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Maybe it’s time we started reporting the trolling here again. We just got one of the blighters binned on another share… it does give an immense feeling of satisfaction! 😂

Obviously there’s going to be pressure on the price until the Swedes have finished selling. Hopefully not that many more to go until they are done and then we might just see the price starting to head North again. That’s assuming we don’t get an RNS before that of course.

We should be due some news on Botswana shortly and potentially news on whatever is responsible for this self imposed close period for the management!

Here's a few point's I've gathered from a first read through of the note. Will probably need to go through it a few times to absorb it properly!

Modular concentrators produce three streams:

Super fine high grade copper oxide slime

5% copper oxide concentrate; and

20% copper sulphide concentrate.

Estimates suggest that the modular units will capture 65% of contained copper. Also mentions that in future the waste from the modular units could provide additional feed for chemical extraction process currently being trialled with Draslovka gly-leach. Even with 35% remaining copper this would be equal to or higher than the tailings feed.

Note that Leon said in the recent RNS that they have now tweaked the process to achieve in excess of 25% copper sulphide concentrate.

It mentions that copper sulphide concentrate was being payed at 67% of copper price for contained copper, which is lower than expected due to additional treatment costs and transport costs. Typical TC/RC (treatment charge / refining charge) seems to be currently around US$80-90/metric tonne of concentrate. The increase to 25% copper in concentrate should see a higher percentage payed.

In the WHI estimates they are using a cost / tonne of copper cathode of US$5,000-5,200 but Leon has quoted a figure of less than US$4,000 once in full production, that’s quite a big discrepancy.

Also I notice for 2024 they are assuming only copper oxide production but we know that they are producing sulphide concentrate as well.

In table 7 for the Waste Rock Project with IRH, they are including CAPEX for the concentrators when this is being funded by IRH through the SPV… doesn’t it make more sense to leave that out?

There is mention of the direct leaching of copper in sulphides. This has been achieved but will not be used at this time. The time taken to leach the copper is a bottleneck at the moment and would need an expansion of the leach plant to make it worthwhile.

WHI are using a long term price for chrome concentrate of US$250 which seems reasonable however with India expanding steel production we might see prices above this level for quite a while. There is also caution that as the need to mine deeper chromite reefs increases the breakeven point rises.

The prices and PGM split used by WHI are almost identical to what I’ve been using so that gives me confidence in the basket price I’m calculating.

Kalan, no need for the theatrics. You tried to pull a fast one, as you do in every post and you were called out for it. Please don’t take us for idiots, we can see what you are doing.

There are plenty of silent investors here who have talked the share to death over the last few years, there’s only so many times you can discuss the same things 😁 Once we start to see some action with the drill I’m sure the genuine shareholders will reappear and we will have something to talk about again.

Here’s a direct link to the note if you don’t want to sign up for it:

http://tinyurl.com/258fk4hs

I’m sure it will be on the Jubilee website soon enough anyway.

They are forecasting a closing cash position for this FY of £32.9 million, thats an increase of £20 million over last year….

Plenty of information in there, will need to have a good read when I’m more awake!

That’s US$15 million obviously, not US$15!

Here’s the article

https://www.mining-technology.com/news/kobold-to-advance-exploration-in-zambia/

Kobold have just announced an earn in deal with Midnight Sun to explore on the Solwezi Dome:

https://x.com/NavSeis/status/1760063136512774316?s=20

The terms by the way: they can earn up to 75% interest by spending US$15 and making cash payments of US$500,000 over four and a half years......

Major Tom, we both know you are full of it but really…. You can’t think of anything in Zambia that might be relevant to the close period? Not even the drilling that Anglo have done already?

As for moving on… you have insinuated that multiple people who actually contacted the company for information at “telling porkies” hardly moving on…. Moving the goalposts maybe. Then you come up with some total hogwash as to why you don’t think it’s appropriate to contact the company yourself!

You wouldn’t consider asking the company but instead you would quite happily call into question the integrity of anyone who HAS actually got that confirmed…. Very strange logic if you ask me!

Major Tom, why don’t you simply contact the company yourself as several people have already told you to do? Is it because you would rather talk the company down than confirm what others have already said… others I might say with a much better track record than yourself for telling the truth!

Https://www.miningweekly.com/article/us-moves-to-restore-stockpiling-panic-button-in-ev-metals-fight-with-china-2024-02-20

An interesting read, particularly regarding cobalt. It seems the US is planning to implement greater stockpiling of critical minerals as China has been doing for a long time. That could help to put a higher floor under the cobalt price if it happens.

“ The last placing should see Roan through to production”

The placing had nothing to do with getting Roan into production, it was to allow them to get a head start on the deal with IRH, securing manufacturing capacity for the processing modules and putting down the initial payment on the waste rock dump. Also to expand the sulphide circuit at Sable. If they had waited for the SPV to be signed, the first two things would have been payed through the SPV but they risked having to wait many more months to secure the capacity.

If other companies start to follow suit, as has already been suggested by Sibanye and others, then we might see some recovery in price but I certainly don’t see PGM’s as the company maker any time in the near future. If something does happen to trigger a jump, such as we saw in 2021, then we are already positioned to take advantage of it.

The placing was to raise money for specific reasons, as stated in the RNS. Because the placing was oversubscribed we actually ended up with more funds than originally planned, leading to the “general working capital”. Another point to bear in mind:

“ Pay the initial payment of US$1.75 million, due under the agreement for the acquisition of the copper waste rock dump announced on 12 December 2023 detailed above and progress resource and process design (a total of c.US$4.5m).”

All of this should be covered by the SPV once signed off, so as I understand it we should get that investment back.

I’m not expecting fireworks from the next set of financials, we already know the production numbers, the only question mark is over the chrome earnings margin increase.

I don’t think long term holders really concern themselves with what the charts predict, I certainly don’t anyway. All they can do with any degree of reliability is predict the past.

Https://www.miningweekly.com/article/amplats-restructuring-to-impact-3-700-jobs-after-71-yy-earnings-decline-2024-02-19

A sign of the pressures on PGM miners at the moment. If we can continue to produce profitably at these levels then hopefully longer term prices will have to reflect lower overall production.

Looks like PGM prices are picking up again after the Chinese New Year holiday.

Cheers Fulmar, I guess that rules out Botswana because they said at the last call there was no current interest from other companies so in my opinion it must be something to do with Zambia. The obvious thing for me is the drilling… unless it’s something completely left field that we don’t yet know about I don’t see what else it could be!

Anyone know how long the closed period has been in effect or when we first found out about it?

The problem with a lot of the ‘critical minerals’ needed for the energy transition is that mining capacity has expanded much faster than demand has. Prices for nickel, lithium and cobalt have all crashed for that reason. Long term demand for all of them is expected to be strong but in the short term a lot of operations will need to shut down to rebalance supply with demand I think.

Copper is different in that even without the EV market, supply is already tight because of gradually reducing grades, lack of investment in exploration and increasing demand. The recent issues in South America are only likely to hasten the tightness in the market. It’s an obvious metal to be invested in.

Also I think it’s good to have a foot in the PGM market too, EV uptake seems much slower than anticipated so PGM’s likely to be required in auto catalysts longer than originally expected. Also the push toward green hydrogen as a fuel source is hoped to provide the next market for PGM’s, especially platinum, iridium and ruthenium. PGM’s are also being trialled in the next generation of EV batteries to make them more efficient… so rumours of their demise might be overdone!