Member Info for Scott22

I am happy to get a bump from anything, but I don’t think starting to build Coho pipeline spur will do anything. It is a year and a half kate. Maybe first gas at Coho will give us a bounce (if only because it reminds people that Cascadura hook—up is next). But we might have some preliminary Royston results before Coho first gas, and that will be a lot bigger , if Royston is a discovery.

smasher - good points to consider and valid. But I still think that right now they should be laser focused on getting production on line because they need the cash flow to fund what is ahead. And in reaching and reporting the right milestones, the shares will be fine. If they just keep saying "Casca is huge" again and again but EIA is delayed, production is delayed, development wells are delayed, revenues are delayed - no amount of table pounding will be helpful or frankly even noticed. Time for that is past. They have found more than what they hoped to find. They have to exploit it .

And reserves are best updated yearly at the exact same time of year, year after year after year, as they have done.
The best companies have reporting that is timely, predictable, transparent. I like a quarter report in exact same format, with conference call, at the same time every quarter of the year (example 4th Tuesday of following quarter). Plus RNS in same general format for material events. Plus updating corporate presentation every month and using that for framework for all presentations. Plus keeping the web site current.

On TXP website front page the link to corporate presentation has an image of first page of presentation dated Oct 2020 but the presentation when you open it is May 2021.

On the website under operations they talk about bringing Coho on line in 2020, bringing casca1 on line in 2021, looking forward to Chinook test results . Those outdated statements should be updated; it is not necessary to be sloppy. It is a little thing but important. Right now details and operational excellence and a sense of urgency about the timelines are critical.
Promotion not so much - I have no objection to promotion but I promise you that at this point it will almost take care of itself. It is a great story, just slow to unfold, and that not not all the fault of the company. One good example is the new Canadian rig - that took a lot of relatively long term planning and also good execution to get it on the ground and operating. It is potentially a real difference maker. Now they just have to keep focused and put it to exceptionally good use.

Lexion - Love the enthusiasm but maybe a little too aggressive, not in ultimate price but in time to get there. I am maintaining my one year US $3-5 US target and my two year US $5-10 target but I have let them slide out by 6 months from original timeline of end of 2021 and end of 2022. I will enjoy following the company as the story unfolds. I don't agree with M-J that the company should keep explaining how big Cascadura is or accelerating reserve update schedule. They need to get production and revenues and earnings all ramping. The revenues will fund the aggressive two rig drilling - both development and the second phase of exploration (of which I consider the Coora deep test a little first course). Production and revenue growth will highlight the size of Cascadura and other pools and the reserves are going to grow steadily as the development and exploration programs continue in parallel. Really Paul is right that we are early in a 10 year program. Coho and Cascadura are solid and not only have derisked the future drilling program but will also fund it. The existence of productive turbidite sands on-shore in Trinidad is not a speculation, it is a fact. Proven by TXP. I am enjoying that even as share price has struggled to regain momentum.

no clue but probably not. the deep test (of Herrera sands at Coora block will be highly important. I don’t exactly how that works. Maybe the complete the shallow well,hook it up, and then drill the deep well from the same pad right afterwards. Or maybe they just continue the same well bore to depth with plan of testing the Herrera if positive but plugging the distal part of well bore if Hererra not a discovery. It would be very ironic if they have been producing 1-100 bopd from all these shallow wells for years and then it turns out that some of the wells might yield 5,000 boed if drilled into a little deeper target off the same well pad.

Just think of all the excitement ahead - Royston, Coora Herra test, Cascadura development wells, Chinook up dip wells, a lateral test of the Cruse, Royston development wells, Steelhead, Guabine …. AND (drum roll please)….the MIGHTY KRAKEN!
With more to come.

Good news - set up time for that jackknife rig is supposed to be 6 hours - I have even seen a time lapse video of that process -spud time of two weeks should be highly doable! It will be fun to follow their progress. Paul said they are preparing all four pads.

I wonder how the crew is structured. Is the company supplying a canadian crew. Have they added skilled crew members from Trinidad?

Trek and SGF - I added more last week too and plan to continue to add.

Scale of Cascadura is not being fully appreciated. 3 development wells and it will be .5-1.0 TCF of proven reserves producing well over 100 mmcf for years with no ongoing capital needs.

