revenue stream.
Frankly when you look at what the prices have done in relation to the share price (ignore cobalt as we aren't currently producing any) it makes very little sense. Both chrome and PGM capacity is increasing and copper should be ramping up this year, if that goes to plan then the current SP is going to look ridiculously cheap.
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