Member Info for Scott22

trek: it is seeming a bit weird. I read through the whole Management's Discussion and Analysis from the annual report.
Not that much new but a little interesting. Trying to figure out what is keeping such a tight lid on the shares relative to what seems to be proven value proposition.

- Delays are obviously a factor. I hope Coho comes on at predicted rate and that they say something about a Coho development well that they said was scheduled a long time ago. They need to grow production and revenues.
- Cascadura is the big one for 2022. Big time increase in production and revenues. They need approval of field development plan as next step. Then lots of action begins including facilities, two new drill pads, development wells, a liquids pipeline to the south.
- Royston reserves were a little disappointing but will be much higher over time. Royston is producing very little on extended flow test of upper 84 feet but that not surprising. Water still a dirty word. The two addditional exploratory wells (Royston Deep and Kracken) are huge 2022 items, but field development and major ramp in production and revenues from Royston Field are likely 2023 or 2024 activities.
- Need to get Star Valley rig back to work (another delay) but they have to be ready to go on Royston drill pad to drill Royston Deep and Kraken - before they knock off the two Coora legacy wells. And why not tell us whether or not they and going to extend one of the Coora wells as a deep Hererra test. If not, why not, while they are sitting right there.
- Maybe there is some overhang from the $2.50 natural gas price, even though I like that because it gives huge margin, is at the wellhead, and serves as cash flow guarantee to do everything else.
- Maybe the royalty/tax situation in Trinidad is an ongoing depressant though that has been lightened a little.

I still do not get it. TXP story is a good one and seems intact. I added a little more today at US $1.10. I have another bid in. Nibbling away at reaching my target round number - which has replaced a US $2.00 price as the end point for building my position.

trek: Thanks. Malcy comments make sense to me.

Thanks Trek, I enjoyed your post. Moving averages are instructive at times. And you are right that any stock going down is going to be rated as a strong sell. Until it is not going down any more but starts up and thus is rated as a buy as the up trend gets mote powerful. In fact what you learn when the rating changes is that it is something that you should have bought back when it was a sell.

In case of TXP in my opinion it is just fundamentally very undervalued. I have not sold any. I am happy to keep buying. Sooner or later some of the value will translate into a higher stock price. It is sometimes easiest to identify extreme undervaluation during a market meltdown which is why most of the money I have made in stocks has been from buying as heavily as I can at market meltdown points. October 1987, summer of 1998 (Russian flu), Y2K meltdown, great financial recession, and most recently covid onset and shutdown March 2020. If I had been selling and not buying at those five times, I would have lost at least half of my total investment gains. And it is good at those times to know some companies extremely well so that you can accurately judge the potential valuation they might fetch with a recovery. I bought OVV at $2.35 on March 9, 2020 and again at $2.50 on 3/30/2020. There was a long window of totally unreasonable share price. Almost everything in energy sector was trashed. I also bought CVE and CEQP among others. Now I clearly wish I had bought more but OVV Friday closed at $55.13. At $55 it is a strong buy riding a great up trend. At $2.50 it was a strong sell riding a strong negative trend.

We are not in a stock market crisis right now though that could happen. And I did not really amp up my TXP buying until September 2020 so it is not one of my market meltdown picks. But if TXP establishes an uptrend based on valuation and new results and future prospects - but also based on sequential robust growth in revenues and earnings and reserves, then at $5 or even $10 there will be a powerful uptrend and the stock will be a strong buy, increasingly recognized.

Dirty: Do not want to talk about it here. But it is not a fake war with cities destroyed to rubble and children and grandchildren brutally killed. There is trauma that will last generations. Real trauma.

dai: that sucker could actually drill all the shallow wells in the lakebed that they could ever want.

But it can't touch the red sandstone or the Karoo.

A double bottom is a powerful chart reversal pattern indicating a change in trend and momentum. We do not have that yet and the trouble is that you really can't predict a double bottom, just recognize it after it has already happened. But once it forms there is good chance of moving on up. I think I have mentioned this before but I have been watching to see if such a chart formation might develop.

Friday's late 20% bounce off the bottom makes this seem more likely, if TXP shares can build on that. If the shares climb back above US $2.00 over the next few weeks or months, the chart would form a beautiful double bottom and the correct response might be to buy more TXP and not to just harvest the gains.

Anyway I am not a technical analysis person but I dabbled in it in the 80's. The biggest problem with TA is not showing how strong a trend is - in fact TA is pretty good at that. This downtrend in TXP has been pretty strong, but I think we all have been feeling that without needing clues from the chart. The problem with TA is that there are not many accurate and reliable signals of a trend reversal, either reversing up from a bottom or reversing down from a top. The double bottom (first instance) and the double top (second instance) are not perfect but are about as good as it gets. Trouble is that they only count after they have fully formed. Which has not happened at this point for TXP. Which is why this message is labelled "musing". Happy to be corrected by any current TA practitioners. 40 years is a long time to have moved on from that.

This part is interesting:

"Minister Young was pleased with the plans from Touchstone and urged company to continue with its plans and to consider opportunities presented in the upcoming Onshore Bid Round given the high oil and gas prices. He expressed his optimism at the production to be realised from the discoveries in the Ortoire Block. "

It is great to have open support from the government. They want TXP to increase production and they are confident that that is going to happen based on discussions with PB and XM about TXP plans.

