Member Info for Scott22

Totally agree that we are oh happy passengers at this point. Maybe shared more than anyone wanted to know but that is how I got here and why my conviction is strong, no matter what happens, because it is a good story and it is totally reasonable to continue to buy the story here, versus many other opportunities.

I could share more painful parts of the initial steps related to PBG , but I would n’t.

Then what happened was Cascadura 1ST. On March 11, 2020 they announced 5,000 boed tests from two different zones. I said (translated to new metric), wow that is 3 Cohos. And they had only drilled 2/5 wells of the first exploration program.

At that point I became committed to the story. Aftwer 6 years of no purchases or sales I started buying again (not at the bottom, but around $1. I continued to buy all the way over $2, I have added a lot more all the way back to $1.05. I am in the blackand I have very high conviction that the value is worth more than the current share price/ market cap - by quite a bit.

I was not overly disturbed by the Chinook findings or by the delays in getting gas to pipe. I keep thinking it takes longer and is very expensive to get a new offshore field on line. I don't think TXP could have done that with their level of resources. Here the big pipelines are a few km away and the NGC is building connecting pipe to the wellheads.

And now Royston. I am going to convert that to Cohos after the testing is done. There is a lot more to come in development wells and future explorations. When I bought TXP the goal was 1 Coho on the legacy blocks. And the price was $2.06 a share. Jope my little story was not too boring. I follow every piece of this and the story is very intact and early at this point. In my opinion. They target share price I had when I resumed buying was US $3-5 by end of 2021 and $5-10 by end of 2022.

Those targets I have moved back 6 months but have not otherwise changed. I am going to try to figure out a target price per Coho so I can adjust target as they add more reserves with discoveries and development wells and as they begin to ramp production.

I kind of like it. A Coho is 3000 boed ( production after the second well comes on line) or about 18 mmcf gas per day which is conservative).

Legacy shallow oil production is about 1/2 Coho with long term goal of steady production near 1 Coho tops. (3000 bopd would be super).

Cacadura may come in at 2.5 Coho and ramp over to years to 10 Cohos.

Royston who knows but 10-20 Cohos certainly possible.

The reason that this is important is that it gives context to history of TXP and relative valuation of entire company.

My first shares converted from Petrobank on 1/11/2013 at $2.06 (all number $US for this exercise). I only got 500 shares with the conversion. They only had the legacy blocks - the goal was to drill infill wells and work overs and get production over time up to 1 Coho. That was the whole deal. They wanted other avenues for growth but were looking for a plan. The share price naturally dropped because growth prospects were less than awesome. On 1/16/2013 I 500 more at $1.92. On 11/11/2013 I added 500 more at $.65. AS;; that was based on a plan to eventually get to a 1 Coho company. Then in 2014 they bid on Ortoire block and actually a few off shore ideas too - I bought bought 1500 more on 4/09/2014 at $.72 based on the idea they were looking at other avenues to become a bigger company.

But acutally they studied and studied (old seismic and every old Ortoire well bore after getting data from Shell mainly but from other sources. XM was a consultant (he was working for Petrotrin, precursor of Heritage). He was presenting at scientific conferences his ideas about turbidite sands. He always started those international talks with a joke about Trinidad being the place where geologists go to die, presumably from not finding anything commercial. Then he laid beautiful story about importance of turbidite sands on shore Trinidad. He pointed out that turbidites were not well appreciated in 1950'sand 1960's when exploratory wells were being drilled on Trinidad, but had since become well known as the geology underlying all the off shore conventional gas pools. Why couldn't the sands that flowed off the same continental blocks but were laying under Trinidad have the same hydrocarbons as those sands that flowed a little further and ended up offshore to east of the island (and elsewhere in many different locations). I did not buy or sell a single share during that whole time but being a small owner and a XM fan kept me following the story with high interest. I also became a Paul Baay fan listening to his presentations. I was excited about the 5 well exploration program, even though the legacy blocks had become boring, had gone through a low oil price interval (or two) , did not provide a credible investment thesis based on growth.

So what happened is Coho. November 18, 2019 it flowed at 17.5 mmcf/day. I said wow that is 1 Coho and that was target for the entire legacy operation which is at half that now. (usin

They said that a second Coho well "was scheduled". If it is scheduled they must also have a schedule to get a drill pad ready. I wonder if that is what you are looking at (the clearance work close to the Coho site). Maybe we will get a tweet about that.

