Member Info for Scotty77

sorry for all those invested here. I cant believe they went into this deal without a 99% certainty the funding was all wrapped up. The way it reads to me there is also a 700k penalty for pulling out. What a complete mess they have made of what appeared to be a positive move. Now they are talking about the company wrapping up. Even if they get the cash to carry on unless they start making some money this doesn't look good.

on what was essentially good news e.g profitable and merger, but not the news people were expecting. Does seem well over done when you look at the facts. If you assume those who were looking for the quick buck from the review are now leaving, the current price is not reflective of the price prior to the strategic review announcement, which was then floating between 8.5 and 9.5p. In a co that is now profitable and in theory worth more not only in held domains but also future earnings, divis etc.... This is the aim casino after all and a companies current position is rarely reflected correctly especially if it is out of sight.. It definitely needs some exposure imo.

is how much was priced in for the takeover. Then we find the bottom. Hopefully no lower than this.

reached

Why do VOG keep looking for more gas when they cant sell what they have. Very frustrating that they keep banging on about the demand. The government don't see it as important otherwise they would be finding the money to pay its bills and get gas flowing again. We keep seeing announcements about cameroon investments but they dont seem interested in paying for the basics. If VOG dilute to raise more funds it will be a complete abuse of shareholders. How many new customers have they signed up in the last 12 months would be my first question. What justifies investing in more Gas supplies..

That's the million dollar qs. There is some suggestion that the offering to Solus extends to this amount but I don't see any details about the solus offering or the value of it. So not sure if Avanti are seeking another loan on top of the d4e swap. Seems like its never ending pit and I wouldn't be surprised if the lenders simply pull the plug.

I will probably regret this but the more I look at the recent RNS i think this has a chance at a last hurrah It seems we need three things:- Agreement from Shareholders on the restructure by end of April. 50m new loan which needs to be in place by June And recurring revenue of 40m by June I think the restructure will be approved otherwise existing shareholders have no chance of seeing anything In the 25th Jan update they alluded to :-The directors forecast that revenue for the current financial year will not be less than $50 million. In addition, there is a large infrequently recurring transaction in the pipeline that, if it closes, would add a further $40 million to Group revenue So i think the requirement for recurring 40m in the latest RNS is actually referring to this deal being signed and the co feel this will complete once the there appears to be some financial security.. So it seems to me they have aligned all the ducks in the background and just need everyone to comply. I suspect the potential lenders of the 50m know about the 40m deal and this is the carrot avanti are waving in their face.. Alternatively kiss goodbye to the lot. So we need to see 3 x RNS 1) restructure fully approved before end of April 2) Loan agreed 3) new deal signed on the back of the agreed loan and restructure. This will give avanti 6 months a year breathing space to generate new revenue to make it all viable... I don't think this is quite dead yet, obviously IMO.. good luck all..

buko, understood, hopefully the bond holders are prepared for another round of lending. If solus funds comes out owning 42% of the company I wonder what this allows them to do with regard to the companies running and whats left. I bet their recent hire is well chuffed at the situation. He only officially started last week... or did he Kyle Whitehill commented: 'I am delighted to be part of Avanti's new beginning. As HYLAS 4 is launched, a new story will be written. There is great opportunity here. We are bringing much needed, secure and reliable broadband communications services to communities, governments and companies across Europe, Africa and the Middle East. In Africa, we will help transform a continent by bringing communications and opportunity to unserved communities. I look forward to working with the team at Avanti and, with my contacts across these regions, to deliver great services to Avanti's customers and great results for its investors.' Paul Walsh, Chairman, commented: 'We welcome Kyle, who has the right skills and experience to drive and deliver Avanti's refreshed growth strategy. His significant international experience and leadership skills will lead the Avanti team in building on the exciting opportunities created by the launch of HYLAS 4.

I hope the open offer isn't the only way they hope to raise the extra 50m or we really are screwed at these current prices. Im in for a punt at a 7p average but fully accepting this could be a total loss in the next couple of weeks. I've agreed all resolutions in the hope this will give the company a boost to get through the coming months. As i understand it if you don't vote at all these are taken as acceptances so hopefully most just ignore it and the resolutions pass. Its a gamble pure and simple.

