Member Info for Scott22

mbarnholdt

Well you are not too late with TXP. This is a very good price right here.

SeagullsFan: I actually looked at ADV earlier this year. I decided not to buy but I kind of wish wish I had, at a lower price than it is now. I only allow myself five of these special situation or turn-around high risk/high reward stocks (otherwise I would have a whole collection since I am looking for ideas all the time) - and never more that 5% of portfolio. So to buy a new one I have to sell one that I own. Or I can add another one if a current pick "graduates" to small cap growth bucket, but to be there they need things like growing revenues and increasing earnings and be able to be valued in more traditional way. And I just didn't like ADV better than the five I have now. TXP is my favorite and I personally have high conviction. (some future time it will graduate to small cap growth and it will be in my portfolio for a long time, and even become an income source paying a dividend.) Helium1 I love and it is at a particularly high intensity point right now. I also drifted into DME and RHC in the helium space for very different reasons. Final one is JLP which is sort of a unique idea. They process the tailings of old mines and and don't do any mining themselves. Much less lead time for one thing, easier to test the resource, and a nice green angle in that they extract toxic stuff from the waste and remediate the tailings dumps to leave everything less harmful than before. Plus they reduce the environmental cost of new mines by extracting minerals from old mine waste. Anyway I would not trade TXP, He1, or JPL for ADV. I thought about selling one of my other helium tag alongs but I couldn't decide which to sell (probably would have sold the one about to go up) and my positions arn't that big anyway. I am glad I held DME since that has made a nice move since I bought it, and I have learned a lot following that story in parallel with He1. RHC I just hold for a new reservoir they seem to have found (rigolith formation) and a good leadership group, plus they are another primary helium driller in Saskatchewan that has a little different geology, and Canada is a little more friendly to mining and drilling and they are another primary helium driller. Less likely to have to fight through a lot of lawsuits to get it done. Anyway this is off topic. But TXP and Helium1 are my #1 and #2 - so we are in the same boat. Or boats.

JS490 - the exact date they spud Royston is not material. It is worth a sigh of relief and a muttered "finally". We have been waiting for months while they rebuilt the road and the bridge, built the drill pad, assembled and tested the components of the rebuilt rig at an alternate site, trucked the pieces of the drilling rig to the drill pad (with video of it going over the aforementioned re-built bridge), set up the rig on site with nice photos. Not to mention we got good documentation of the parallel process as they shot new 2D seismic of the area.

I think they only need an RNS if they do NOT spud it soon. When they get going a tweet with a date stamp will be just fine.

I am not minimizing it of course. It is a massively important exploration well that is aiming at a discovery bigger than whole company so far including the legacy oil fields AND the fantastic results of the first four exploratory wells. The preliminary results (Royston discovery confirmed by wireline and documentation of gas in reservoir) may be the biggest RNS in history of the company with the next RNS with results of flow tests and pressure build up tests and reserve estimates just as important. It is totally exciting to be on the cusp of starting to drill this hole.

my targets were $US 3-5 end of 2021 and US $5-10 U end of 2022. I really have not updated them. They may have moved back a bit because of the delays. But personally I think the delays are not that important.

Cascadura1-ST and Cascadura Deep are complete, tested, ready to flow by opening a valve, each one at a rate several times greater than current company total production. What would have been material is if these wells had been dusters. The fact that they are proven and ready to go, with all gas sold at guaranteed $2.50 price at wellhead, with the buyer (NGC) paying for the pipeline to the drill pad means that when exactly when they get it into sales is a little important (they will need the cash to keep things humming) but not material to the big picture.

@SeagullsFan

I am glad that you are joining this board as a TXP investor. I would recommend that you follow Xavier Moonan on twitter and on FaceBook. I am a big fan of his for years. I certainly have no problem if shares bounce around near here for a few weeks or months. I have been an investor in TXP since 2014 but was at a minimal low level until the development plan for the Ortoire block started to unfold, (and until Xavier explained the rationale for it) and I have been building my position since then. The idea of gas charged turbidite sands (usually an off shore thing) on shore in Trinidad was a sort of wild idea, but made sense, and now is proven. The path to a 30,000 boed and then a 50,000 boed company has gone from wildly speculative to pretty straightforward. And they have a contract with the NGC (National Gas Company of Trinidad) who will build the pipelines to the drill pads to pick up the gas and will pay a set good price for all the gas that guarantees high profits to TXP. The contract with NGC is for 25 years but the price can be adjusted in 3 years depending on market conditions. So basically it cannot really go down, but can be adjusted upwards. Current price ($2.50) is a win/win for both sides - the company and the country.

