Member Info for Seingred

Pp, the vast majority of explorers lose peeps cash but it takes many years to find this out. Obviously timing is critical. We are both in Wsbn , I sold twice last year on spikes at 16 p and around 13 p on the second spike last year. Today they sit at 3.5 poss

Webbs, I am getting over 6% on cosmos ??

C f, always useful to have recent xamples.
Sale equivalent £750 m
6 G/t
97 % procurement , is it funded to construction if full procurement has been carried out. Costs for this mine are multiples of cnr mine costs.
Reserves are much larger than cnr which I believe are under 700 m oz. At 3.6 m and a much longer mine life.
Immediately and meaningfully grows B2Gold’s attributable Mineral Reserves and Mineral Resources base:
Attributable Proven & Probable Mineral Reserves increase by 66% to 9.0 million gold ounces.
Attributable Measured & Indicated Mineral Resources increase by 52% to 18.5 million gold ounces.
Attributable Inferred Mineral Resources increase by 63% to 7.4 million gold ounces.
They also have underground to add like cnr. Further district scale for drilling which cnr has.
And obviously jurisdiction has its part.
Not sure how much this helps value cnr but what it does underline for me is the kind of deal I would imagine, ie a paper deal which makes me still question this idea of an asset sale over a takeover or merger. I still do not see an example of this scenario apart from large companies selling off single assets. I do not like the lack of clarity . Not long ago mellon was telling his followers on his podcast that cnr would be delivering 150 k oz production this year.
It states as usual that the 1.1 b deal is on a fully dilution basis so it is highly unlikely that mellons 6.666m shares for a 2 month £1 m loan and 16.666 m options all at 15 p will not come into play. Which I think if anybody checks will find mellons breakeven is lower tan most here.
It would be much clearer if it was a clean takeout and we may well find that the plan has to change again. Meanwhile we will be burning through that very dilutional raise.
I think the sharp lift of resources and scale is the reason b2 have invested £750 paper.
A cash deal would have been lower.
Worth a looksie at aris gold merge with gcm.
Also zijin buyout of continental gold in 2020.
Again 3.2 m reserves , 11 total and a mostly constructed 250 oz pa mine .
$us in 2020.
200 k plus pa mines are the benchmark for larger tier producers. Cnr would be looking for mid tier like calibre, equinox etc level.
The asset is clearly worth a lot more than current m cap but how much and what the actual implications of asset sale are are not helpful and it looks like the market may agree so far. Lets hope we have some proper clarity and good news.

Rob, I dont say that omi will not be worth considerably more in the future , what I say is it is that we are many many years away from where continental sold for $1 b usd, and much can happen in the intervening time including dilution from next year onwards. could you name a 25 m oz resource that you refer to , the company and m cap?? I dont mean off the cupp throwaway comments by a ceo who holds virtually no stock but actual resource
The largest I know is arris which now includes gcm of I believe around 18 m ounces in all cats . The m cap is $587 m canadian which is £364 m. I think you will find they are the largest gold miner in colombia.
Re newmont
https://nvdatabase.swarthmore.edu/content/peruvians-cajamarca-stop-building-giant-gold-mine-2011-2012
How you view your investment and strategy is up to you. What you need to learn is that you do not have a monopoly on opinions and you certainly are not going to tell me what I can and cant post. Suggest you use filter button .

Of the methods of attributing value.
Dr, I will be very happy if we get to 40 p in a couple of years. The problem here is that many got caught on a spike that clearly was unrealistic and unsustainable but many try to use an intraday spike over 40 p as a valuation tool which it clearly isnt. Happy to be proved wrong on that one. What does irk me is the constant reference to ggp but total reluctance to use any others. Colombia is very prospective and there are many other companies to use as reference there and elsewhere in latin America. Aus is the most prospective and safe jurisdiction for gold being far and away the biggest new reserves producer. And not the best comparison imv. Although it is uncanny that they have both fallen from high 30 s to sub 10 in tandem .
Dr . I have pretty much as many as I want here but will add mainly by trading , I dont disagree that present levels offer good risk reward but it may go lower yet . If my average was in the teens or higher I would be more likely to add but its not .
Good luck