Where does the January RNS state:- Furthermore, if the Restructuring completes but the Company is unable to raise Additional Funds of at least US$50 million and secure US$40 million infrequently recurring revenue in pipeline by 30 June 2018 then based on the projected cash flows of the Group, the Company will, within the 3 months following 30 June 2018, be highly likely to be unable to pay its creditors, as and when they fall due for payment. In the event that the Company is unable to meet such obligations as a result of the failure of the Restructuring to complete or the failure to raise sufficient Additional Funds, the Directors would likely seek to place the Company into some form of insolvency proceeding, or a creditor may take action to enforce or initiate an insolvency proceeding. Any such proceeding would be likely to result in little or no value for Shareholders. I like your optimism and hope your right... but disagree the January RNS states the above two paragraphs and definitely it doesn't mention needing 50m by June 2018 or it cant pay its obligations.

coming it now plus what looks like a 40k buy yesterday evening (could be a sell). Either someone with a deep pocket for a punt or someone in the know. Hopefully the latter

Its all very complicated now and really only those with the legal knowledge and deep experience can foresee whats going on. We as holders are being asked to sign off and approve that the takeover can be done without any offer to shareholders. Is this because there is simply no value anyway and therefore the only chance of survival is this method for the debt for equity swap. Then you ask yourself if the swap completes and somehow they get another 90m will the new owners de-list leaving the shareholders with nothing anyway. There is value in the company because they have paying customers and infrastructure but the debt is crippling so will there be some kind of break up and all the good bits get bought by someone and again the shareholders get screwed. Assuming the current bondholders have first dibs on insolvency why would they swap for equity and basically become the same as us with everything to lose. So is it a foregone conclusion that it will go bust or has that element of the swap already been signed so they cant back out therefore leaving avanti in a strong tactical position to ask for more cash or say good by to any chance of getting money back. Lots of twists and turns here and I 100% agree that the requirement for more money required as part of the restructure is new news and really dishonest not to have been disclosed before the hylas 4 launch.

Agreed I don't recall information before today suggesting they need 90m to keep the lights on post restructure. Not sure if this is a game to get current lenders to cough up otherwise they get nothing. Never sure in these situations who will actually come out on top. Always feels like those with the most invested get to walk away with a company that has no baggage at the cost of the small PIs. Logic says its time to duck out given what appears to be new info

this is standard behaviour for a stock that actually has no real value (Yet). Its trading on what might be. You have to trade it as a speculative stock. You either trade the news and make some cash or free shares but get out quick and expect it to retrace when all the drama subsides. Overall this has huge potential if they deliver what is expected but most who bought recently weren't buying for the long term they were buying to make 50% on in their investment in a few days. Now those who didn't want to lose any money are jumping ship which always sinks the price especially on a stock that is potentially a couple of years profitability. Those who are prepared to take a long term punt may look to buy around these prices and leavie it in the bottom draw for a few years. imo of course

now i know who got to scott77 before me :)

a lot bought in on the hype and are now feeling the pinch. This could have massive upside but could also fail altogether. I hope no one bet their shirt on it and if they did they have the courage to hold out until its return. Could take a good year or two or could get another boost by a bit of news here and there. Its very easier to get caught up in the fun but when it drops back so quickly it does make you feel like a bit of a muppet... time will tell

yesterday. Is this because the remaining secured note holders are not responding to the debt for equity swap proposal. I am trying to get my head around the impact of all this. Obviously there is massive dilution of the share issue but the net affect is neutral because a large portion of the debt neutralised. This in theory reduces large amounts of money going out on debt repayment and interest. thus allowing the business to pay down the remaining debt and build more business and contracts. Very difficult to judge if this is the end or a good chance of a new beginning. ??

they have certainly hobbled along for many years so it is definitely conceivable that they are prepared to do it again. Scary times and I don't think I can justify jumping in at these prices with so much uncertainty. Even a new 6 month or year contract is far from a certain future given the in roads to solar and hydro expansion..

https://www.cameroonweb.com/CameroonHomePage/business/ENEO-to-supply-gas-to-power-stations-in-Douala-316846 The original announcement of the power deal is worth a read. Essentially what has changed. Nothing from what I can tell. So it all boils down to whether the Cam gov will stomach power failures to avoid paying out more cash for core services. Strange approach for a gov trying to increase foreign investment etc Scary thought is the gov trying to back VOG into a corner to eventually lower prices or even push them into some kind of sale or partnership. Wouldn't be the first time a gov has ruined a company for its own gain.

http://www.businessincameroon.com/electricity/1202-7781-cameroon-societe-generale-cameroon-to-lend-cfa108-billion-to-government-for-the-construction-of-transmission-lines-in-douala seems the cameroon gov are writing cheques and doing deals with others without considering their existing arrangements. They talk of Dam extensions and solar farms etc but surely these things are years away. Presumably there are power failure occurring now if gas is switched off. Perhaps they are hoping to hang out for another few months when the gas requirements drop dramatically and they can go another year without VOG gas.