Amazing technology. When the the testing crew does the flow tests they will have to flare the gas. Keep those satellite coordinates handy.

XM probably understands this. The government does have a data base but it is not totally public. The renewal of the current legacy blocks included some negotiations to get more data, even though TXP has already been producing on those blocks for 7 years. There are current proposals to make all data owned by NGC public and that was discussed in one of the talks at the recent AAPG conference. On the other hand individual companies likely own a lot of old well data and Shell voluntarily shared a lot of that with TXP after they won the bid round for Ortoire block in 2024.TXP studied that data for several years before embarking on first phase of exploration beginning with Coho in 2019. I do not know if the companies like Shell have to turn over all the data to NGC or if there is a timeline that specifies when this has to occur. A lot of companies that frilled wells in past are no longer operating so I hope that NGC has archived their data - and that they make strides toward totally public database that can be used by everyone. That would let companies make better decisions about what blocks they want to acquire in bid rounds and also could help in focusing search for new prospects. In case of TXP the first phase of exploration was mostly twinned wells of old wells (more than 50 years old) where they had good data on the original wells.

Based on the last discussion in my last post I have made the decision to keep buying to $2.00 US and then reassess there. Am I wrong?

One Coho development well is scheduled. That is the plan - two producing wells from a small field. But think about Coho, a small field that is almost left out of the discussion (and future revenue projections) because it is so tiny next to Cascadura (and also next to Royston though that not fully tested).

Coho with two wells will be producing DOUBLE the current production of the entire company. And it is a blip. I have never been in a situation where discovery of new field that will immediately triple overall production of the company is hardly even noteworthy, given the enormity of newer much larger discoveries, one of which (cascadura) will begin production only a few months later at a scale of 5 Cohos and will add 2-3 Cohos with each of the planned 6 development wells. With Royston we cannot even begin to think of the possible scale. If it is really twice the size of Cascadura then it is possibly 40 Cohos.

It is all a little unbelievable. Coho triples size of company from 1400 boed. And the next two discoveries are 20 and then 40 times bigger. And we are very early in the whole process and exploring the Ortoire block and developing current and future discoveries. At US $1.40 TXP is still insanely cheap. I think it is still by far the most undervalued issue that I own.

Thanks so much Druid. I have listened to a lot of lectures about turbidite sands as possible oil and gas reservoirs on-shore Trinidad.
Including a super presentation by XM in Houston years ago. I have thought that many of these charged turbidite sands are off-shore which is in this case further from the source than the sands on shore in Trinidad. Reading your piece is seems that people should have been clued into these sands long ago, since they are closer to hydrocarbon source, and especially after central block came on line in 2001. But it really took Xavier and team and years of study of old wells and old seismic to advance this concept. The columbus offshore basin to east of Trinidad has produced 15 TCF of natural gas since 1968. So if those sands are charged, doesn’t that mean that these onshore turbidite sands (really flowing off the same continental block) are closer to the source rock. Anyway it is exciting that these onshore sands seem to be similar to the conventional off shore reservoirs because they are cheaper to drill and produce - the delays getting these first discovery fields on line is nothing in comparison to what it takes to put infrastructure together for a new offshore field. Here we have huge main pipelines a few kilometers away. Anyway thanks again. I do not understand everything but I am so curious about it his geology. XM is a great and inspirational teacher - I listen to everything he says - actually wish I could take a class from him. From you too. All my best.

London traded 5 million today despite some pauses.

Wonder how many shorts got out?

I was referring to how TXP used the term in the press release.

"similar to data seen at other offsetting producing wells"

Do you see anything about geological twins on other continents? Do you think that is what they meant? This was not a discussion about how you personally use the term offset well. You just have to let this go. Doesn't matter.

I like mbarnholdt's term "analagous well/reservoir" which makes total sense to me, but they also did not use that term.

I think they were just talking about the central block wells, which would be exciting for two reasons: 1. Those wells are prolific, and 2. Cascadura field is even better than that. At first I thought they meant Coho but that is not a producing well - although it will be soon. I do wonder how the porosity at Royston compares to Coho.

I asked you for names of "other offsetting producing wells" other than central block wells. Carapal Ridge is one of the central block components (carapal ridge 2 wells, baraka 1 well, and baraka east 1 well).

Hey MJ, I am just kidding. I was just imagining what you would say to me if I started spouting nonsense about “off set wells on different continents”. You have said that you work with lots of people who are smarter than you are. Try a survey monkey question - “Can you have an offset well on another continent?”. Then send anyone who answers no a google search to increase their knowledge base.

