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Forgot to mention that the testing of the overthrust sheet at Royston (days away) is truly a binary event. If the test is non-commercial, then I will get a much longer interval to buy below US$ 2.00 and likely a chance to get some bargain shares much lower.

Increased to C$4.5 just based on results of testing of intermediate zone. That would be US$ 3.53 .

I have been sticking to my plan of buying TXP shares as long as they are under US $2.00. Bought a few more at 1.95 this morning. Hoping when the results are out on Royston overthrust sheet being tested right now (days away) that this buying window is closed as shares are rerated to a higher level. Not to say that I couldn’t buy later at higher share price but only after redoing my analysis and comparing TXP at higher price to alternate investment opportunities.

Exxon (consortium) had first big commercial well the Liza-1 in May 2015. It started producing in December 2020. That field has billions of barrels of oil.

But it took a long while to get there. Guyana's offshore Guyana Basin and the inland Takatu Basin attracted foreign companies such as Shell, Total and Mobil since the 1940s, and they completed much geological surveillance of the area and drilled a number of wells.

Offshore oil exploration began in the 1950's, and 9 off shore wells were drilled between 1965 and 1970, only one of which struck oil. In the late 1980's, Mobil, Total, Guyana Exploration and BHP continued off shore exploration in the region. Exxon began exploring off shore Guyana in 2008 and it took 7 more years to get the great breakthrough well Liza 1. Now it is the hottest exploration area in the world. There have been 23 discovery wells. There are 50 or more additional wells planned. Billions of barrels of oil have been found.

Maybe the first 5 well exploration program for TXP maybe has gone just a little better that we give credit. And the next piece of evidence from Royston (days away) may really be the icing on the cake. I can't even consider the totally wild idea that Kraken might be an Liza-1 look alike. That would be totally nuts. Absolutely insane.

A number of companies tried and failed and walked away from that. Exploration is tough, you don't always get it right on the early attempts. I think Shell was out there for awhile but left. Among others.

Coho and Cascadura as #1 and #2 wells of a five well exploration program based on the idea of turbidite sands (like offshore stuff) onshore in Trinidad - was kind of wild. Cascadura Deep was really a development well so not surprising that worked. Chinook was successful in its own right but not a slam dunk and there is more work to do there. And now Royston. Unexpected light oil in an intermediate sand that was unexpected and has to be more fully delineated. And now the two tests of the overthrust sheets. (one due in days) . If these two tests are ANYTHING like cascadura, this 5 well exploration campaign will be historical for what they found in terms of sheer amount of hydrocarbons but also in terms of defining new concepts o-shore in Trinidad. As Paul has said, ten years of work to get some instant success. And we are all complaining about the slow pace of the discovery and exploitation parts. And there is more to come - Kraken is a whole another level of proving up an un-expected geology on-shore in Trinidad. Many people did not believe that offshore Guyana and Surinam would yield any discoveries. Now they are maybe the hottest exploration areas in the world. I don't know if there are other deep cretaceous prospects on shore Trinidad, but I suspect there are. And we get the very first chance to see if one of them (a very big structure) is full of oil.

smasher - don’t get you point. Why would you be selling if you think the reserve updates will be mind blowing and that Kraken might actually be a monster of a well.

I’m not selling on good Royston news. I will stop buying at US $2.00 because it is my plan. But I might do another full due diligence at that time and up my buy target.

Good points all. I am holding and hope we do see a doubling or tripling as the revenues and profits ramp. I am willing for profits last year to be relatively flat, given covid challenges. But ramping shoulf occur 20-22 and especially 2023.

I said that it would be good if the COULD buy in a billion shares. I also said that I did not think they SHOULD do that, for obvious reasons.

" They could buy in a billion shares for $US 160 million. But right now they need their cash to grow, also a good use of profits."

Lexion - nice post. Might also add that the Royston well was completed in "textbook" fashion with no glitches. They had enough info from open hole tests including wireline and also from continuous mud logs to declare a discovery. They tested lowest zone and found hydrocarbons (light oil). They just have to flow the two upper overthrust sheets and show commerciality. Which seems highly probable based on everything they know.

