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Large scale hydrogen production still seems to be quite some way off and there is limited availability of iridium which is used in PEM catalysts. There have been breakthroughs recently which allow for substitution of ruthenium for iridium, which could allow a roll out to be scaled up much more cheaply. Of course that relies on an available source of PGM’s…

I think there will need to be a combination of solutions including potentially multiple different battery technologies (sodium-ion seems to be the new kid on the block) to meet the demand. Cobalt will probably still have a role to play due to its range advantage over other battery types as well as better performance in cold weather environments.

ERG has recently announced plans to build a cobalt sulphate refinery in Saudi Arabia so they clearly see future demand increasing well beyond current capacity. We might have a while to wait before prices recover enough to be economic for Jubilee to start production again though.

We won't know for sure until the potential big buyer has had their fill and belched out a TR1...

If they have a large buy order to fill at below the current share price then its in the MM's interest to take the price down in order to try and fill it... the constant stream of buys are (imo) largely part of the same order, broken up to avoid drawing attention to it and risking a bit of positivity!

It is frustrating that they don't play the game with social media etc. If Leon is in Cape Town for the Indaba then presumably theres a reason for it and not just to have a free drink at the V&A Waterfront! Why not use the social media channels to at least let us know what's happening.

Kobold President at Indaba, talking about using AI to discover Mingomba:

https://youtu.be/ng6K50kmq1s?si=Znpb5v_3Md0Q55H9

For those interested I’ve added a short clip of the data from the PL135 license on the end of my blog post (full screen and slower playback is better). I just wanted to illustrate the difference in where Arc drilled compared with Khoemacau. Even at the closest point there is a 200m difference in the line of drilling between the two… a big distance when you are looking for a mineralised layer that is likely just a few meters wide and which is likely to be dipping away to the SW… we were drilling toward the NE!

https://seisnav.blogspot.com/2022/07/arc-minerals-in-kalahari-copperbelt.html

I’m surprised how little response there has been to the news by Kobold Metals of the massive high grade Mingomba ore body (expected to become one of the largest in the world), especially in light of the JV with TYM to test for an extension of it on the Konkola West license

https://x.com/navseis/status/1754807708396507548?s=61

As I just pointed out, both PGM’s and Chrome prices have been stable, as has copper if you look at averages rather than day to day trends.

SLP is very dependent on the PGM basket. JLP has chrome which is currently our main revenue stream and which is growing in both production and margin…. What can you do? Unless something comes up that we didn’t know about then I’ll continue to hold.

I said the other day that PGM basket price has been stable for many months so whatever has got people spooked, it's not metal prices.

http://tinyurl.com/2b53rfyv

Https://x.com/navseis/status/1754407555353223677?s=46&t=qK4DPH7pcxWXgzixCRga2w

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The PGM basket, the main reason for the fall in SP, has been flat for months now. It has reached its floor. Producers are already shutting down larger operations because their costs are too high. Jubilee can still make a profit on PGM’s even at this level. That’s before you throw in chrome, which will become a not insignificant addition over the coming months as the second Thutse module comes online. At that point our all in costs / PGM ounce when you add chrome credits will be zero!

You might think I’m being unrealistic thinking the SP is being manoeuvred to fill an order but I have just watched it happen on another of my shares. The price continued to fall despite obvious strong buying over weeks, then suddenly up pops a TR1 for an increased significant shareholding! They always find a way!

Those shares are getting mopped up. If they have a buy order to fill they will always find a way to drag the price down. Optimism shouldn’t be based on the share price, it should be based on the assets… and Anglo are very optimistic to pay what they did and spend so long negotiating for it.

Chrome concentrate production increasing ✅

Chrome higher margin production increasing ✅

Chrome price increasing ✅

PGM production increasing ✅, leading to

Lower cost / PGM ounce ✅

Copper already in production ✅

Copper production forecast to increase dramatically in the next 12 months ✅

Copper price forecast to increase dramatically in the next 12 months ✅

Honestly I’m struggling to see the investment case! 😉

Chinese reporting a tick up in the price this week, now US$285-288. Can see this going higher with increased demand but limited supply.

Shuvlin, if you look at the numbers I calculated you can see the tolled volume is the same in each case, it’s only the non-tolled volume that increases through the new contracts. The number agree with what they are quoting in the presentation for 2 million tonnes so, I agree with Dorfan, no significant change in the tolled contracts.

There's so much conflicting information on the chrome numbers it's difficult to get a picture of what the real numbers actually should be. In the WH Ireland research note, there's a schematic which shows Inyoni and the chrome plants (before Thutse). It shows theoretical capacity for each part of the circuit, so I've used those numbers to see what they give in terms of percentage tolling and open market:

http://tinyurl.com/3rzksm5k

In the last presentation, there are numbers quoted for 2 million tonnes: 58% tolling and 42% open market. This ties in pretty well with my theoretical calculation of 56% tolling and 44% open market. It also quotes numbers for 1.45 million tonnes of 67% tolling and 33% open market. This doesn't match with the numbers I calculated but it DOES match with the numbers for 1.7 million tonnes! I suspect the numbers quoted in the presentation should actually be for 1.7 million tonnes not 1.45 million tonnes.... Make your own mind up!

Jonah, I believe the expanded sulphide circuit at Sable is directly connected with the IRH waste rock project. Leon explicitly says that in the last Sunday Roast Podcast. He said they want to process as much of that material as possible through Sable and the expanded sulphide circuit would be a part of achieving Sable's capacity of 16,000 tonnes / year.

My thinking was that:

1. Roan sulphide concentrate, produced in the 'traditional' way by floatation, is for direct sale to the market.

2. Concentrate from the in-situ copper modules (containing some mixed ores) would come into Sable and then pass through the sulphide extraction circuit before going to the electrowinning circuit to produce cathode.

As ever with Leon, you need to be Sherlock Holmes to interpret what's going on so there's no guarantee my understanding is correct!

https://www.thesundayroast.net/podcast/episode/506000b2/s7-ep7-midweek-takeaway-with-leon-coetzer-ceo-of-jubilee-metals-aimjlp-jlp

Everopeful, my understanding is that the direct leaching process would result in more copper cathode. This from the RNS 22/11/2022:

"This process by-passes the need for traditional power intensive smelting of copper sulphide concentrates, offering additional growth opportunities from Sable's operational capability from the processing of mixed copper oxide and copper sulphide concentrates"

So it's bypassing the smelter process, logically that implies it ends up as copper cathode rather than being sold to a smelter for processing. I think this is purely for the more complex mixed sulphide / oxide ores mentioned above, which cannot be easily concentrated by froth floatation, as is done at Roan.

According to the research note and other sources I've read, sulphide concentrates are typically 27-30% copper. Prices I've seen are typically 20-25% of the LME price / tonne.