Member Info for Seingred

Polo, what rns is clear about what exactly?

Simms, are you auditioning for scooby doo. We d all be rich If it wasn’t for that pesky calibre. Lol. Q

Hi c f, yes thats true , but then you have to Ask why is calibre undervalued. You could also look at arris which is now combined with gcm with their huge reserves and production . Mako has a different model to cnr and a fairly successful one. A model that cnr could have followed if it really wanted production. Ie get in production as fast as poss then prove up more from revenue. I believe they are turning up good grades just like calibre.
Simms, one possible scenario is that cnr retains a royalty from production, not too unusual that hence the asset sale. Mc could carry on pulling wages and cnr could just become another investment shell which is where mc and the mellon started out . Honk kong bankers.
The idea that companies are suddenly going to up their offers because of a short term rise in gold price seems unlikely when it will be 2.5 years min before commercial production . Otherwise they should have been trimming their offers a few weeks ago when pog plunged.
At the end of the day there are producing companies like shg to be had, giving instant revenue, any purchaser will be looking for their best deal.
9 ndas does not make a bidding war it gives 9 tyre kickers. Lets see how many offers transpire.
Simms we have a reserve of around 650 k oz that is not massive. Burittica in colombia had 3.6 m reserves and a mine almost completed when it sold for $1 b us at the top of the market in 2020. Shanta was for sale if the offer was right , with three offers ,2 chinese it didnt happen.shg has a m cap around £100-110 m .with a 100 k oz production aproaching and an 11 g/t 1.8 m oz resource that is growing right now so nearly the equivalent of cnr in a seperate jurisdiction. No reserves on that yet obviously as it is still being explored from revenue.
It is most likely to be chinese and zijin took out continental so already have a footprint further south. I think a deal is likely , Not convinced by the more hopeful valuations but having always been cautious with expectations here I dont need to bank on top side hopes.
Good luck everybody

Cegamer, Cnr was around 34 p when sanctions were announced. Where we are is close to the sp when the news that a heavily discounted large dilution was going to happen at 15 p with Mellon getting 16.66 m warrants at that same 15 p. It remains to be seen where this will stabilise. What we have seen is people taking positions for the possible sale. Personally if we get to 30 p I will be happy without anything binding. 9 ndas does not mean a bidding war but two non binding offers is ok. Shg had 3 and no deal. Shg we’re in a different position to Cnr in that they have income and no need to sell.
In regards to b$ company , calibre that is producing 250 k is pa is a £300 m company . I think you are heading for disappointment with your £1 hopes. That would be more than £200 m and nearer calibre m cap which doesn’t seem very likely to me.
Certainly would be happy to be wrong but history here makes it unlikely . 40-50 p imv .

Rob, definitely worth a read. They used prices that now are out of date and obviously jurisdiction varies but gives a very good overview. Also highlights what a drop in the ocean 20 m is over 4 years.

https://minexconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Gold-exploration-trends-NewGenGold-2019-TEXT.pdf

Not the same one but similar. Gives a good insight into how much cash needs spending for 3,5 10 m resource

Ha ha, Bhargav, pp now over at Cnr plying his trade. Never posted there til yesterday. Think he has more chance there than his 2-300% in 2-3 weeks here.
B I am not saying 4-50 p can’t be achieved , just saying sub 10 p is the sensible price to pay.
Was reading an interesting article on exploration costs and the market . I will try and find it and post. Basically equating $64 per ounce for average costs for exploration. Obviously different in different jurisdictions.

Big spread, was quoted 7.20 for a sell. So didnt sell .

Fancy seeing you here portfolio. I have missed you over at omi after your prediction of 2-300% in 2-3 weeks lol.
I have added to my 17 p shares here this week. Finally at the business end hopefully.

Indeed slippery. Simms has a habit of over egging the pudding. My question is, why an asset sale, the sp is re rating with news , a clean takeout is much more preferable to this rather unusual asset sale that is not very transparent. Takeover of company would be on a fully diluted basis , all cash to holders on completion of sale. This is still far from transparent but I am happy to wait for 30 plus p to be out with free run to the finish.
Nothining is guaranteed as rns states, but the likely hood is a deal forthcoming but the sp may too and fro yet before all becomes clear.

