Member Info for Scott22

buzz: uninvestable until the final results?

Final results of what? A well with a commercial discovery?

Before that will come recent seismic results, announcement of the drilling partner and drilling plan, then some progress reports, then spudding of the well, then the announcement of a discovery. Then the flow tests and pressure build up studies that will confirm commerciality.

If you wait for the final results, assuming positive, then a stake in the company will be less risky, but it will be much more expensive.

So it all depends on what investable means. This is a speculative investment. You could lose all. But you could also gain more by being in at an early stage where a series of events have to occur for it to come to fruition. You do your own due diligence and assign a probability to those steps actually happening.

I own TotalEnergies for example. They make money and pay a nice dividend. They won't go to zero. They are even a potential partner for Helium One since they are active in Tanzania and have drilling operations in the country. And they are looking to expand into green areas. BUT - no way will I make 5 times current TotalEnergies share price in next decade. Cannot happen. On the other hand if the story unfolds without (more) glitches, Helium One will be up five fold from here before it gets to what you are calling investable.

Diversification includes asset class, sector, size of company, geographic location, and also risk. And more. Most everything is investable, just getting the right mix is not easy. I guess it is not investable if it is fraud or if the balance of risk and reward is terribly tilted in wrong direction. But I do not think either of those conditions is true for Helium One.

Thanks. I thought it would be milder. It felt a bit harsh to realize that I was sicker because I am older. Seems obvious but I have had some denial.

MJ: Try to keep it to TXP. It is just so easy to get sucked in to responding posts that are misinformed, and so hard to keep remembering that accurate information in our current time is not more effective in persuasion than pure garbage. Does not even matter. There is no appreciation of expertise or hard earned actual knowledge. Anthony Fauci is a bum. Tucker Carlson is a savant.

US deaths right now from omicron are 2400 a day. Vaccines are wonderful and have prevented massive numbers of deaths. During delta surge and during current surge. I am 73, double vaccinated, boosted - had omicron Jan 10, 2022 and had high fever for a few days and was severely short of breath for a week with cough and congestion. Now 90% better. And 100% grateful for vaccines.

See I got sucked in. I would not have except for my recent experience. I won't again.

Troajan: A lot of people are going after helium for sure. A lot of it as by-product of massive Natural gas fields as in Qatar and Russia - expensive to extract and concentrate and purify - and lots of hydrocarbons. For good and bad. Australia falls there too as hydrocarbons with increased fraction of helium (and hydrogen in some cases) still the main deal.

Then there are relatively pure sources of helium mainly with nitrogen (no carbon footprint). Saskatchewan is intriguing - helium concentrations of 0.5-2% in best cases with no hydrocarbons but primary helium wells. Industry is developing. I like RHC but they seem to be having a little trouble producing their biggest find (thick Nazarre formation at Climax)) and the typical saskatchewan wells have thin slices of resource with relatively low production per well. Saskatchewan has stated goal of providing 10% of global helium requirement.

Then there is Arizona Holbrook basin, also promary helium wells, which produced in the past and has DME is trying to get it going again.

But to me Helium 1 on Tanzania is most exciting of the pure helium plays. Resource is just so huge. There is a chance here to have something big and important. Helium 1 also has stated goal of supplying 10% of global helium, requirement. But that might come from considerably less infrastructure than in Saskatchewan. And it would turn Helium 1 (and partners) into a big deal in helium world. Might happen, might not. But seems as plausible or even more so than some of these other avenues to more global helium production. And the benefit to helium 1 incrementally is likely to be more than for many of the other possibilities. So my helium bet is 90% Helium 1, a 10% dollop of RHC. I had some DME (about same amount as RHC) at one point but sold it at a good profit - partly I didn't like management that much.

Smasher: I forgot (for a minute) the Cascadura liquids). And that brings up the little liquids to the south pipeline they will build which goes right by Chinook and increases the likelihood they will drill an up dip well there and maybe actually prove a Chinook oil discovery. That is likely a 2023 event. But still, plenty to hope for a smashingly successful 2022. Best to all.

davidblack: Good points all. I also think that Paul was saying at the last presentation that company talking about positives right now is just not going to be that helpful. He straight out asked everyone to focus on March 14 and have someone outside of the company talking about some independent and quantitative numbers (RESERVES UPDATE) that will reflect what the company is accomplishing. And in parallel there will be news like Coho hook-up (as anticlimactic as that is), production results from first three wells of legacy program, starting new Coora drilling, later moving Star Valley rig over to Royston site and start of 2 well program there, progress on Cascadura field development plan and expected timeline for hook-up and then development drilling) , update on post Kraken work plan (Steelhead, Guabine), maybe even some news on bid round. Then starting this quarter and increasing every quarter - progress on growing production and revenues and profits. This quarters revenues will include production from 3 new legacy wells and some addition from Royston trucking, Q2 will include 2 new Coora wells and hopefully a whole quarter of Coho. Q3 may include a month or more of Cascadura cash and Q4 should have full quarter of Cascadura cash.

