Member Info for Scott22

we know the intermediate sheet is at depth of about 10,000 feet. We don’t know how thick it is since they were still in pay at TD.

still it is nice to have a XM affirming “ yup” to brilliant question of “do it’s a massive deep pool?”.

Of course a pool at 10,000 feet is a deep pool And XM is very familiar with new seismic. So i like that he was comfortable with the word “massive” as a descriptor.

Netback is partly about royalty structure and partly about high operating costs. At some wells they have third party independent truckers who visit the wells at necessary intervals and truck the oil. In some areas they have a collecting system they hook in to.

For last quarter the royalty expense was $19.36 per barrel and the operating expenses were $15.25 per barrel. They do not count the 20% of production that goes to heritage in these calculations. (the bopd includes only their barrels).

The lease renewal has more favorable royalty structure for new production and total production so the netback should improve somewaht over time even if oil prices stay steady where they are. And of course they do benefit from further increases in oil price.

There are always going to be results pending with everything in the timeline. But these are results that have been signaled as the "most exciting in 35 years" of CEOs experience that will be out in two weeks - that the market is in a "show me' stance about. Best to get that out before doing an immediate raise.

Paul knew all about the Coho schedule and the Star Valley stuck drill at the time he did the Pro-Active presentation that was so over the top. He knew he was coming out with a mixed bag RNS today that would not be that well received. .

The WD-4 results are not exciting to me. They needed a stupid clean development well drilled in 10 days and on to the next one. Having that shallow pay in a zone not productive on that block and having multiple zones that will not be produced and also having a high pressure pocket of gas deep are not the issue. They just were just looking to quickly add 100 (expected) to 250 (great news) bopd to the legacy oil production. WD-4 is a tiny little block where our fortunes are not going to be made. They have to focus on what is important right in front of them, laser focus. They do not need distractions in my opinion. To drill 4 development wells in 40 days without a hitch would have been over the top exciting. And would have been well received.

Agree with your comments. Wall of cash very slow in coming. But they absolutely should not do anything until the Royston results are out. I really hope they are as expected with no drama - gas and light oil, good flow rates, good IP estimates, addition of reserves, convert Royston prospect to proven Royston commercial gas field of huge size. )

If so then they could do a raise at higher price with less dilution. New investors should have to pay something for an addition of that magnitude.

That makes sense M-J. I buy shares OTC in US as PBEGF which always reminds me of our Petrobank roots. It still galls me to see John Wright getting his monthly dollop of free TXP shares after all that trauma that occurred with Lightstream going bankrupt and then reappearing as privately held Ridgeback resources with JW as CEO and the same principals seemingly running and owning the company. They just got rid of the shareholders - and just after assuring everyone that cash flow entirely covered their debt obligations - I guess banks did not agree and would not update covenants. That was a long time ago during period of intense distress in sector.

Anyway, I digress. All that occurred on TSE and not on AIM. AIM is wilder than TSE but sometimes access to capital is easier and TXP has taken advantage of that. Trading volumes higher for whatever that means. As you say that can be a negative, but in some circumstances it can also be positive in terms of liquidity of holdings.

Have a good day.

M-J I am not arguing about TXP as an investment - it is by far my highest conviction stock in this space (small cap, special situations, high risk and high reward). I have held shares since 2014 and I have never sold any, just have bought more and more. I love the story. I follow it closely. I love XM contributions bu also the whole team. It is as good as it gets. The story is not holding this back, it is execution which is not entirely their fault. Coho is a small well and not that important in grand scheme, but Coho has maybe taken on symbolic importance only because they have failed to hit so many specific target dates and it has taken a ridiculously long time to get it to production and sales. Never having to mention the Coho pipeline again will be a good thing.

But you have to admit that AIM is a volatile market place and AIM stocks do react to news and people do profit from these swings, sometimes at expense of small holders. Wishing this was a calmer marketplace where most people park their money long term and share price is much more stable is not going to make that happen. You are certainly not newer in the game to think that AIM is not a place where potential long term holders might have some disappointing setbacks. Some temporary. Some permanent. Running from the temporary setbacks can cost investors a lot of future gains. Running from the permanent setbacks can save investors a lot of their money. It is not always easy.

Good comments M-J but a little pompous.

.....The guys that only last two minutes in a position will likely be leaving shortly, so bye bye. Come back when you learn to read and would like to sit in a long term fundamentally sound position of ownership.

You have to admit that is interesting - that we know exactly where that rig is sitting and that it has not moved even though WD-8 drill pad is ready. All from satellite images. In past would have taken boots on ground and loose lips. So much for the 30% faster drilling time for the Star Valley rig, though that was only one well and their first.

Now we will find out almost in real time if any gas is being flared during testing at Royston. The initial flow test should take only a week. Actual flaring will be a day or two (clean up and then a maximal flow test of 24 hours or so. Then they shut it in for pressure build up tests and then a more prolonged flow test (hopefully with nice flare for more days). They want to get enough information to give indication of what flow rate well can be produced at and also enough data to add some reserve estimates, assuming it is commercial. Paul has said this is mos exciting and important well in his 35 years in the industry. And it is named after his father. It surely cannot be possible that the Royston well it is just 360 bopd at the bottom with promise and potential but need for more wells, and then a couple a zones at top that don't flow well and are not commercial. That would be entirely too much. This next RNS about zone being tested has to be very clean and meet all expectations.