Meanwhile Royston drilling. It is exploration and nothing proven until drilled and tested. But certainly Royston is derisked after Coho and Cascadura discoveries. The idea of turbidite sands on shore Trinidad charged with gas is no longer speculation.
Beauty is that Royston is double size of Cascadura. Of positive there is huge upside (and there are other things coming too). But if negative, the current valuation (and more) is totally supported by Cascadura and there is no risk to that.

TSE and to a lesser degree US OTC) have to carry the load today. Hoping we move up a little and set stage for next LSE session. But day to day not that important. I do not mind adding more shares here.

How big are these targets? how long do they produce, at what rate? how far apart are they?

There seem to be some real logistical problems in selling any helium. A modular plant to separate the helium and prepare it for trucking to Dar are Saalam costs 50 million. Short of that what do they do with any gas that comes out of a water pipe out in the rural area. The modular plant also cannot be jumped from one pocket to the next. Will they need a gas collecting system. Certainly there are major advantages finding a big deep pool and parking a modular plant next to it. One of the wells at Pinto Dome in Holbrook Basin AZ produced 5 BCF over 15 years. We need something like that to get cash flowing to move ahead with module 2 and then 3 and then 4 - all situated at big discovery pools that will produce for a long time.

We got most of the Cruse results in the operational update August 13. I was a little disappointed with the flow rates. Only thing left is 30 day pressure build up test.,

I had the wild idea that the might send the canadian rig over to the Chinook pad after it finishes the 4 commitment wells on the legacy blocks. They could drill two long Cruse horizontals in opposite directions. The canadian crews are very experienced drilling horizontal and that new rig is all set up to do that.

A fourth zone was completed over a 25-foot interval in the Cruse Formation between 3,004 feet to 3,029 feet on July 3, 2021. The well was initially opened to flow and recovered load fluid and dry natural gas. Downhole pressure recorders and well testing equipment were installed to perform a deliverability flow test on July 13, 2021. The flow test spanned a total of 45 hours, comprised of an initial clean-up flow period, followed by an initial shut-in period and a five-step rate test, including a 24-hour extended flow test. During the extended flow test period, the well achieved a peak production rate of approximately 0.7 million cubic feet per day ("MMcf/d") of dry natural gas and flowed at an average natural gas rate of approximately 0.35 MMcf/d with an average flowing pressure of approximately 200 pounds per square inch. No liquids or water was encountered during testing. The well was shut in on July 15, 2021 for a 30-day pressure buildup, after which the downhole pressure recorders are expected to be recovered in mid-August 2021 for further analysis.

Thanks, I am going to listen to that. I have become quite interested in the Geology since I have been following this story and the posts/tweets of Xavier Moonan.

Hopefully they have a discovery and get the well fully tested (including flow tests and pressure tests) so he can get Royston numbers into next reserve update in March.

Construction starts about September 1st. First gas about December 1. Though as you imply - “about” is a bit of a dicey word in TXP land.

Construction arm of TXP is building the pipeline. I am sure NGC will buy it eventually at fair price. Depending on other details of the three way agreement with TXP/Shell/NGC. I am assuming that NGC is buying the gas at fixed price at the wellhead as per the agreement for whole Ortoire block. They will not want to pay for transmission of the gas on this collecting pipeline.

davidblack - I said “hopefully” to your comment “it is called recruitment”. That is true, I hope they recruit great employees from the strong programs at their universities.

But if you follow Xavier Moonan carefully over the years you will see that his passion and involvement in education is much more than that. He is involved with the university and also professional groups working with young people interested in geology. He has done field trips with student groups for years. This predated his work with TXP but he has carried it with him into this work. He has won a major teaching award unusual for his age. As I said there is a lot to like about the company. And a lot to like about XM who is a major contributor to the company, to his profession, to the university, to his country. Glad we have him in important leadership position at TXP.

Sad outcome for 2021 campaign but not total but. Unfortunately 10 million pounds is not a lot. Wonder if Mitchell will carry their deal forward, especially as bigger rig will be used in 2022 deep campaign.

I am good with more data, some shallow water well type tests of the shallow well concept, then enough targeted new 2D to seismic to pick best target for 2022 phase 2 exploration. First 2022 well will be critical. They may be able to drill a couple, but not more than that with current capital. The first one won’t be a hail mary, but it will be theirs and long. A second 2022 well might be a hail mary (if first one is not a discovery). Sorry for the american football references on a london board.