Pp, 1.3 b is Canadian dollars . You have converted using usd. It is just shy of £200 m . With 11 m inferred ounces and 3.2 m reserves !
Burittica will increase over time. That is the way of it . It is highly unlikely that we will surpass Burittica before heading to construction.
Can you give details of the buyout clause ? Cheers.
I do not disagree that there are good prospects here which is why I hold here , I just take issue with some of

Pp, can you give the actual details of the buyout clause just for reference. Cheers.
A tenth of $1 b us is $100 m us . £83 m. How is that a 10 bagger ??? But peeps were predicting that kind of m cap for last year!! At what point do you think that a buyout will be forthcoming? $ 1 b usd was the purchase price with 11 m oz ini and 3.2 m oz reserves and a funded and largely constructed mine. You can talk about 10,20 30 m oz. The reality is that a resource similar to Buritticca will be proved before construction and any further drilling will be after production.

Chicken, not surprising , cash disapears fairly quick in explo and we have done very little so far really. Interested if anybody has figures for buritticca spend to get to 11 m oz and 3.2 proven ?
what we do know is the timescale. As pp pointed out Burittica was sold for $1 b usd. It was sold at close t the top of the gold market in 2020 . Most producers are quite a way off of 2020 sp yet.
So at the stage that Burrittica was sold which incidentally also covered the mine build for a 250 k oz operation. I have seen a figure of around $600 m mentioned for total spend.
There are many , many years ahead to grt anywhere near the point that continental sold out. And for the equivalent of $250 m usd on a 25% basis.
I hold shg , they are closing n on 100 k oz production and have already proved 1.8 m high grade oz in w kenya in the time omi have proved nothing to a jorc standard. Shg are constantly drilling to expand resource. Their m cap is around £110 m
I also hold calibre mining who are producing 250 k oz and spending double Our $20 m per year annually . Nicaragua is a similar jurisdiction to colombia in many ways . Their m cap is £300 m
I would be interested to see any links to the other colombian miners ? I think sensible comparisons are useful when guestimating value.
For me here I expect omi to trade between 6-20 p which gives ample room for a very nice return . For me as always trading a portion will be key.

Y v, I think you are correct that a merge, joint v may be the best deal for l t holders . I am in at around 17 p and think risk reward is ok at that price but not overly exposed. May add a few more. If we drop a bit lower. There are far safer bets around imv. Producers have taken a fair tumble and looking to be fair value from here imv.
Good luck

https://www.chronline.com/stories/mining-company-reports-finding-3-billion-gold-deposit-in-eastern-washington,313670

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/01/12/2365694/0/en/Calibre-Mining-Completes-Acquisition-of-Fiore-Gold.html

A calibre aquisition for reference

Scandy, been following it on aljazeera. However they are bringing in a law to strip them all of their nationality as traitors . Us is describing it as progress though.

I get you r point.
So what
No not interested in Aldi, more interested in making some cash than getting assy on a bb. I like to have a rounded view on things.
Ggp, massively undervalued, two majors picking up the drilling tab etc. ??

Pp, yes in mstr, traded arb and bought bit of marathon not too long end of last year. Also traded obc although not a miner. Agree , more volatile than gold producers so as soon as bitcoin starts to retreat time to sell and wait. Same mo for gold producers. Let a bit of cey go begining of last week . Thinking crypto is a bit toppy now so been selling little bits at a time and will wait for the drop. I reckoned $ 16 k looked like bottom on bth could be wrong , so was buying q4 last year and adding bits of producers on the dips. I am mostly in eth with decent ammount of cosmos and algorand for the interest of near 6% on c base, but small ammounts of various alties .
Also doing ok with microstrategy , block too.
Looking to trade here before April and buy back in isa. I dont like bed and isa , Prefer to try and profit from it. Want as much as poss in isa now before cgt changes.
We seem to be in a lot of similar places pp.
good luck .

Portfolio. Always interesting to see how accurate the experts are. Been a great month for crypto , way ahead of gold. My producers have dropped average 15-20 % in the last week or so. Currently selling bits of crypto after some pretty impressive gains this month so I am extatic if bitcoin halves as I will be rebuying crypto at half price in that case in bitcoin and likely much lower in alties. Meanwhile looking to top up on good producers if we see further weakness. Lets touch base on this one as the year goes on .

