Member Info for Scott22

September 2020

same exactly, I did not start buying again until September 2030 - after Coho and Cascadura proven to be important gas discoveries. If they had both gotten on-line and into production quickly, there is no way I could have accumulated my current position, at least in terms of share count. And all that gas is still sitting there, with a contract to pick it up at the wellhead. So in a real sense it has been a prolonged buying opportunity. But, enough already! Let’s get going. We are early in the TXP story, story not only intact but improving. But someone has to turn some pages.

skittish: good post. you say-like little changed since 2015-2016. And certainly here was strong evidence of a helium system then (though much more data in last year).

What HAS changed:

1. helium price (up) and supply (down) and demand (up, up, up).

2. Majors much more eager to find ways to participate i energy transition, whether
LNG, hydrogen, solar, wind and yes helium.

For those reasons alone some majors might have helium on radar in 2022 when it was NOT on radar in 2015.

rhertig: How about passé-a-grille - on the patio at the paradise grill right across from the Hurricane. Favorite place to watch sunset and they have live music most nights. We are going to be there in March (like we have for last 35 years). March 14 might be a night to celebrate - or commiserate as the case may be.

Meanwhile they really have to get Coho hooked up. I know it doesn’t matter when in terms of $$. But now that is just getting ridiculous. It has gone from a minor irritation to an annoyance to something symbolic regarding their ability to execute - and now it is starting to become a personal mental health issue.

rhertig: wish that I could. December and January have been brutal cold and dark. Have fun.

Kieth Oz: I appreciate that point of view too and it might work out.

The risk is that they could drill 2 wells and run out of money and won't have anything left to jump start the production anyway. They need 50 million for a modular plant and the trucks and some limited infrastructure in Dar Es Salaam will cost something. With the right deal now they could eliminate the risk of running out of money during this year's drilling program which hopefully will be more aggressive than last year. Plus they won't have to scramble to assemble the $ to bring in first module and start trucking. And there is always the possibility that there is a better field development plan, once they have a proven commercial discovery.

Whatever happens I am good with it. I trust that DM is going to do his very best to solve the equation. And his interest is aligned with ours.

Goldstinger: I would not be happy with a 20 pence sale. It is a huge stretch from my post to that conclusion.

I do think that sale of 25 to even 49% of the company at a fair price to the right partner (one with some stature (or wanting a meaningful place) in international helium market would maybe double chances of getting quickly to that big producer status while this window is open. Would you take double the chances of getting to 5-10 pounds versus half the chance of getting to 10-20 pounds. I think that I might, just given the constrained resources of this company and the need to move fast. It would take the right deal. That doesn't mean I would welcome a 20 pence bid. But what if someone took a 20% interest in the company for 200 million in capex (with some milestones) and right to buy and process and market all the helium that is found. Or something crazy like that.

Could be it is being done and not being shared. Oh well. We will have all of that and more on March 14.

I will be down in Florida walking the beach that week. Two years ago I was there as the covid shutdown was accelerating day after day. I actually went to the last spring training game that was played with the Phillies and Twins at Clearwater. After that I was sitting in the condo buying energy shares hand over fist (OVV, CVE, TTE, others). All of them have done very well . I have owned some TXP shares since 2013 but I had just sat on them for years. I did not start buying TXP again until September of 2020 but that is the one I have kept buying. I have a buy in for Monday. I plan on putting new money here as long as TXP below US$2.00 and the story is intact. (And it is not only intact, it just keeps getting better.) I am hoping that the March 14 TXP report is what makes this next Florida week memorable.

I should add that is far from my usual style or approach. But having been here since the beginning, for some reason it feels right to me for this company and for this time.

I like Void's thesis that time is really of the essence. Rather than drill one well and add a tiny piece of another like they did last summer, it is time to go big. They know so much more. They have results from Tai well to analyze. They have last years seismic and lots of new seismic. They have this new imaging stuff. They have new had some time to work on everything.

Better to find a partner and put together a high volume program that will answer the questions of commerciality and scale right away. Then they can either put one module in the field late in 2022 to get some cash flow going - or make 2023 the year of big time production ramp by designing the whole system that will be needed for robust and durable production. Best to grab a piece of the worldwide helium supply chain right now. The aim is 10% of global production. Prove it is there this year, plan to really ramp production next year.

