Member Info for Scott22

Where did you get the info that Royston1 is flowing on the extended test. If so they also have all the data from the 7 day pressure build up test, though that will have to be analyzed and not likely to be reported soon.

It would be nice to have some old fashioned boots on the ground type of information about the number of trucks per day leaving the drill pad, if only for entertainment. Likely one could place a video cam on the road (only one way out) and then do a super high speed video review to check how many trucks per day.

Happy New Year everyone. Hopefully Happier New Year. It has been a crazy time but still in a strange way it has given me even more appreciation for all the good things in life.

TXP won't hit my US $3-5 end of year 2021 target. But still could hit my US $5-10 end of year 2022. (And I did shift those targets back 6 months to July 2022 and July 2023.) I still really like the story. The story is intact. I like XM and PB and the whole TXP team. TXP is my highest conviction small cap high risk/high reward situation. I just want it to get over US #2 so I can quit buying it for a while and just watch the story unfold. There are a couple other holdings in this space that I want to add to - but I can't bring myself to buy them over TXP when TXP is sitting in this price range.

That is a number, would help if it was flipped to buy side

Every company (and their stock price) has times when new numbers are needed. Promise of future developments and future estimates become less and less effective, especially with long delays and missed timelines.

So what numbers would help?

1. Coho on production at xx mmcf/day.
2. Royston-1 trucked xxxx bo in first week of prolonged testing interval.
3. Four legacy development wells are producing at xxx, xxx, xxx, and xxx bopd.
4. Maybe some reserve update numbers in next few months.

That is about all I can think of in next few months. Sooner or later we will have a few numbers from Royston Deep, a few more numbers from prolonged test at Royston 1, then hopefully by end of summer some production numbers from Cascadura 1ST and Cascadura Deep. Then we will start to get meaningful revenue increse muimbers.

We are in need of more numbers.

Paul is wishing us prosperity in new year. Kind of unusual in an RNS. Maybe he realizes that some piece of that depends on him. ??

Water well systems usually are truck or track mounted or on trailer. Takes 1-2 days to drill a 400 foot water well. Changes to new location in hours. Very little site preparation. (we drilled one at cabin in remote area about 10 feet from edge of the dwelling.) Costs maybe US $10,000 to max US $15,000. They could drill ten such wells in a month for about US $100,000. Of course they would have to test any discoveries but that would be worth it for sure.

Hope it wasn't a dream, like visions of sugar plums dancing in his head. Merry Christmas all.

Well I filled at $US $1.30 and at US $ 1.25. I have another bid in at US $ 1.20. I am going to follow my plan of buying as able as long as TXP share price below US $ 2.00, AS LONG AS STORY IS INTACT. We are very early in this story. And it is still intact. Here are some of the pieces.

1. Legacy production will increase toward 2000 bopd with improved netbacks. (possible bonus - will they find something in deep test (Hererra) at Coora?).
2. Coho on line soon at 1300 bepd with good margins, guaranteed price, and could increase to 2600 boed with one Coho development well which is scheduled.
3. Cascadurs 1ST and Casca Deep come on-line 3rd quarter at 9500 boed and can easily ramp to 20,000 boed in another year. Plus there are profitable liquids there which will be trucked initially but eventually connect by pipeline.
4. Royston 1 sales from prolonged production test very quickly. (a few hundred bopd). Royston Deep will be drilled end of January to fully test intermediate and subthrust and will go into production immediately when finished. (my guess 500-1000 bopd). Royston development plan then will be developed. That will be a number of Royston wells over a number of years. Royston field could produce 5000 to 10,000 bopd eventually. Oil pipeline (TXP responsibility) very close.
5. Krakken to be drilled first half of 2022. HUGE possibilities though exploratory at this point. Can be produced through same oil pipeline as Royston.
6. Steelhead exploratory well (just south of Royston) planned for 2022.
7.. Guabine exploratory well (south of Cascaddura and Chinook) planned for 2022. That will be on route of Cascadura liquids pipeline running to south. If gas is found NGC will build pipeline extension. If oil is found, it will improve economics of cascadura field liquids transportation.
8. At some undefined point they will drill one or two up dip Chinook wells. If commercial, oil production will be easy with aforementioned Cascadura liquids line going right by Chinook.
9. Then there is Bass and also another 15 exploration prospects less fully defined.
10. They could produce shallow Cruse natural gas at Chinook since they have will have the Cascadura gas line nearby.
11. Maybe they add some adjacent acres in next bid round.

Anyway we are early in this story. ALL of this is still in play. And it does not all have to happen. Because Cascadura alone is worth twice current market cap. Not everyone will agree of course, but tell me which parts of this list are proven impossible at this point in time.

Who would have thought that would be the major issue with the TXP share price.

1. First was Chinook, the 90% water cut dropped the shares in half, even though the company remains convinced there is a big oil pool that can be tapped up dip (as much as 800 feet) in the reservoir.