It isn't like the Royston well is just about to be spud and might encounter any manner of troubles. (Ghost of Chinook lurks but hopefully is about to be put to rest).

Thanks Kaiser B. What you say makes sense. I clearly do not think they are going to add another 27 fold increase in shares.

But having done just that over the last 15 years does make the required future growth per share a little challenging. Maybe it is just me and I am looking at it wrong. Again I appreciate your thoughts. I have bought Jubilee 4 times and I have never sold any. I am just a little frustrated by them issuing new shares and (in my opinion) not doing that well with their financial reporting. The operations have actually been pretty good considering the state of the world during last 2 years. Likely even very good. The story is interesting and has not changed. There are even a couple new positives of which I include increased emphasis on copper and the addition of operations in cyprus if that flies. Expansion into the eastern side of SA operations also likely good. Maybe they can even sell the mining concession and improve their overall financial status that way. I don't think they want to take on the debt over a period of years to open a new mine by themselves.

That would be good. Generating enough cash to buy in shares would be a plus long term. Especially if they could buy them at current price. They could buy in a billion shares for $US 160 million. But right now they need their cash to grow, also a good use of profits. Plus haven't they just issued shares.

Anglo-american by the way has 1.3 B shares. They produce 40% of world's platinum, have have copper, nickel, diamonds and even coal. They have revenues of 30 billion a year (50% of GNP of Zambia).

The shares are $2800. They were $3400 in 2007. Down to $1000 in 2009 they bounced back up to $3400 in 2011. Down to $300 in 2016, they bounced back to $2100 in 2019. Down to $1200 in covid crash of March 2020, they are now up to $2800.

Not the most spectacular wealth creator, though timing is everything and some investors surely have made money. The time to own it was from 2002 ($45) to 2007 ($3400). Anyway I am sure there are examples of companies with 2.5 B shares that have handsomely rewarded investors. Anglo american might not be the very best example.

And I am relatively new to AIM and I believe (after some education) that market cap is most important way to look at these companies. I just think a little caution is warranted. I have an investment here and I think Jubilee is very interesting - producing the right metals that the world needs to go green (PMG and copper and cobalt) from waste dumps (less upfront cost, less energy use, and leaves the environment better). Just would not make a huge investment here because of the implications of the share count which has grown exponentially and is hard to chase (mathematically) with revenues and earnings.

By the way Anglo-american has market cap of about 30 B and Revenues of about 30 B.

Jubilee not directly comparable but has market cap of 550 million with revenues just short of 100 million, though we don't have numbers for year that ended June 2021.

I did not start out with this goal but I have talked myself out of adding any more. (have not sold any and probably won't). Can someone give me the bull thesis here. With some numbers that work. And hopefully the company will supply some numbers soon for last year. (they are not late, just a little untimely).

Royal Helium is particularly interesting. Province is basically going to subsidize about 50% of their costs for exploration and building facilities. Plus do a lot more value in terms of facilitating an organized approach to development of the Saskatchewan helium industry to become a major exporter supplying 10% of world supply (that is the goal by 2030). I wish Tanzania would think about a country wide incentive program as with a little effort they can become a globally important helium producer, if the Helium 1 resource can be proven commercial, hopefully in the next set of drills.

Here are some words from yesterday by Saskatchewan officials and the CEO of Royal Helium. 7 minutes long, second speaker is especially good. Again only listen if you want to. There are some cross connections with Helium 1 and Tanzania as this is an another attempt to drill primary helium wells, totally independent of hydrocarbons. And it is getting some government traction and support, which might be a model that could reduce capital costs for He1 (and also thereby reduce need for dilution).

https://youtu.be/qopwK3R16zY

All this and the shares so far have not moved a nickel. I am buying more. Helium 1 still my best (and biggest) helium investment but it is nice to have a few horses in the race.

