Member Info for Scott22

Chex response was as expected, not as executed. Though I guess the shares were mowed down for sure. With a Tommy gun (old timer for AR-15).

KingSuarez: Selloff not surprising. Does not change long term prospects of the company but short term disappointing for many reasons. Uncertainty of how much production and when. A lot of water on zone 2. Memories of Chinook, even today only thing clear about Chinook is that it needs a couple more wells before we know what hey have. It is clear we need a couple more Royston wells. Trinidad needs more gas - want to find another gas supply somewhere on block. Lots of reasons that the response was as executed. Also a few reasons why this might be yet again another buying opportunity. I bought today. I am going to keep adding under US $2.00. I am just getting tired with the ultra long duration of this buying opportunity.

Lexicon: Zone 2 written off, yes. As was Chinook. Zone 3 (shallowest) currently being tested) also written off because as you recall it has the same high resistivity as Zone 2 (compared to Zone 1 -deepest - which had less). The high resistivity was supposed to mean gas not oil but was due to water. So why won’t zone 3 also be high water cut? That is being assumed.

TXP will get no price benefit from this until production is established and reflects in revenues. Simple because the production and revenues are just speculation at present.

T

And we get a littl break since we don’t have to even think about any news it until Monday morning before market opens in London. That is about 2:30 am where I am CST in US.

The RNS will not be late, it will come when it comes. But it is not particularly timely. Hoping it will be simple and straightforward and clean, as predicted. The only negative we have are the cautionary comments by Shipka in the first Royston discovery RznF, when he said porosity was not like Cascadura but was like other producing wells on the trend Even Shipka was all positive in the RNS detailing the light oil discovery in the first and deepest test / of the intermediate sands.?That was the crappy rock and it still flowed. This is the good rock and the largest amount of pay that they are testing right now in the second of the three planned tests. The third planned test looks just like the second only not as deep and not as many feet of pay. So this is the big one. See you all early Monday morning when our vigil resumes.

2101 new shares. Someone from company must have chuckled posting that on the website.

Anyone else get fooled about Paul’s 2101 be shares. Clicking on that new RNS link was disappointing.

Shares are sure not trading up in anticipation of the results. They are trending down in fear of the results. That should not be the case if this is the most exciting well of a 35 year career. I may fill my US $1.80 limit order today. Almost filled yesterday.

MJ - They won’t wait until the recorder data is fully analyzed - that takes weeks and is done by in house analysis and external independent analysis to give reservoir size and project initial production rates from this well. What the will have is pressure at maximal drawdown and rate at which pressure recovered and whether reservoir associated with well is unbounded, which it surely should be if the 7.2. by 1.8 kn structure is charged with liquids filled gas. That is enough to confirm commerciality of the well and the field.

ADVFN Board also reporting that Paul was in apparent good spirits at the Big Data forum, appearing with the energy minister and chummy with him as has been the recent case.

So we are either all right, or Paul took a zoloft this morning, or Paul is just naturally a very good poker player. Maybe all three?

highlandmatt:

I did add a little at US $1.86 this morning. Have a bid in at US $1.80. I am actually getting sick of buying TXP. Would like this comfortably above US $2.00 so I can just watch and wait and find another spot for new money to go. But right now I am having trouble finding a better idea than TXP below $2.00.

I am buying a little BEPC in another account but that is a different deal looking for safe long term income with some potential for growth of dividend over time. I am following Helium1 as a return from the near dead play. Trouble is the near dead can become the dead. I am adding to Royal Helium a little. I have been adding to Frontier Lithium but have paused buying that - have an okay position to benefit going forward. I love CEQP as an undervalued income vehicle - but I have enough. Not much else is appealing to me (though always open to ideas). I have actually put a little more into cash to cover some obligations coming in next 18 months.

I have been following that board a little. At least Greta did not tie herself to the the Royston pipe like she did at some well in Morocco (according to that board anyway). That would be a novel excuse for a one week delay. Better than the dog ate my homework.

Won’t be late in any event. Just not timely.

If the whole procedure yielded nothing why wait to report it. I am just worried the findings have a twist and it will take more work and more wells to fully define what they have. That should not be the case with the most exciting well of PB’s 35 years in the business.