Great day for TXP. Some of the most important test results will be here by end of October or early November. If Royston well tests well (anything over 25 mmcf/day plus good pressure tests especially pressure build up after flow test) then the upward move after that could likely be even better than this one. Again congrats to Paul and XM and everyone at TXP and all the members of this board who have been and are following the story closely. I have owned shares since day 1 of the company and this is the most optimistic moment. And we are very very early in the story. It will also unfold for years with many possible positive events but all with less risk after Cascadura is on line and cash flow is fully supporting all the development and future exploration too.
That is a totally different situation than worrying about capital raises and bank loans. Once Cascadura and Royston (hopefully) are both hooked up to sales (maybe mid 2023) then they have no reason not to start paying a dividend. Two rigs is enough and at that point will take only a smallish part of the cash flow.

That is a GOOD ONE MJ. Offset wells on different continents? An entirely new concept. Ha ha ha.

Even Google dose not know that one. The legal description of offset well (not to say exclusive use of the term) is "an oil well drilled opposite another well on an adjoining property". Certainly in common use it refers to wells in a slightly broader area. But on another continent? Come on. Or are you just kidding? You could talk about a well on another continent in a somewhat comparable geology. But that would not be an offset well. And the amazing fact is that TXP (with Xavier at the head of exploration) is really pioneering the concept of gas charged turbitite sands on-shore. So you would have to go off shore to even really find a comparable geology. So the other continent thing would not work for that either.

as of 11:30 NYSE time

Toronto - 819K versus recent average 125k
US OTC 186K versus recent average 18k
London - 4.8 Million versus recent average 237 K.

I am afraid London market is letting soem of thoses shorts escape with relatively minor woulnds. Wish they would dig in until the Royston test results in late October.

MJ <>

Again list the producing wells you are talking about in the area/formation/producing depth. In addition the the four central block wells that came on in 2001.

What I am saying is that there are lots of shallow Forest oil wells over to west side but there are no other Hererra tests and certainly except central block (4 wells, two of them exceptional wells) no other Hererra producing gas wells since 2001. You would have to extend the "offset" to off shore or to other islands. I know that you are very experienced in drilling, but where are the producing offset wells in Trinidad they could be referring to in the presser, if not the central block. Just list the other producing Hererra gas wells. Comparisons of porosity with Coho would be very interesting but Coho is not producing

Not worried. But a question and a clarification would be okay. They did not have to put that comment in the RNS but it does highlight what an amazing field they have at Cascadura. When they say “similar to other offsetting producing wells” that can only mean central block since there are no other offsetting producing wells and those were drilled in 2001. Or can you think of other producing offset wells they could be referring to?

More to come on October as testing results are anticipated and released. Would also get an even quicker extra bump when Paul does presentation and clarifies a few items. Paul’s father Royston was an R
E and P guy. He was a huge influence and I think he died in 2013. Paul named this prospect as a tribute to him. As you know we are fishing for prospects but this one is more than fishing to Paul. Congrats to him.

We should line up our questions for him. In past he has sometimes done a 3 minute add on answering questions he has not gotten to.

1. Porosity is less than Cascadura but similar to some other producing wells. How does it compare to Coho and central block wells? What other wells are like this?

2. Why did they stop early? Especially since pay zone was open to deeper levels when they stopped. Were high pressures encountered? Any kicks of gas to surface? How much mud weight was necessary?

3. Wire logs showed pay. Since only thing that can be confused on resistivity is water, and especially with prior interpretation trouble at Chinook, did they encounter water? Do they think these sands are dry?

4. Do they have plans to go deeper with a Royston development well if there are deeper sands not yet tested by this well?

There are probably more. Congratulations to Paul especially but also to Xavier Moonan and the whole team!!!!

Board is turning to mush - it is a long difficult path from cave bats and Wuhan to helium. I could perhaps find some connection because sick persons need MRI scanners and China is a little short on MRI scanners per capita; therefore if infectious bats are leaving the caves and heading to Wuhan and are causing diseases - then we need more helium....

but maybe not all that helpful

I saw that report about Shell leaving the Permian. I own CEQP a great company. They own midstream assets there including a JV with Shell midstream that collects gas from an area that Shell just sold to COP.
There may be a little opportunity for them, although CEQP Bakken assets are 10 times more important to them. If you are looking for undervalued income issue that also has capital gain potential you could look at this one. Dividend is very safe, management is very good.