It is hard to make enough money to overcome that kind of dilution. At some point there isn't enough money in the world to do that.

If they went from 92 million to 2.5 billion shares (2007 to now) that is a 27 fold dilution.

If they dilute another 27 times from here that would be 67 billion shares and they would have to earn 6.7 billion a year to make a dime a share of earnings. That would take revenues of 67 billion dollars a year which is about the GNP of Zambia.

I am not saying they are going there, but at some point the math falls apart.

But Canaccord has a "speculative buy". If the current tests come in proving that the massive 7.2 km by 1.8 km Royston structure is filled with 1 TCF or so of gas that will flow at highly commercial rates - does not that become a little less speculative.

…..and is TXP really a “mining outfit”. Usually that means solid minerals but I guess it is all natural resources. Just sounds awkward and like they don’t know that much about the company.

Cannacord pretty cautious to raise target from 180 pence all the way to 200 pence.

Let’s see what they are saying - “well TXP has an unexpected light oil discovery at Royston, they might have a massive amount of gas with liquids in the primary target zones at Royston (say 1 TCF) and we will know in one week. And all that maybe increases the odds of a deep cretaceous discovery that might look something like the ones off surinam/guyana which are the biggest thing in the world in oil discoveries and are being exploited by the super majors. Well let’s increase our speculative target by 20 pence. “

Seems a bit cautious.

Made that decision along time ago on Jan 28, 2021.

I did not think that the “opportunity” for sub $2 shares would last this long, and that it would include some shares at $1.05 on August 29, 2021.

On November 8, 2021 we were promised full test results on the first and largest of the two Royston overthrust sheets “within three weeks”.
I am hoping that moved these shares above $US 2.00 for good.

Just for old times sake I got my first 1000 shares on 1/11/2013 (conversion from Petrobank shares) at $US 2.06 and I tripled
my holdings at 64 and 75 cents in November 2013. Then I didn’t do anything but follow along a bit until September 2020. Have been buying since. Steadily and for me heavily.

If TXP does end up over US $10 by end of 2022 (my target) I will deserve some kind of award for persistence, longevity, stubbornness, optimism gene, maybe even stupidity. But the ride has been good and I have learned a lot. Have especially enjoyed Xavier Moonan. Also Paul who has been pretty effective promoter - there have been delays but they keep pedaling and have actually accomplished a huge amount. All my best to all on this ride.

Good Lord. Is their financial reporting TIMELY, predictable and transparent?

NO. If you prefer they are not late. They are just not on time.

https://newsday.co.tt/2021/11/18/advice-to-government-on-oil-gas-bid-rounds/?fbclid=IwAR1z5xtHFOGcw9Zv6O3VWzQkK906O9HPi7NQEmdlMqKjEs3bJaCCbxAevXQ

50,000 shares traded in last 5 minutes as price improved from $C 2.31 to $C 2.37.

For my helium oriented friends - only if you have interest.

1. Royal Helium (RHC.V or RHCCF US OTC.) Testing large thick zone right now at Climax project. As importantly government of Saskatchewan just announced a program to encourage primary helium production in province with goal of 10% of world supply by 2030. There are royalty credits that can be traded for cash and direct re-imbursement of up to 50% of some capital costs. Markedly reduces cash needs of RHC which is great for small cap. I own RHC, about half the dollar amount of my He1 holdings. My target is C $1.50 $ in one year.

2. Desert Mountain Energy (DME.V or DMEHF OTC US) in Arizona, another primary helium producer. I did own them but sold a while back (at nice profit) because I was a littlle worried about management. They have gotten more interesting and shares bounced today. They have some gas that is pretty pure helium and nitrogen that is kind of easy to process. They announced some new numbers on one well with 92 % Nitrogen, 4.17% Helium, and 3.83% hydrogen and no CO2 and no methane or any other hydrocarbon. They announced they have selected GENERON to build a processing plan (solar powered no less)that will take 28-30 weeks to build. I am thinking of jumping back in as it is still below what I sold it for. Have not made that decision yet.