2. Second was the test of the whole lower part of the overthrust which revealed light oil but a 90% water cut. Shares crashed. Idea was floated that the upper parts of that almost 270 foot vertical test (top was at 9878 feet) might be a lot more oily. But shares crashed.

3. Results of test of upper part (top) of overthrust released today. This test was further up hole. Tested 84 feet starting at 9700 feet and there is still 40-60% water (a big spread I might add). Sheares crashed.

Now remember that the intermediate sheet (below 10,434 to TD at 10,700 still in pay) was water free but not as good rock. It still flowed very well however. It may be good oil producer.

The next well (Royston Deep) to spud in late January (think February) will test entire intermediate sheet starting at 9700 feet and also the sub-thrust as well. We don't know if there will be water deeper in the intermediate sheet or in the sub-thrust.

The comparison with the long producing penal-barackapore field is interesting enough. Nothing wrong with finding a few hundred millions of barrels of oil. Or more. And they have water and as Pail has said most oil production on Trinidad has water. Maybe the intermediate, the subthrust and Krakken will all be water free, a nice Trinidad anomaly. Because I would prefer not to see the "water" word in any TXP RNS going forward.

One of the two rigs will move on to the pad for the end of January Royston Deep drill.

The Star Valley should be done with the fourth legacy well (although they have not yet announced they have completed #3 (second one on WD-8 block) or moved to Coora site. Still unclear if they will do deep test at Coora as part of that fourth development well. In favor of Star Valley rig is that they have contract to use that rig 120 days a year, it will drill the well faster, it is more advanced. On the other side they had to sidetrack the first development well and that was much slower than anticipated.

The other option is the big Well Services Rig that they used to drill Royston-1. Advantages are that Royston 1 well was "textbook" drill and encountered zero problems by report. Also that rig has all Trinidadian crew. Also the Star Valley rig could be used to drill Coho-2 and later in the year could start churning out Cascadura development wells.

All in all I think they will want to cut back to one rig for awhile to preserve cash and also will want to keep the Star Valley rig busy, because it is under contract. It might also depend on how much confidence they are gaining with that rig and its crew.

Anyway, just a tiny sub-plot. Hoping by end of 2022 they have a full blown 2 rig continuous drilling program more than paid for by incoming cash from legacy wells and Coho (1 and maybe 2) and Cascadura (first two wells) , and also first two Royston wells.

I would like to see NO mention of the word water in the release tomorrow (that’s optimism for you - the tomorrow part).

Fear in the air for sure. So far not as extreme as March 2020. Remember that feeling. That month the exact right think to do was it to buy very aggressively. But it didn’t feel like that. I am not saying we are not n the same situation now because valuations are so much higher and there could be a long way down from here to any capitulation bottom. But I am not inclined to sell anything, and I am still buying TXP. I did move enough into cash last summer where I do not have to sell any other assets until beginning of 2023. And I can also selectively buy some stock
if I think the share price has gotten totally nuts. Right now TXP is my highest small cap value idea. For income CEQP has come down enough where it is again compelling.

Assets are certainly there, Cascadura alone is worth twice current market cap. Given favorable assets, there is a great post over on ADVFN board by Spangle 93 (on 12/18) that talks about other important factors to success, given favorable assets. It is very interesting and everyone should read it. Basically think about these important factors:

1. Board and senior personnel

2. Finances

3. External Threats

4.Trading problems

5. Country

6. Terms under which operations are pursued.

That is why everyone can contribute something to board, lots of different knowledge and expertise comes into play beyond evaluating the potential quality and quantity of the oil and gas assets, which is most important.

I will make a few comments about the items above specific to TXP.

1. Board and senior personnel (I love XM and PB is a very good leader. There are many strengths to the team. I have always been a little worried that JW is COB.)

2. Finances (solid, company has managed all this without taking on much debt. Recent small rises have been fairly opportune, they have a path to wall of cash without more dilution)

3. External Threats (not so much right now, world needs oil and especially gas for its transition to green energy, TT needs gas and oil for its economy, oil and gas prices are unlikely to collapse and may significantly increase. Horizon for needing gas is longer than my horizon). Covid is still a threat - although not going away is a little better understood. Energy demand not likely to drop again to levels of early 2020. )

4. Trading problems (share count is a little high, some evidence of manipulation by shorts, in my opinion shares poised for upward movement that will happen with right triggers (flow test 3 at Royston most imminent)

5. Country (Energy minister is solid, current focus on importance of more gas supply and health of oil industry as well as critical to the economy. Tax and royalty situation has been bad, but some movement in right direction seems possible. )

6. Terms under which operations are pursued. ( I like the contract with NGC that is fixed rate at high margin and obligates NGC to get pipelines to the well heads at their expense (including all approvals). The proximetry of oil pipeline to Royston and Krakken and Steelhead (and also a convenient route for piping of liquids from Cascadura that goes right by Chinook and Guabine) are all very favorable potentially. )

Many more items for discussion. Merry Christmas. Happy Monday which may impact that. (just financially, not the most important parts).