What is not to like about how this is setting up for 2022 and 2023.

TXP is a bargain under US $2.00. I am putting all my new cash here and I have been slowly but steadily adding. I haven't sold anything to make a bigger incremental jump in TXP holding, but I might. I wish it would get to $2 already so I can just sit and watch (that is my plan), but if it had done that earlier I would have a lot fewer shares.

mbarnholdt: And he sort of alluded to the fact that people might not totally believe a positive take from him at this point, not to the same degree as they might from a serious independent engineering firm. He has been over the top positive at times and things have been slower to prove out and get rolling than he has has promised. But I still believe that Cascadura is a monster gas field and that Royston is a big and exploitable oil field. But hearing that on a reserve report from an experienced independent engineering firm is going to have more power at this point. Think March 14.

I thought Paul was pretty clear that the the results of the extended flow test would be used to inform the independent reserves and production estimates to be delivered on March 14 and would not be discussed in any detail before then. I think he said that he didn’t want the numbers to be slightly different (therefore confusing) and that he wanted the increased market credibility of the analysis and interpretation being done by respected independent engineering firm. I am going to go back and listen again to that part of the presentation but that was the impression I got.

Hi Trek,

Funny but my conviction in TXP is growing not shrinking. I am not always right but I still think that I am here. The stroy is intact and we are early in the story. Cascadura is a massive gas pool (a TCF a believe when the development wells are drilled) that will provide the wall of cash that will allow the company to continue to drill a mix of development wells and further exploration and fund all that from cash flow. Royston and beyond.

So added more today at US $1.17. Will continue to add as long as TXP below US $2.00 and story is intact.

Tobin: Love this board but keep covid on FB where it belongs, where all the information is totally accurate. Just cannot bear it here.

I do not want to debate any item about covid here. Or read about it here. The total amount of stupidity in the US is staggering. Cannot vouch for Britain but I have no interest in even knowing if stupidity there approaches US levels. Too bizarre.

Hi Trek: Nice to hear from you and totally agree. I have been knocked around a bit by the vid, but I am on the mend hoping to get back on my Specialized pretty soon, if only on a trainer. I got a little sicker than I would have thought, being double vaccinated and booster too. I guess it is my age - that is a harsh (but accurate) thought.

Beautiful sunny day at the Royston well site with a tanker truck loading up.

happysparrow: Thanks. I have actually read that and I have listened to every presentation on-line that XM has done, back to the presentation at Houston academic conference when he was working at Petrotrin, long before he joined the TXP team

Presentation is not up yet. It was real time but the video is always posted very quickly on the Pro-active site and on the Touchstone site. Usually within 24 hours.

It was 120 bopd for each of first two legacy wells. Said they were targeting 80 bopd per well. The third well is ready to perforate.

He didn't say Coho 30-60 days away. He said it would be better if it comes on within 30 days but it would not matter if i was within 60 days. Slightly different, but he stated why it really didn't make any difference to them anyway.

It is actually fun to listen to, especially for those of us who have a lot of background that we have lived in real time, the highs and the lows. For me since exactly 01/11/2013. I do appreciate the posters on this board.

I love XM and I have really gotten more interested in geology because of him.

mbarnholdt: Paul is saying it is a little scratch, or at the most a paper cut at the worst.

I hope you listen to the presentation. Paul was the best that I have seen him and I have listened to every presentation he has done. He had covid last week and just recovered. Maybe that is why but he was really focused. And XM and the whole team put a lot of work into explaining the geology. My conviction was strong, and it is stronger now. I buy the story. I am going to keep adding TXP under $2.00 as I have stated many times, and as I have steadily continued to do.

2022 money machine, development company

10 years in Trinidad, world class team, one of their best assets, enough capital, March 14 reserves report

long term test ongoing, selling oil, will inform engineering report

Hope for July Cascadura sales start, sounds possible. Pipeline will be NGC and should not delay them

New rig doing beautifully, Waiting to start Coora until there is clear path to continuous drilling - Coora, Coora, Royston Deep, Kraken all lined up. (then to cascadura development wells) Will be bringing in additional personnel with right skill sets from Canada - also some other equipment -

Geology slides new and exciting - see XM fingerprints on that.

New January 2022 slide set and whole presentation are awesome. Look at the slides, listen to the presentation once posted.

If you cannot see that, you should absolutely sell and move on. In my opinion.

March 14 will be big day with the independent reserves update.

trading for better or worse:

never hear of valirx