....agree that weight management during covid time has been a bear! (and it wasn't that easy before covid) . I always try to remember that "keep pedaling" was Einstein's best advice. And he was smart, by all accounts.

There is no hard news coming for a little while except maybe comerciality and a production number for Chinook Cruse (like 5 mmcf/day or something like that).

All the rest is soft news and can be transmitted on social media. These are early days for TXP, much is ahead, but nothing immediate qualifies as hard news.

Potential soft news upcoming.

1. a target destination selected for Coho gas and starting the 6 week process to build pipeline spur
2. Royston spud and will have some preliminary results in 2 months
3. Canadian rig at dock, unloaded, transported to drilling site, set up. Then first legacy well spud with results in 4-6 weeks.
4. Development plan for cascadura accepted. Engineering beginning. NGC will start pipeline extension to Cascadura site in a few weeks and it will be completed 1-2 months later.

Hard news of importance:

1. First gas at Coho
2. (more importantly) first gas at cascadura
3. (most importantly) preliminary positive results at Royston
4. (less important) results of 4 well legacy shallow oil comittment drills.

Then a whole lot more over next 1-2 years

1. Positive results from deep well on legacy side (could be very important)
2. Successful Cascadura development wells
3. Results of up dip Chinook well.
4. Successful Royston development wells, if it is a discovery
5. Results of next phase of exploration drilling with KRAKEN the big time lottery ticket but steelhead and guabine having potential to be discoveries of new pools.

I am continuing to buy. It is still high risk and high reward - but the risk is getting lower and the reward is getting higher. It is my highest conviction stock in this space.

hope so, shares seem to be trying to move a little upward

for sure do not go there ... do you know that in some circles "chest feeding" has become the accepted term

He1 will not have any He3 to sell. They may have helium with a low but slightly higher concentration of He3 that could be sold to someone who wants to work on extracting the helium3 in a near zero temp environment. What they would pay for that is uncertain, though DME seems to have such a buyer in the US Energy Department that has a lab only 175 miles away. If DME has a same day payee, they must have a price for the raw gas, likely including some specs as to the ppm of He3.

However primordial He (with 200 ppm of He3) in Tanzania would be HUGE and open up all kinds of possibilities. It seems more plausible than in Arizona because there used to be a lot of uranium mining in arizona and the Helium cooked in the kitchen of radioactive decay of uranium/thorium is the low He3 variety. Like in Saskatchewan too where there are primary helium wells but also lots of uranium mining. Tanzania seems to be a whole different geology where the helium source may be older and deeper. Anyway He3 is an interesting side story. Not the main attraction (which is plain old helium, rare enough) but something of interest.

....who said that the drill time would be "circa one month".

I don't care so much that it is late, as DM said (and I paraphrase) better a slow well that is historic than a fast one that is a duster.

But they not only set out to drill three wells in three months but they put their money where their mouth was, granting share incentives for meeting that timeline.

The board of Helium One recognises the exceptional performance of members of the management and executive team in delivering the drilling programme on schedule. To additionally incentivise management towards ensuring financial discipline in successful exploration, the board has resolved to issue 15,500,000 options to acquire ordinary shares at a strike price of 22p to management and board members.

Options for management and executive directors, are subject to performance related vesting conditions being; completion of the 3 well drilling programme within budget, and on time, and a successful flow of helium bearing gas to surface from any of the 3 wells.