Simms, the board can always go it alone. Really?? That’s why we just had massive dilution to get a sale process that already has already taken 3.5 months.
Nice movement . Personally would like 30plus for a total de risk . A bird in the hand .

Havnt seen portfolio since his 2-300% in 2-3 weeks predictions?? Now just need to see if someone elses multibags in a Couple of months prediction is any better?
Agree B not too much is likely to happen here for a good chunk of this year meanwhile the much lUded cash situation will be running down with little to show. Buy lows and dont be too greedy is my scenario. Easy to get sucked in to holding forever with fantasy prediction and end up with little at the end. Make hay when the opportunities re there imv .
Do your buying under 10 p and forget nonsence of paying 30,40,50 p. Gla

5-0, China is really the only deal that makes sense in the circumstances imv. Been saying that for quite some time. I gave zijin purchase of continental in colombia in early 2020 as a good reference.
Continentl had 11 m oz and 3.4 m reserves and. Virtually complete 250 oz mine sold at top of the market for $1 b. Us. We have around 650 k reserves and 2.4 m oz and a mine to finance.
Quite some time to run yet I suspect and wouldnt expect any possible payout until beyond q2 at best imv but thats nothing when you been waiting 12 years .
Expect a much better response when a binding offer announced.
Good luck peeps

Ccc, personally agree with punter. The idea that the expressions of interest are not covered by the ndas is somewhat unlikely. Sounds good though.

Wowsers

Simms, you are forgetting that anybody buying first of allhas 18 months of time and investment before even first pour, then 6 months ramp up period. Also in one of mc interview with jochen he confirmed 2 years to recoup costs, which is not at all bad . So it would take anyone around 4 years in reality to recoup costs notwithstanding any possible interest costs.
As regards the 10 m oz why not say 50 m or 60 m . We have 2.4 m proved . Obviously there is more but until drilled and proven its just possibles.yes it is desireable to have further prospectivity but not going to add much to the $$$ imv. we are at the business end now , lets see where we end up. Personally disapointed with the sp today .

Punter, lets see the confirmed offers first .
Simms, you keep stating this vote winning biden sanctions rubbish . And now us and nicaragua are dancing together. Today nicaragua has cut of ambassadors with vatican in his war with the catholic church, has stripped many prominent opponents of their citizenship. President lula of Brazil recently criticised ortega at alba meeting . Neither gustavo petro of colombia or boric of chile also leftists support him . Geo politicals are still degrading imv . Trump brought in sanctions and the only yanks that have any real interest in latin america live in florida that will probably be won by de santis who may become president . He will likely make biden look like a teddy bear.
Cnr will not fund this . There will not be any kicking on or your mellon financing out of petty cash etc. Sale is the only realistic option and it is really a buyers market imv.
Best to be realistic as always.

Punter, you need to use the fully diluted number . You seriously think mellon gave himself 16.66 m warrants for no reason?? The real number is around 235 m shares. Personally will be amazed if an offer much over £100 m is agreed. You are not allowing also for costs ??? Pf which nobody here has a scooby about ! And looks like mellon probably intends to keep a shell going .

Somerset, mellon predicted 100 k oz production for last year and 150 k oz production a couple of years ago to his followers. Mellon has also paid £1.60 per share . Maybe that means we should get over £1.50 . Just like 888 predicted . Mellon helped crash the sp to 15 p and loaded himself with 15 p warrants . Blind faith in the granny robber is folly imv. .
However there is good risk reward for anyone entering sub 18 p imv . Burying more cash in here if your average is much higher is a more risky scenario. Shg had 3 offers. Cnr have 2 non binding offers so far and are still in the first phase. Shg offers came to nothing, and are a far more attractive target than cnr imv . Their m cap around £110 m spiked to £130 m on bid speculation. Some overoptimistic targets on here imv.
Management were confident of raising cash and progressing to production not so long ago.
Simms ,n10 ndas does not mean there will be 10 offers or a bidding war. There is still due dilligence to carry out yet and legals. This will roll into summer easily .
Good luck all

Nm, good luck with that . Sounds bit crazy to me . Why would you even think about buying at 40 p when you can buy at 18 p. Done my buying after the raise and slightly in profit today finally. This is still far from a done deal. good luck.