Would have been nice to have a clean well at WD-4 and one of two WD-8 wells already done. At least the rig is okay, just the well was a slow and expensive mess. (don't need a lot of new stuff from a simple development well - deep test is planned for Coora, not for WD-4). Coho production moved back again by only a little but Coho only brings in half a million a month, won't fund a lot. Cascadura will take a while, likely end of 2022 if that. That will be 4.5 million a month, a lot more substantial. (and will grow as development wells are added). But they will be using a lot of cash for drilling and facility building.

Share price for rest of year depends heavily on results of testing of next two overthrust sheets at Royston, especially the next one which is larger of two and comes first. Pretty much has to go as expected (at this point almost as promised). It has to be liquids rich gas that flows at highly commercial rates and turns Royston from a prospect into an important commercial discovery of great size. Obviously this press release is making people a little more worried it won't be that smooth and that straightforward. For now it looks like shares will drop back well below US $2.00 and I will have a few more weeks to build my position at my target buying price.

This RNS is a little frustrating but does not change the story materially. Doesn't and anything we need. Doesn't subtract anything either.

No way will a new plan at Chinook add anything, after everything that has happened there. Great results from an up dip well would be hugely positive, but no one will believe that until it happens, and that is likely a 2023 story.

I missed that - I try to listen whenever XM speaks. Can you give a link (might show up on you tube later?) or at least a little synopsis. Thanks.

..... I can't see why the move to production can't be funded by debt which can be paid within months of Royston/Coho/Cascadura coming online.....

It will be Coho in weeks and then the two first Cascadura wells in a few months. That will provide about 2 million a month. Royston is a 2021 story in terms of results, but a 2023 story in terms of production.

Paul will not borrow money to drill until Cascadura well pad is hooked up and producing. Then he will borrow if necessary to drill the Cascadura development wells. Paul has also said that two rigs is enough to handle. One will be drilling development wells. The second will be drilling exploration wells - and finding discoveries that will need even more development wells. That continuously drilling two rig set up will lead to steadily ramping production and profits to point where they have way more cash flow than they need for capex to run two rigs and build out infrastructure (NGC will put in pipe to get gas at the well heads but there are still facilities to build, NG liquids to separate, ship and sell - and oil which will need facilities, either tanks to store and truck from or separate oil pipelines.

you mean 2.55 CAD

Target was raised from C$3.00 to C$4.00 on October 4 and got another little bump to C$4.50 this morning.

There is room for share price to run and I think that the target will be increased again before end of year , likely right after second Royston test.

I have been happily buying below US $2.00. After the RNS and big jump in London I put in a couple of bids at &1.75 and $1.85 to see what I could catch at the open. Price jumped above $1.75 at open but I did fill at $1.85. Now that we are above $US 2.00 my plan is to sit and watch. Through tests of Royston target zones - and about 10 other things which would be very incomplete list. We are very early in this story.

Rushing out report. There is huge interest in this result and in this well. I threw in a bid for some shares at US $1.75. That won’t fill but I am going to adjust it a bit (or add a second higher bid to try to catch some at $1.90 or below at the open. Actually I am happy to buy up to US $2.00.
At that point I will pause and let the story unfold.

https://energynow.tt/blog/touchstone-announces-light-oil-discovery-in-first-of-three-royston-1-tests?fbclid=IwAR1G7O70ZzSjL5qRtdD8DKfniWcGYJSOBcF_SGmPRog5J2yGQW-QC-c7XK0

https://i.ibb.co/kgnLVwW/TXP-Finncap-Nov-21.jpg

More details from management interview in next day or two

Chill M-J. Just enjoy.

Intermediate sand just tested is separate sand producing light oil with no water and no gas. Now plugged. Next two tests are of two overthrust Herrera sands and they have higher resistivity on wireline testing. They expect liquid rich gas like at Cascadura. Larger prospect being tested now. From these tests they will get flow rates expected production rates for gas and for liquids and will also be able to calculate reserves. They will likely produce the me of the zones, likely the one being tested now. As with cascadura there will be a pause while they do a field development plan to increase production facilities, pipeline access, number wnd location of development wells.

Finding of light oil in intermediate sand is huge and will move shares. Finding of gas and liquids in current test will propel the share price (remember Royston is huge structure 7.2 by 1.8 km). My target of US$ 3-5 by end of 2021 may be conservative. Congrats all.

Whilst also in general agreement, the issuing of new shares at some point starts to be a purely mathematical problem, if they are all issued at very low prices instead of at increasing price points reflective of increasing company performance and prospects.

Jubilee now has nearly 2.5 billion shares. To reach revenues of $1 per share (and to earn a dime a share) would take annual revenues of $2.5 billion dollars. That is a lot of growth. Pump share count up by another billion shares and it becomes that much harder. I know market cap is what matters. I know the purpose of AIM is to raise capital to build a profitable business. But another unintended function of AIM can sometimes be to transfer investor money to the principals or some times (less sinister) just to waste it. I would like them to grow within their cash flow unless the share price is high enough to ensure that the new capital they raise will have good return for the new and the current shareholders.

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NO SENSE to raise money through offerings at this share price. It is best to sell shares when selling price of new shares fairly reflects the current company valuation (or even overvalues that) and new money comes in with hope of robust growth leading to higher valuation. There is much less dilution in that case. There is also more cash to invest in building the company. At this price I would not sell a single new share unless there was a huge liquidity concern (which there is not) or unless interest rates were prohibitively high, which they are not. Run the business, grow the business, report the progress (the numbers). Operations are hard but they seem to be doing that well. Financial reporting is not that hard. Anyone can do it well with a little effort. Timely, predictable, transparent. Works every time.