Mr Market does not like uncertainty or transitions that well. So likely we will stagnate a bit until this plays out. I have not thought of this as a short term play and this does seem to be more of an opportunity to move forward rather than a threat to have the story veer off the tracks.

Thanks for sharing, I had not seen that story and would likely have missed it. Pretty interesting for sure. I'm still buying, slower pace but I did add at 10,000 at 9 cents US last week. Have a bid in at 8 cents. Might as well do some fishing of my own.

Has to be tomorrow before market- or more likely Monday or maybe Tuesday before market. Or it will be late (not late but just not timely, as in the time Paul promised).

Much more likely Monday because Paul change the expected timeline from 10 days to two weeks. Ten days would be today so news tomorrow. Two weeks would be Monday so technically news Tuesday am. But I am a little hopeful they might do release on Monday morning - good time for an RNS, two weeks from the actual date the two week timeline promise was given.

In the end it does not matter. As before I am hoping for something simple like - Test flowed light oil at 700 barrels per day - pressure build up tests indicate commerciality - the well will immediately go on long term test during which produced oil will be trucked. Preparations are underway to drill Royston 1 Deep in first quarter immediately followed by Krakken well. Once those results are available a long term plan for Royston/Krakken development will begin with goal of completion by end of 2022 . Cascadura development drilling will ramp up during 2022 with Royston development drilling to follow in 2023.

That kind of a press release would end my under $2 buying opportunity for good. I do have a limit order in today and also for tomorrow. I'll keep buying as long as under $2.

TXP is such a fantastic story - just consider if even half of the recent SA piece is true, and that does ring pretty true to me after following closely for years.

But right now TXP has almost no credibility.

We are waiting on test results from Zone 3 at Royston either Friday or Monday. . Signally has been very strong that results will be positive. No one seems to believe that the results will be good or even that the results will come on promised timeline. There is also a longer presentation planned for Jan 20, 2022 including Q and A. No one seems to believe they will report much progress then either.

Anyway these two events - ESPECIALLY the RNS and comments on Friday or Monday - could be huge in building a little credibility. Or not.

That brings back an ancient memory. On the very first stock message board there was a story about counting trucks leaving a factory to get insider (okay outsider) information. Does anyone remember that story ? Decades ago.

Actually I guess it is only part of an ancient memory because my memory decades later is little poorer. Maybe the story came from an early Peter Lynch book.

Anyway there is only one road out of the royston site. They would have to be loading any produced oil onto a truck since they don't have other tanks on site (I think that is true). When the truck is full it would have to drive away. But I think I can wait a week and get more formal update.

I have had a limit order in at that price for a long time for another 10,000 shares with all or none instruction (there is $50 charge whether you buy 100 shares or 10,000. Finally filled yesterday. Shares are really sagging at bottom of a channel. This is a wonderful buying point IF the story unfolds positively (a major helium discovery this year and a fast track to a first production module in 2023). There is also possibility that it all might fall apart if they do not have commercial discovery with this next round of big rig (appropriate) drills.. Because they will run out of money if that happens - it would to hard to envision a round 3 of drilling in 2023 without new money and new ownership. That being said, there is not huge risk of bankruptcy right now. They have ZERO debt and cash in the bank over 10 million pounds. The risky companies I have owned (and this is a risky company) that have actually gone bankrupt have all taken on substantial debt to move forward toward an exciting future state that did not materialize. Here the exciting future state is a commercial helium discovery. That is sort of a binary process in 2022 - yes or no depending on the results of the second drill campaign, whether 1,2 or 3 wells. Everyone in the company wants that to happen and in this case the government and indeed whole country wants helium 1 to pull this off too. That is not always the case.

Anyway, a company never goes bankrupt with no debt and cash in hand. So there is a little safety (relative safety) for these shares at least through 2022.

I am willing to keep buying here but He1 is also a tiny fraction of my portfolio. Situations like this have potential to add wealth, and have potential to fail and become worthless. Happy New Year to all. It will be happier if Helium 1 finds a huge pocket of helium under that thick Karoo seal.

Is the big Well Services 80 rig still on the Royston Drill pad?
Or was it moved off the pad? Will they drill
Royston Deep and Krakken wells with that rig or will they move the Star Valley rig over there. Next year one should be doing exploration and one should be drilling Cascadura development wells, at least by mid year.

The WD4 development well presumably had less than 100 bopd since Paul said that current legacy production was currently around 1400 bopd. Hopefully the two WD-8 wells will be stronger. I am sure they are more expensive rather than less expensive with the Star Valley Rig as compared to smaller rigs they used for legacy drills in past. Drilling 4 legacy wells every year should be 10 days apiece or less.

Good lord, my fingers are too fat or too slow to write messages on a smart phone.

SHARE response was as expected.