Member Info for Scott22

if they have 20 million of cash in the bank and prospects of a rapidly increasing cash stream, why wouldn’t they pay ARCAM 7.8 million which is very nice return on 5.8 million loan and the deal they agreed on. 200,000,000 shares at current 15 pence share price is 30 million pounds. That is a hefty return on 5.8 million loan in 2019. Who exactly got that money and is any of it going to principals (and associates) of the company?

sorry about the math, clearly a trillion is 1000 billion so lots of room for new shares. I was just so impressed by the huge number that Carl Sagan was whispering in my ear (“billions and billions” ). I do understand market cap and percent increase in share price. But growth in share count rising faster than growth of company is not a good formula. And a very low share price is bad for several reasons. Spread is very wide relative to share price , no shares trade in tenths of a pence. And any dividend would be tiny even at 10% or share price of a couple of pence. Any reasonable dividend could not be afforded. So you say, just own few million shares to earn a meaningful dividend stream, but that is not always practical . For lots of reasons. Unless you get 200,000,000 shares as payoff of a 5.8 million relatively short term loan. Many of you are much more experienced in AIM investing than I am. But I am no longer too hopeful about this one. Maybe just faulty math and need for more education. I’m keeping my shares (relatively small stake (40k) and in black. So we can score this in 1 and 2 and 5 years. Will be happy to have much better outcome than I am anticipating.

the reason the share count got that high was that is was increasing faster than revenue and profits. and the most recent 200 million shares to pay a 5.8 million dollar loan was the worst. And I don’t totally agree with “share count doesn’t matter”. At some point it matters, not to make market cap higher but to blunt any realistic chance to increase price of any one share. Do you think a trillion shares would be okay? (only 4times current count). 10 trillion?

They must be within 1000 yards. Maybe less. Why not put a graphic on the website and on twitter and on TXP FB page with number of yards to go. Then update it every day. It is just hard to believe that it takes months to construct a few hundred yards of a collecting pipeline. We could all see in real-time the exact rate of progress. Should not have to hope for a clear sky on the next satellite pass. Should not be a secret.

By the way the GDP of South Africa is about 265 billion pounds and GDP
of Zambia about 15 billion pounds. Math does not work for each share of company (a 1/265,000,000,000 stake) to ever be worth a hole lot.

Even a profitable rapidly growing small company cannot really reward shareholders if the share count is growing at an even faster clip than revenues and profits. 2.64 B shares is too many. And the most recent 200 million increase in shares to repay a 2019 5.8 million pound loan is obscene. To earn 10 p per share in annual profits and pay out 1 pence of dividends each quarter they would need annual revenues of 2.64 billion pounds. Seems unlikely. I am not going to sell any but I have pretty much lost interest and any hope for significant share price gain in multiples of current price. Math is against that.

I was making the assumption (foolish I suppose) that Coho would be on line by the time they get star valley rig up and running at Coora and those two Coora wells drilled. Then if Royston not ready to go, jump over and do Coho 2 which would keep the star valley rig and crew occupied until Royston all set to go.

Operation guy was in air on way to Houston to look at the containerized rig.

Can’t take long to get to Houston once on a commercial flight. Or long to make a decision once there.

Don’t forget that Ian and DM were in Houston at the big Helium meeting. Maybe they made important contact who heard their story and wants be be involved in this stage (and beyond if discovery is made).

It will cost a million to mobilize a rig from Houston. Drilling and testing one well would use the rest of their cash. Two wells mght be possible but not likely. Raising money after one successful well would be easier (and at higher price so less dilutive). That is lots of pressure on one well. Maybe a deal somewhat like the Mitchell deal would be possible. Second well for shares. That might guy be a tough sell. They can’t negotiate a complex deal like an off take agreement without David there. Anyway I would feel better if they had 30 million in the bank for a robust 2022 drilling and testing program.

they do not need two pipeline crews. The whole pipeline is 3 km. (which is why they drilled Coho first). they must have had well over 2 km done before they paused and now they have added 200 yards. Two pipeline crews could see each other. this pipeline hook up in permian basin or montney would have been done in less than a week. just do it.

Sorry about the last messed up post

I think they should get the star valley rig started at Coora pad right away. Then if they are not ready to drill at Royston, just move and drill a Coho development well. That is the quickest way to add 10mmcf gas per day which adds another 1333 boed right away. Cascadura won’t flow until late 2022 and cascadura development wells won’t happen until well into 2023. So why not slip in a Coho development well if Royston Deep and Kraken (both from Royston pad) are not ready to go at time the two Coora legacy wells are done.

I think the should get star valley rig started at Coho right away. Then if Royston not ready, just drill a Coho development well. That is the quickest way to ad 10mmcf gas per day which adds another 1333 boed right away. Cascadura won’t flow until late 2022 and cascadura development wells won’t happen to nail well into 2023. So why not slip in a Coho development well if Royston not ready at time the 2 Coora legacy wells are done.

Nice thing about Paul is that he is a good leader and has assembled a good team and together they have created a company with a good culture. That is good and is not a given. Not all of the problems have been his fault. If the first 5 well drilling program had been a bust, that would have reflected bad on the team. But it actually was pretty wildly successful. They bid on Ortoire block, studied it, added XM first as consultant and then as key employee, made a plan, drilled exploratory wells, made discoveries, mobilized advanced rig from Canada. And they are looking to major production increases of natural gas (200 mmcf/day) and oil (10,000 barrels a day just from Royston with more discoveries possible including the Kraken wild card which could be a total gamechanger). All that will push production way over 25,000 boed. And the share price is below where it was when they only had legacy assets and were hoping to increase production there to maybe 5,000 bopd max. Does not make total sense. I’m glad Paul is running show for next few years. I do wish JW would retire.