They urged the company "to consider opportunities in the upcoming bid round" . They did that publicly in a press release. That is important because the government has full discretion about who gets the bid awards, and they are happy with TXP because they actually met their drill commitments on Ortoire block (unlike some other past bid winners) and because they have had discoveries from their exploration wells including the first on shore natural gas in decades at a time when Trinidad needs more gas from any source.

Now they have to help as much as possible to get COHO hooked up and also help to get approval for the overall Cascadura plan so they can hook up the first two Cascadura wells and get going quickly on development drilling on the Cascadura field. If they unleash Cascadura it could be producing 200 mmcf/day or about 33,000 boed by end of 2023, compared to less than 1500 bopd now for entire company, mainly legacy wells with a little dollop from Royston) . COHO will also add 1,333 boed and that could be doubled (or even more) with one COHO development well.

Wish they could figure out how to extract lead and zinc from those huge tailing piles in Zambia without stirring up dust and further poisoning that town. That would increase their green credibility. They are not talking about that much any more. They were supposed to be working with the government in Zambia on advancing a plan.

daibelts: Biggest halibut we caught was 50 pounds by my grandson. Biggest one caught on our boat (6 people, two parties) was 100 pounds. They clean them on boat, flash freeze and vacuum wrap at resort, have totally efficient way to ship them back to arrive a day or two after you get home. All the time on the water we had view of snow covered mountains in the background, wilderness island in foreground, whales surfacing around us, and never saw another person or another boat. Afnogak island is 40 miles by 20 miles and has exactly one resort with 4 guest cabins and a mess house and and a couple of support buildings including the owner's house. Believe it or not they had a chef who spends winters at a 5 star restaurant in Hawaii.

Anyway, I am trying to buy more Helium 1 at US $ 0.11. Limit bid won't fill yet. All my prior shares I bought on LSE for $50 cost per order of 10,000 shares. (current total 130,000). Might have to go back to LSE. They need to get a rig secured. It is always dangerous to say: "By end of quarter I am going to tell you all the details about our 2022 drill campaign (who, when, where, how many) " and have that fall apart. I would not say that unless I already knew all the details. On the other hand he has 10 more days to pull it off. Be a hero David.

Pretty key (short term) to have some concrete details and timelines in the upcoming earnings report and in this presentation. Hope they know that. Assume Paul not yet in Trinidad or we would get a photo on the twitter account or the FB page.

it cost TXP one million dollars to mobilize a rig from canada to houston and then by ship to Trinidad. Tanzania is a longer voyage, though the starting place is Houston and not alberta. I was a little surprised at the cost and doubt this will be less. Though maybe the fact that it is shipped in containers makes a difference.

Wilderness trip to afnogak island was awesome in every respect. wish I could post a few photos. float planes, ocean fishing for halibut and lingcod, whale sightings, hiking, bears, natural beauty, glaciers, grandson time, no cell phones or internet.

transport will be a million. or more. then two wells will be more than 4 million total. Plus they have to test the wells they tt hey are positive (costs more but would solve the funding problem for good, with a variety of options).

I thought Primera the construction arm of TXP was building the pipeline. They should be very qualified. If it is all set to go in terms of agreements they just have to do it quickly, really urgently. That one little Coho well adds 1333 boed , almost doubling the production of the company in boed. It is not much compared to Cascadura (when developed 20 times greater production than a single Coho well). But still double company output in boed is not nothing.

For Pro: from those satellite images can someone figure out the approximate distance of pipe laid and an estimate of how many yards to go? If the company will not simply tell us.

the interviewer said he was “passing through”. that usually means in transit from one place (south africa) to another place. Should ask him where was point B. (business or vacation?)

I don't have 3 million shares. My 40k shares would earn me 400 pounds per years. That would be alright if it happens because my investment is modest. Go big is the property strategy. Unless the shares go south. JLP is high risk and also high reward. Goal is to balance the likelihood of good versus bad outcome and the magnitude of possible gains versus possible losses at each price point. All that informs the attractiveness of the shares compared to other possible investments.

a pence per year would be 26.4 million pounds a year. the poster said a 2-3 penny dividend. if that is a quarterly dividend then the math is 26.4 million pounds times 8-12 each year.

that was millions of pounds not billions - i seem to be decimally challenged though in this case it was text editor challenged.

sorry for the distraction. and a return to old worries. maybe a bit unsettled. will just follow along and see what happens. have not sold and have no intention to do that. will not buy more but have no problem with others in a different situation doing that.

I listened to the recent IG interview by Leon and it is very good. It re-emphasizes all the reasons why I bought into JBL. It is a good story.

I was also interested in the constant banner of disclaimers running across the bottom of the screen.l during the interview. While I still hope to benefit from success of JBL , I can afford to lose this investment (as the banner says can happen to 68 percent of retail investors in these type of issues). Just think of my worries as a little banner of warning not to bet the farm here, unless one has several other farms.

Best to all. And remember that a 2-3 pence dividend per quarter would cost them 200 -300 billion pounds a year.