I am holding He1,to let 2022 play out. My other helium picks are at crucial points as well. DME had weird incomplete news release after testing of well4. RHC hoping to produce from Climax4 well into rigolith formation the have identified. Will take a hit if that is non-commercial. But RHC is better capitalized at this point than He1 and had better infrastructure. Panther will punch out six new wells on other targets in next few months.

hopefully

Maybe the can spend some of that cash to fast track Cascadura development.

Plus they can easily buy the Coho pipeline and infrastructure so TXP can get that cash back. That is NGC policy anyway and only reason the did not build that hook up is that the contract with TXP was not signed until long after TXP had initiated that work.

https://newsday.co.tt/2021/08/19/ngc-rebounds-with-437m-after-tax-profit/

Xavier Moonan has a nice FB post about Geology sub-surface interns from University of West Indies who are visiting Royston site and also studying the new Royston seismic data with advanced software program. Nice to have real time involvement by students who will contribute to the energy sector and the economic development of Trinidad. I held TXP from 2014 -start of 2019 while almost nothing was happening. It is incredible how much has happened since. Glad it is an important holding and happy to be able to steadily add more st this price. I will enjoy watching this story unfold. Turbidite sand onshore Trinidad? Check! Coho and massive Cascadura discoveries? Check! Royston an even bigger discovery? To be determined. OMG is there a cretaceous oil pool like offshore Guyana/Surinam lurking deep to the Herrera? Can’t wait to find out. Why would anyone leave? Too interesting!

??Touchstone's Subsurface Interns visited the Royston-1 exploration wellsite!

They were introduced to Operations and Wellsite Geology, Directional Drilling, Mud Engineering and Mudlogging by various onsite personnel

The understanding of the Royston-1 well ties very well into their final year projects which focusses on their own attempt to process and interpret the recently acquired Ortoire Block 2D Seismic Lines using Schlumberger Vista software at the University of the West Indies Petroleum Geoscience Unit

Touchstone Exploration Inc.
UWI St. Augustine

Here is comment there today

<<@Dreadnought I was hoping we would have the Big Rig on the Island so we could drill right through Royston and test Kraken at the same time. They would probably never do that with one hole, too much dam fun, but it was a nice dream. >>

Well we do have the Big Rig on the island. We are testing the 709 feet that Shell saw but also hoping to test another Herrera sand package right below. This drill is the 5th and final well of the first set of exploratory wells.

Kraken is a deeper Cretaceous structure. It is a long shot but has massive potential if it really is analogous to a guyana/surinam offshore oil prospect. It is part of the announced 3 well second exploratory project, likely for 2023. It will be drilled differently with casing set right through the herrera. It will take a lot of planning, may need different rig than is available right now. Anyway they did get the part about Kraken is deep below Royston right. But the reason they won’t run right down to Kraken is not because it would be too damn fun.

Anyway I will keep reading the ceo board for a while but there is a $15 fee to register and post. That post wasn’t bad but they don’t seem to have deep understanding of the company.

xviolet - best to you and all on this journey. It is an adventure . It is also as of today less than 3/4 percent of my total portfolio - or slightly less than a Cowie portion. So it is fun and even exciting because the story is so interesting - but not that stressful. Still I have enough that a 10 bagger from here would be extremely significant.

Thanks for reposting that earlier (July 12) RNS about the first show.

Notice that it took 7 days to get to that first show at 70 meters. And that was in unstable shallow area, likely low pressure at that depth as well. The helium was only 4-6 meters in depth. It measured at 2.2% but that was not calibrated. Somehow I don't think that is where their collective energy is focused. (DM, the gas experts, Mitchell personnel)

The next show they reported in the August 11 RNS was at the base of the lake bed in the red sandstone group at 552 meters. The amount of helium (never stated) continued to increase for 9 meters up to 561. At that point DM went to bed with visions of sugar plums dancing in his head. However as soon as he fell asleep the drill string snapped proximal to the formation and that was that in terms of learning more.

So if I was drilling Tai 2 I would want the biggest and most stable well bore possible hitting 552 meters and continuing right through the entire helium zone and then I would do all kinds of testing including wireline and DST testing and would attempt to flow gas to surface or at the least capture a little dollop of it from down hole samples.

That is why I think 3-6 weeks is more reasonable timeframe. But of course I would welcome anything sooner of major substance,.