Member Info for Scott22

My last sentence was "There is a clear path".

Got truncated because of my wordiness.

Sturm, thanks - I get what you were saying.

The four legacy wells are development wells, no need for an RNS to announce a discovery. I do think in this case there is a lot of interest because these are the first wells drilled by the Star Valley Rig, which because of covid took a long time (and some great logistics work) to get on the ground in Trinidad and up and running. I do not know the sequence of the four wells and whether they will all be from different pads on different blocks. There will be great interest in drilling time and initial production numbers so hopefully they will let us know. These four wells could have been drilled by a simpler rig, like they have been in the past (program suspended for a couple of years for many reasons including covid, preservation of cash, need to successfully renegotiate the lease contracts on the blocks).

Anyway these wells are like spring training for the new rig, always followed closely, but not the main work planned for the three year contract (120 days a year) for this advanced rig.

I don't know how the deep test on the Coora block is going to work. Will they just extend a legacy well there to sample the Herrera, and then complete it as a legacy oil well? Or will that be a separate 5th well? If Star Valley Rig drills the deep Coora test, it would be an exploratory well, a bigger challenge, and certainly would need an RNS if a discovery well, maybe a natural gas pool very different from the oil targets of the development wells.

Anyway Star Valley, once spring training is over and once Coho and especially Cascadura are hooked up will have a lot to do.

1. Coho development well already scheduled.
2. Multiple Cascadura wells from 2 new Cascadura pads as outlined in the field development plan.
3. Chinook up dip test planned for sometime 2022. (more wells if positive)
4. Maybe some horizontal Cruse drills at Chinook.
5. Three well second phase exploration program - Guabine, Steelhead, KRAKEN) though maybe all that will go to the big Wells Services Rig that just finished drilling Royston.
6. God willing and a Royston discovery confirmed - multiple Royston development wells (more realistically early 2023).
7. 4 more legacy development wells in 2022 and 4 more in 2023.
8. Maybe some more deep drills on legacy side depending on results of deep test of Hererra on Coora block.
9. Eventually another phase of exploration to include Bass . More development wells if discoveries.

I hope everyone realizes that we are so early in this process and there is so much ahead. It is pretty staggering. 100% of that won't work perfectly, but there are also other possibilities that will unfold. The potential to grow production from current 1300 BOED to 25,000 is baked in and to 50,000 or more seems entirely probable. They have said for a long time that they want to be the largest onshore producer in Trinidad and a major producer important to the economy of the country. Th

That is called a world class letter. Thanks for sharing mbarnholdt. Makes me want to go out and buy more shares - but I am already doing that.

Why 3 when they have 4 to drill - seems kind of random.. Why wouldn't they RNS each one or wait for all four?

Is the Star Valley Rig still there? Are they drilling more than one well from that drill pad? Is the commitment for any 4 wells on legacy lands or for 4 specific wells at predetermined sites.

If NGC is really purring in a 20 inch pipe to the Cascadura drill pad, the ultimate capacity of that line could be more than 200 mmcf/day if needed. They can add some compression. Just saying. That is a huge pipe. The mainline across the country that they are hooking up to is a 30 inch pipe.

TXP gets a 20 inch extension hooked up to a 30 inch main line a short distance away - all for free. Just imagine what that would cost if Cascadura was a deep water natural gas discovery!

Agree, commerciality is the key. That issue has been hanging out there since the press release announcing the Royston discovery. The sequence of the two Chinook press releases (implication was another massive gas discovery but it turned out to be water with a trace of oil that could be tested by up dip well far in the future) made TXP cautious in the wording of their discovery announcement, and has made everyone else cautious as well, not assuming too much. And not placing much if any value to Royston in share price. It will be nice to have all that behind us. (Or we will have another cause for PTSD if this is chinook redoux).

Here is how Shipka put it. << The testing results will also provide us with deliverability capability as the porosity measured at Royston-1 is lower than Cascadura but similar to data seen at other offsetting producing wells. >> Note he said offsetting producing wells.

I think it is a six inch pipe. The cascadura pipe is 18 inches which is huge.

NGC contract pays at the well head. Eventually the will buy the Coho pipeline and they will construct (likely sub-contract) the cascadura pipeline themselves. I still wonder about the Coho development well. If it is scheduled it has to have a start date. That is what scheduled means. They could double Coho production with the second half taking 1/10 the time as the first half.

