Thoughts for the day26 May 2017 05:42
IMOO - the Tan govt is pursuing a war of attrition on ACA - with one of 3 objectives in mind --- 1. To force ACA to pay a "big fine" (could be taken out of the 40 million VAT refund the govt is presently refusing to pay back to ACA) and also to increase its royalty payments (ACA just paid Q1 over 8 million to the Tan govt - annual payment of about 34 million) 2. To force ACA to sell its mines et al to the Tan govt at a cheap price 3. To force ACA to sell out to a (probably Chinese) company who will work better with the Tan govt ) China is taking over vast mineral resources in Africa and building major infrastructure - roads, railways etc. The Tan govt has a history of Communist leanings. ACA presently has stockpiled 120 million worth of ore (with 20 million under lock-down at DES port - already sold) If the ore at DES is not released soon ACA will have to refund the 20 million upfront payment to its customers.
The best option for us all is number 1 but the crisis has arrived and if no agreement is reached very soon the ACA BOD will have to cut costs by suspending mining operations. The Market has already priced in the cost to the SP of the crisis - the SP now is only about 43% of its 2016 top value. An early agreement to option 1 would bounce the SP much higher IMO. I have no idea what effect a forced sale of all Tan assets would have on the SP - ACA is not a "one trick pony" and rapidly developing the West Kenya very rich goldfields. I am holding tight to my shares in ACA and look for a rising SP later this year.
Regards all and GL with your own assessments and plans