Void, I'm with you. Go big or go home. Roll the dice now. Worst that can happen is to fail more quickly which might be less painful than doing a little each year and then after 5 years realize it is not as great a resource as they (and we) think it is.

How many trucks a day. They all have to leave by one road. We need someone to put a surveillance camera with a motion detector along the road. Would only take a few minutes to review all the vehicles coming and going over a day.

I have one of those on my deck up at my cabin in the woods. I can quickly check every critter who has made an appearance.

The testing of various beans does mean that down hole pressure is high and that the well is flowing good. If flow rates are too high the flow is turbulent and erratic. With just the right choke the flow is laminar and optimized and steady. That is what I have been told at least. The worker in the photo has three different beans in his hands. One says 8/32. Another seems to say 16/32 but doesn't look that much different and might be 6/32. Hard to see any markings on the third one.

In the press report of the third Royston test the company mentions multiple choke sizes. They tested 84 feet of the overthrust sheet. They started at 10/64 choke with down hole pressure of 7100 psi. At 20/64 choke the well flowed 1368 bbls of fluid per day. They shut the well in and then flowed it with 20/64 and 40/64 choke sizes but do not give flow rates with those choke sizes.

So 8/32 would be 16/64, just smaller than the choke size that flowed 1368 barrels per day (of which 40-60% was oil. If the other one says 16/32 (not sure) that would be a lot bigger and would flow higher.

Anyway, we will have those numbers March 14.

mbarnholdt: Good question. I am not sure of that. If I once knew, I have forgotten. I don’t think so but that would be another early cash boost while waiting for Cascadura. After Cascadura more cash w i’ll be coming in every month than they are spending. Regardless if Heritage piece is being deducted right away. Again I think that is the case.

And yes they were carried on the first 5 well exploration program (Coho, Casca, Casca Deep, Chinook, and Royston1).

Heritage is not carried on second exploration program. (Royston Deep, Kraken, Steelhead, Guabine, Bass) They are not carried on any development wells. So that reduces capex by 20% going forward. Which is only fair because TXP gets 80% of the production, so they should incur 80% of cost. That contribution from Heritage also applies to drill pad facilities and any liquids pipelines and to transportation costs. For natural gas NGC pays all costs to the wellhead and TXP and Heritage split the payments 80/20.

dai: I'm too dense. But I do appreciate all the info , even the stuff that flies by me. I haven't bought any shares recently so that's maybe why I have not paid huge attention that that issue. When they resolve the invoices and get their auditors to sign off, that should settle that issue, right? It is not surprising that a company has some contested financials or even big legal claims in some cases. Usually that can be accounted for. In case of Helium One the amount of money involved does not seem huge.

Quarterly reports are not that big a deal. Just need to have good financial systems in place. Good companies have financial reporting that is timely, predictable and transparent. Investor get the information on the same day each quarter in the same format with a similar discussion related to company goals and progress toward those goal.

All it takes its the will to do it. It is actually easier than doing every report as a one off, like it has to be invented each time.

Dai: I did not seem to overpay based on the comparable London trades on same day of my trades. Best to all and looking for an interesting and successful 2022 year for Helium One. There will be some twists and turns and bumps in the road, but I think they will make progress toward their stated goal of becoming an important global helium producer supplying 10% of the world's Helium. The next step is a commercial discovery. Then getting a clear plan toward production. Then having actual sales.

If that happens the shares will be worth a lot more than 10 pence.

Dai: I am not sure. I bought them through Schwab with a limit price and an all or nothing instruction. I made 13 separate purchases that way to accumulate my 130k holding. I had tracked US HLOGF shares and were always zero up to my first buy. Even now only 70k a day trade that way. I don’t fully understand how it works but it did work.

dai: I think I bought the first OTC shares - My first 10,000 share buy at 10 cents US showed up as the total of shares traded that day and were the first US OTC volume I had seen. That’s my story, probably not true but appeared to be.

gogs: sorry if I missed the point