He looked a little depressed and he should have combed his hair. Otherwise okay but really nothing new in positive or negative direction. Agree with others that he needs to head to Trinidad and lead the team there for awhile, and communicate directly (maybe daily) with Energy Ministry and NGC about Cascadura. Want to minimize chance of delays and maximize chance of smooth progress.

As for Coho, remains baffling. We were told pipeline extension was complete and the just had to turn spigot after 1200 page agreement was signed. Now we are told that agreement has been signed and they are starting to do some trenching and welding. Weather is good. Building a pipeline spur of this length and diameter should be days to a week or two if they were just starting now. But I really thought that all or almost all of it was completed many weeks ago. It is at this point just a mystery.
Star Valley rig has to be mobilized soon at Coora. This last RNS implied no deep test there at this time, though they had hinted about that in the past. They have to do those two wells and then move to Royston site for serious drilling of Royston Deep and Kraken.

Watched the proactive video interview again. Maybe Paul just does better with Katie or Sarah. More energy or something. But as others have said, no amount of talking at this point will equal some doing - and the doing will have to lead to production and revenue growth. Have to demonstrate operational competence and execution of plan. Everything is right there waiting to happen, but they have to make it happen.

got some at $1.15 and 1.10.

have orders in at 1.05 and 1.00. If those fill I will be at my newly designated cap.

Then will just have to follow along and see if anything bad enough to change the story comes down the pike. Let’s all hope for some skill from the star valley rig. Need geology and expertise . Throw in some help from the ministry of energy and NGC (to streamline their part a bit). . That all equals execution. Let’s just do it Paul.

some nice graphics and they add them new reserves numbers. (which are a little disappointing).

On slide 6 they reversed the labels on the major oil and gas pipelines. (or they have been labeling them wrong for years including slides 14 and 16 in this same presentation.

They can fix that but it is a little sloppy.

not much to say. disappointing. not catastrophic but disappointing.

world a lot worse than disappointing. hopefully not casastropic

If TXP pays your mortgage off, I’ll be happy too.

I like i3E but I didn’t buy it. There are a number of companies that bought into canada oil patch slightly below best areas when big dogs were high grading. At these prices those areas are magnificent. Wells pay off in well under a year. Headwaters Exploration was another one. (cddrf). But I bought Ovintiv because they had high graded portfolio in US and canada and advantage energies because they had prime montney acres and their own infrastructure. Advantage will be zero net debt in 4-5 months. And I bought TXP again but a little later. TXP has not really participated in big energy price increase, mainly because they are not selling much energy. Yet. When that changes they may catch up.

Dartron: By the way I like the strategy that you have followed. Certainly TXP has remained "on sale" during a period where many other shares have been rocketing. The best thing I did in March 2020 was to buy Ovintiv. If I had bought all Ovintive back then, I would have a lot more money to buy more TXP now. Oh well. I am not that good at timing the speculative stocks, especially not good on the selling part. I had ETSY on the speculative stock side, made five times my money, but sold it 2 months before covid which added rocket fuel. I have lots of stories about selling too early, and holding on too long for that matter. I have not batted a thousand. Not even .500. But the ones that go up 5-10 fold cover a few that go south.

I have 20 individual stocks over different sectors and classes (large cap and small cap growth and value, plus special situations/turnarounds which is where TXP lives). TXP is 6.6% of my individual stock holdings as of today. My individual stocks are a little heavy in energy space since March 2020. My individual stocks are about 30% of my portfolio; the other part has very diversified mix of 19 mutual funds including some target funds that are diversified by themselves , some cash, a LT retirement MM fund that still pays 3% interest for investments prior to a certain date which I meet , some TIPS, some REITs. Point is, I am not betting the farm on TXP. It would not hurt terribly if the story goes south. But I do not expect that and it could add significant wealth if it works. That is the reason I always have some money in speculative stocks that have potential to grow in multiples rather than in percentages.

As I said, TXP right now my top pick in the speculative category, though not my only one. Helium 1 and Jubilee metals Group are my only other AIM stocks but I only have 130,000 shares worth about 17K of helium one and half that in Jubilee. In Canada I have Frontier Lithium and Royal Helium. I had Advantage Energies of Canada in the speculative basket but it graduated to small cap growth,. I can assure you that the rest of my portfolio does not look ANYTHING like that mix. Only 5% total goes to speculative stocks. Occasionally that might move up towards 10% if something takes off but then I either sell it if it gets ahead of itself or move it to another basket if it has outgrown speculative status and I want to keep it.

I hope that TXP eventually moves into small cap growth (or even value if it starts paying a dividend) and becomes a long term core holding. Of course long term somewhat relative.

I have another buy in at US$ 1.25. TXP is at top of my buy list in this space (small cap speculative) , as it has been for very long stretch.

I have set a maximum share count target (just to be a little prudent) and I still have a ways to go. So I either hit that target or shares move above US $2.00 or the story materially changes. Otherwise I slowly add with new money.

Right now the world has bigger trouble than paperwork delays in Trinidad. Prayers for Ukraine. It is terrible. It feels terrible watching from the middle of US. I imagine that it feels a lot worse in London. We have contributed a little but it feels hopeless. It is hard to understand bombing dense civilian populations in the cities of a peaceful country that really is not threatening Russian state - people or territory - and has no ambition to ever do that. (I know the politics are complex but that seems an accurate high level current assessment). We do not seem to make much progress as a species. We are capable of a lot of badness. At some point we may learn if we are capable of mural destruction of the world by its factions. I hope the answer is no. I hope the question does not get any hotter than it is right now for my life and many generations after. Sorry for this last paragraph. All my best to everyone. Not looking for any response and not wanting to derail the board.