Wouldn't be a nice surprise if they were drilling the planned Coho development well so they could bring that on-line at the same time. They said a month or two ago that it was "scheduled". Would like to know when it was scheduled. In most places with infrastructure that would be a 7-10 day process.

PB and XM are the only ones with conviction that Royston will be a prolific field. Shipka is in wait and see mode. Investors are skeptical because of experience with Chinook, a disappointing let down after promising announcement of huge natural gas discovery. (but even that story may have another chapter).

Royston is a truly massive structure 0 1.8 by 7.2 km. They have 400 feet of pay. I am confused that they announced "twice what we expected" when all the slides for years talked about 700 feet of pay on the old Shell well they twinned, but still there is a HUGE amount of pay. And there were still in hydrocarbon pay when they stopped at TD 10,700 (still not totally clear why).

However current share price is a discount to the value of Cascadura field. I am happy to buy to US $ 2.00 and anything below US $1.50 is a real bargain. Nevertheless share price will drop if Royston disappoints, that is the way it works.

The next two months should have t least a few solid developments, after months of sitting in the doldrums (except for fantastic Royston discovery news which has not gotten proper attention in my opinion. Coho will come on line. Details of Royston testing will start to come out, with proof of commercial discovery that can be produced with good flow rates as most important. Some thing will be released from the legacy drilling. The Cascadura development plan should be out by end of the year. At this moment some clarification of the status of the Royston discovery is by far the most important. What is strange is that it is not really reflected in share price and hadn't added much to sentiment, though it is sitting right there with a short timeline to some answers.

If the Royston well is not commercial, I will sit back, repeat my due diligence, and see how the share price shakes out. I would not sell into a big drop. My current thinking is that I would try to add more add the right time. I hate to even state that because I am in the camp of PB and XM and I think it is going to be a highly prolific field when all is said and done. Size of Cascadura up to several times bigger.

Buffet only reads annual reports. Yeah, to get enough background to have more intelligent in-depth conversations with CEO and CFO and maybe some board members.

Depends partly on timing of Cascadura production. Once that cash flow is coming in they will likely have continuous two rig drilling program. One will drill the three second phase exploration wells. The other will drill development wells at cascadura and some other stuff (development wells on legacy lands, deep test coora, up dip well chinook, etc). If that starts by May, they could get to a kraken drill late 2022. If cascadura is delayed to mid summer or early fall, Kraken could be pushed back to early 2023. We will know soon (in a month or two) whether Royston development wells will be added to 2023 schedule. We are early in the Touchstone story. Discoveries so far are exciting but most of the story is ahead of us.

Of course the minister is talking about Coho and especially cascadura.
Bizarre to think otherwise.

Lots of interesting detail. I think it is only missing one part, how they will finance the outlined plan, which otherwise seems pretty promising to me. It is worth a little time studying the presentation slides and not just reading the RNS.

I have a buy in at 9 cents in US market. If it fills I will add another and follow it down to 8 cents. (6.5 and 5.8 pence). Hoping someone gets freaked out by the London 10% drop and bails in panic mode.

I am not freaked out by the presentation. I am hoping David fills in a little about plans for paying for the next steps, maybe in response to very focused questions.

“not a lot of sulphur in it”, not “sulphuric”. Hate text editor.

API generally about 25 (22-27) which place it in medium category. I do not think there is a lot of sulphuric so I would say sweet

My take - medium sweet. Others probably know more.

obviously if the are going to have flow rates to report first week of November, the completion rig and testing crew have to be at Royston site pretty soon. I hope the announce that.

They will only have some results the first week of November if the testing rig and the testing crew are on Royston site pretty soon. I suppose they will announce that in some way, probably a tweet with a photo.

Meanwhile nothing from Coho yet about status of pipeline construction which is necessary for first gas from Ortoire block.

They have to keep pedaling, but also would be nice to see that they are covering some ground.

Obviously final results will be a couple of months. But Paul stated very clearly that they will have some results the first week of November. At the least there will be some preliminary flow rates and a declaration that the well will flow and is commercial.
That would be enough to move shares.

Not much else to say. News flow will increase soon.