5-0. These paid notes never factor in forthcoming dilution, sp qqare never achieved and also have been reducing sp predictions over the years.
The video you mention did mention crypto loans but i think that is one for the future, early days yet and tokenised gold is for sure coming. Worth noting that while gold producers have just given up generally around 5-20% in the last week or two, crypto is still storming qlong with a lot of tech . A great first month of the year. Personally selling a bit now and add bit more producers if they fall much more this week.
Re the sale costs , would imagine there will be general costs pluss a percentage bonus. But yes if there is a sell fail , we will have used significant ammount of recent raise and then what ???
I think it will probably sell but mny will get a shock at what returns and timescale.
Its all guesswork atm, just depends how good you are at guessing and how deep nd underwater peeps are. Guesswork here generally involves being over optimistic on timescales particularly, finnce and definitely dilution and share price.
For me out on whatever the news is good or bad .

Cf, I think also forcast aisc are different to actual aisc, particularly in a time of high inflation. Mako have established a successful mine with actual aisc. I am sure pure minerals figures were good before construction. Well run mines run into production issues etc which both equinox and shg have, there is absolutely no reason to suspect that if cnr went to production it would somehow be perfect and no issues which is the general assumption here. Experienced aquiring mining companies do not think like locked in holders and will price in downside rather than upside imv.

C f, on makos website they claim to have built 3 mines in mexico. Both mako and equinox have been created in less than the timescale cnr have spent on the purchase of land to put things in perspective. Now we hear about the importance of grades , worth checking out makos, shg ,equinox and calibre drilling releases recently. Mako and equinox are very different companies and differ to cnr. If we compare mako business model, they have moved into production quickly and carried out drilling from income. Cnr shouldve followed a similar path imv if they were serious about production. This would have limited dilution.
Equinox is a 500 k oz pa producer whose business model is to build a large scale company through aquiring existing companies and furthering reserves and improving what exists. Of course they have debt but are soon to be a 1 m oz producer. Equinox is funded to 1 m oz and currently valued at £ 1 b . They will be producing 1 m oz. before la India produces 100 k oz .
Would I want to be in a 1 m oz producer at £1 b or la India for £200 m and another $100 m to spend. Well I am in equinox at under $ 3 and see no validity in the comparison but hey , time will tell. I have bought back around 17 p here and think there is good risk reward but I will keep to my valuation of little more than £100 m but with the posibility that there may be a different deal other than a full buyout. There is a chance that no acceptable cash bid actually appears. Best to have a wary aproach and perhaps be pleasantly surprised than the opposite imv .
Good luck

Ddd, yes that’s a possible scenario . I don’t think it’s a given that a dividend paying company will grab the assets. More likely a mid tier expansion company like equinox calibre , arid etc imv.
Here’s an interesting interview with Ross Beaty chairman of equinox . From nearly a year ago but still interesting. He is still a holder in galantas. Paper in calibre or equinox works for me.
Personally would prefer clean full takeover, this asset sale idea is not very transparent , usually an asset sale would be in a continuing company with other assets.
Nero, ddd has explained his theory on the owed £45 m .
Ddd, will be interesting seeing the actual end result . Appreciate your methods using logic, still think you may be a bit o n the hopeful side re sp but time will tel.
Good luck

E l crypto has been bouncing off 1 year lows. Cnr is at a 15 yr low. Bitcoin and eth recent low is still many x the previous low. My point is that the idea that they are both surging and it is not binary. I always pointed out the 4 year cycle and that there would be a correction and it could be painful and that most had probably missed the boat. Last year was the time to buy producers and the last few months the time to add crypto and us tech imv. As regards explorers, very few seem to reward s holders and this is not the worst example but will not reward many holders imv.
Yes gold looks strong for the foreseeable which is great if you are digging it out of the ground.
Nero referring back to your little dig at the beginning of the month, equinox doing rather well and won’t mention the ponzis lol. Just have to know when to sell just like with dilutive explorers.