Not good. But not bad if RNS comes tonight. Or later this week though that will be a little frustrating. But better late with super results than on time with poor results. Like I have said, I am looking for simple straightforward result with no surprises, no drama. They said Royston was a textbook drill. I am looking for a textbook completion, testing, and reporting.

dorfan1
I agree that understanding with government f Zambia was HUGE, one if not biggest moment in history of Jubillee. But the Zambia government wanted some help and some plan (with other inputs too) to deal with the lead and zinc tailings that would remove the toxic lead from the tailings and help remediate the tailing dumps and clean up a huge environmental catastrophe. They were not simply interested in Jubilee ramping copper production from other tailings sites. Progress on that front would be great for company and for Jubilee. I suspect it is not easy, and just disturbing the site and digging and trucking the tailings could aeroselize even more lead.

Hopefully getting the wording exactly right. Simple, straightforward clean. No surprises and no qualifications.
Something like this (my best shot or maybe my dream only - numbers in parentheses are place holders) :

<
Following completion and a clean up period, the well was shut in and pressure built to (3000) psi at surface, estimated (7000) psi reservoir pressure). Well was then flow tested at various choke sizes including an extended 24 hour flow test.

The average flowback rate during the extended 24-hour test period was approximately (5,000) boe/d, including (25) MMcf/d of natural gas and (500) bbls/d of NGLs.

Approximately (50) MMcf of natural gas (8500) boe) and 1,100 barrels of NGLs were produced during the testing period.
Field analysis indicated liquids rich gas with no hydrogen sulfide and no produced water.

The well was then shut in for extended pressure build up testing . That testing is complete and the downhole recorder has been retrieved. Results from the pressure build up test will be analyzed by company and by independent analysis to determine reservoir size and expected initial production rates.

Attention has now been turned to the third planned test at Royston 1 of a separate and higher overthrust sheet at the top of the Gr7a Herrera sands which has shown 62 feet of net pay in an 84 foot interval. Results from this third test are expected before the end of the year. >>

Drilling it off the same pad with directional drilling (nice challenge for the Star Valley rig) would be awesome and would simplify everything. They have showed another pad location on their corporate presentation for some time, slightly north and west of current pad). But maybe that is just the intended well location and they can reach for it. Maybe we will get an update on their plans for that scheduled second Coho well pretty soon.

Do they have permit for second Coho well?

They said a while back that it is "scheduled". Just me but if it doesn't have a start date it is not scheduled. If they don't have a permit it is certainly not scheduled. Even at the time they said it I assumed it was penciled in on planning agenda wish list.

Is the well pad built for the second Coho well? They would have to run a collecting line (extension) from the second Coho well pad to the first. Building that extension would be the responsibility of the NGC. That would probably need a permit too. There are so many little details that I can't see that it is an easy thing to drill another Coho well right after Christmas. Hate to say it but it would be easy in the Montney or the Permian. (But then it would have been done two years ago.)

On the positive side that is what I like about the broader Cascadura plan for that much larger and more complex field. All the permitting is being accomplished in one step, for two additional well pads and six to eight more wells and all the facilities. Also to build the liquids pipeline connections (TXP responsibility) and the gas pipeline connections (NGC responsibility).

Do they have permit for second Coho well?

They said a while back that it is "scheduled". Just me but if it doesn't have a start date it is not scheduled. If they don't have a permit it is certainly not scheduled. Even at the time they said it I assumed it was penciled in on planning agenda wish list.

Is the well pad built for the second Coho well? They would have to run a collecting line (extension) from the second Coho well pad to the first. Building that extension would be the responsibility of the NGC. That would probably need a permit too. There are so many little details that I can't see that it is an easy thing to drill another Coho well right after Christmas. Hate to say it but it would be easy in the Montney or the Permian. (But then it would have been done two years ago.)

On the positive side that is what I like about the broader Cascadura plan for that much larger and more complex field. All the permitting is being accomplished in one step, for two additional well pads and six to eight more wells and all the facilities. Also to build the liquids pipeline connections (TXP responsibility) and the gas pipeline connections (NGC responsibility).

After aquiring the Ortoire block they did spend a couple of years analyzing all the available data from every well previously drilled a n the block. Plus the limited seismic. Plus other data from on-shore and off-shore Tiny dad. Not technically “big data”but still a big amount of data for a little company. XM’s modeling of the turbidite sands did use a lot of computing power for simulations and modellng, as he was getting his PhD and presenting his stuff at international conferences. .

On November 8, PB promised results within three weeks from second test at Royston, biggest of) two overthrust sheet believed to be liquids rich gas in commercial quantities.

Paul have a also on a panel with Energy Minister Stuart Young on November 30. Talking about big data in the energy sector. Can’t imagine Paul wants to show up on 30th late with widel expected results. So I am thinking 15% tonight, 45% Sunday night, and 20% Monday night. Only 20% chance Paul shows up to conference Tuesday morning facing questions about why the results are late.