There is a fascinating piece over on Seeking Alpha about DME. In it the author details the words of Robert Rohlfing in the interview that got me (and others) trying to understand He3 a little better. Now mind you it is currently produced by decay of tritium as nuclear warheads age and no one has ever concentrated it from helium from a natural gas or other natural source. But since supplies are dwindling and demand is increasing there is intense interest in doing that, especially if helium source with higher (nearer primordial) concentrations of He3 can be identified. Those are still low but are maybe 200 ppm versus 5-20 ppm. This extraction is not simple and has to be done at near absolute zero temps. Stuff for a government research lab. Still not as hard as mining it on the moon I would think. Anyway here is a discussion of Rohlfing interview that
got this topic a little more attention. For context DME had just included this somewhat random announcement in a July 9 RNS announcing a Helium Discovery (without wireline or DST testing). "The company is also pleased to announce that it has been assigned a direct payee number by the US government, to enable immediate same day payment for gases shipped."

Around the 9:00 mark, Rohlfing discusses the results of the well as "The vast majority of what was coming out of the ground was nitrogen with helium. So looking at those results, we won't know until we actually complete the well and do the testing that you can see for sure if it was helium 3 or helium 4, and I'll just have to let it go at that. I think the indicators are something really significant on that and again I'm happy to, if that's it, it's not a problem to deal with it. It gives us an additional specific customer to sell to, if it is the helium 3. Obviously I'm limited to what I can say about this, but it should be not overly cryptic, but it should be pretty obvious that if you get a payee, now a direct payee number from United State government that, that is probably for direct payment of same day of deliveries, I think that should be obvious where that is going."

Hope so, it is not an easy issue, decades in the making and many years of discussions about a solution. Now major criticism of JBL for possibly aggravating the issue (and the government for allowing that to happen) and then a June deadline to respond to the concerns. I really thought that Leon would refer to that issue when giving a forward look about copper plans and I was surprised that he did not. Which is the only reason I am mentioning it. I was wondering if that omission was muting share price response. I am not interested in muting the share price response, my comment was long after the lukewarm reaction to the RNS was clear.

It is the elephant in the room so to speak, and affects the entire Zambia operational plan. They did not cause the problem and I think they are part of the solution. But there are a lot of people who fear that the operation could cause more problems than the current situation of lead dust blowing off the tailing piles. National and International agencies have asked them to provide specific written information by last month. Did they do that? What did they say? I am a JBL long but I think they should get ahead of this in their communication. It is a big deal. You don't have to look very far to read about it. It has been discussed on this board.

....how does he know the results are good if testing hasn’t been done ?

Don't forget they have been monitoring helium continuously in the drill mud all the way down. They have told us that and have shown us pictures. They may have nothing they can report (there cannot be a discovery without wireline and DST results ) but they have some pretty strong indications of what is down there. And I still like the fact that he used the word historic in one of recent tweets.

No comments about lead in Zambia and how they are going to reduce lead dust in their digging, trucking of materials, precessing, and how they are going to remediate the tailings in to better healthier long term situation. They have been asked for a letter explaining this. They should release the answer that they sent and talk about this openly.

thank you

I hope they get that rig unloaded soon. Just laughed when I was looking at an update on one of my small canadian companies in an area with a lot of infrastructure.

....pleased to announce that it has received the drill licence for its fourth well on its current land block. The well is scheduled to spud on August 7th as a production offset well. The well is anticipated to take approximately 14 days to drill to a total depth of approximately 2,700 meters followed by a service rig to run completion testing and production analysis. While testing of that well the drill rig will be mobilized to drilling the first well on the another land block.

You get the idea - hoping this new rig can knock out those shallow wells on the legacy blocks pretty quickly. Not complaining but looking for some gradual improvement in pacing.

SeagullsPlan - Are you really implying that people on here are talking about a drill campaign about to start and not the completion/testing of the first drill?

I was referring to this post of BigPlan - i think volumes are picking up as we get closer to the drill. With the chance of success so high and the upside potential, it's worth a small investment

I really didn't have to post anything about that - he probably just typed it wrong.

We are all very focused on the preliminary RESULTS of the drill. We all know it spud June 12 and needed a sidetrack a few weeks into it, and that it has been drilling again for a few more weeks with DM telling us once a week that everything is proceeding nicely. We all just have a lot of anticipation. Especially when DM's words of encouragement soemtimes contains words like "historic".

We are not getting closer to the drill. Minchin has had mud on his hands for a month. We are getting closer to the drill results.