Member Info for Saxondale

Looks like another day of positive buying . Nas up 7% 100k volume in first 30 minutes .

IN terms of Mcap - with 45% more shares than a while ago , using rough calcs todays £1.70 would be £2.50 in old money .

So given what we know now about the next coming stages - we are still well below where we should be .

1.93 euro 333k volume up 9.3% today .

Nick tick up to end the week .

Probably straight after the H1 results , which last year were published 29th Aug .

So next few weeks or so I guess .

Although it may well be soon out of date once the partnering bidding process concludes.

Basically the note recognises the positive news , but they need to do their homework too to understand how this translates into revenue potential . Huge figures involved - so expect a large adjustment when they work it out .

Redeye posted an update after the FDA RNS .

No change in valuation but they will address that after H1 results .

Base valuation of 2 euro with 5 euro bull .

A lot lower than the 12 euro bull they had last year - but we have more shares etc.

However - they note that this news warrants positive SP action and they will revisit the analysis later .

Overall, we are truly encouraged by this feedback from the FDA. While we do not make any

changes to our valuation for now, we argue that this news warrants a positive share price

reaction. We will revisit this in correlation with the company’s upcoming H1 report, including any

potential adjustments to our estimates and valuation mode

https://www.redeye.se/api/articles/download-file/f6b3b5c6-f0aa-3425-9c96-e76c8cf21979

There are a huge number of extra shares now - so its to be expected . Majority are in sticky hands , but thats possibly why the swings are a bit exaggerated sometimes as the liquidity isn't instantaneous .

You'd think that any interested party would start building a position soon , if not already . We will never see it in a TR1 , as they aren't dumb , but now we know that within a few months at the latest , they should have things wrapped up with a partner , or possibly we just get taken out lock stock and test tube .

1.4 million shares traded on Nas . Now we are in the spotlight we will be up and down a fair bit over the next few weeks . News could drop any time regarding further FDA designations and trial design , as well as any big news .

I've never successfully second guessed when this lifts off , so trading it for me without being able to look under the bonnet will be a waste of time .

Would be good now to get a Analyst take on the value - I expect that will be forthcoming . Perhaps Red Eye will have an update shortly ?

Having said that 100s of millions of $ is pretty 'wow' .

Juho is just so laid back lol .

Confirmation of what we expected this change meant to their sales forecast .

That spike was the last minute dot com crew hoping for some miracle news . Don't panic - its bounced back up pretty well .

I was hoping for a bit more of a 'wow' factor with some numbers , but to be honest I think they already are in discussion with who they will end up doing a deal with , so its just a case of wait for the RNS now .

Confirmation again that we will not be going it alone - no more raises . The package is attractive enough , even more so now .

Partner will run P3 .

We know they have multiple parties in discussion .

£100's of millions difference in the sales potential just on this frontline target population .

We've only got an Mcap of £173m .

More data coming up - then end of P2 meeting and plan P3 ( 2025)

Accelerated approval available for both settings - with confirmatory extra data .

Reductions in time and cost will benefit the partner - making FARN even more attractive for them .

Stay tuned for news coming soon - says Juho .

Radically cut cost and timeframe . 10 of millions of trial costs removed .

Impact on sales forcast is 100s of millions .

No P3 rqeuired for r/r , and no P2 required for the P3 frontline

Frontline setting - currently AZ has poor response rate - 16-20% CR (Bexmab with frontline is 80% albeit with smaller number )

P3 trail perhaps 150 patients (75 on each side ) - so not huge .

More frontline patients will enter the Bexmab P2 trial - up to 20 .

How big would P3 be on frontline ?

I've sold portions here over the years , but always come back and I've never owned as many Faron shares as I do now .

But its generally been just a long term hold .

Mind you , when the hiccup RNS landed , by chance I was sitting right on the computer and had literally seconds to decide what to do . Sold a wedge load just as it started to drop , and them bought them all back at much lower price over the next week . At least that took the sting out of it . Most probably weren't that fortunate .

The next few months are going to be exciting for the SP I believe , because Faron aren't in a panic to sign anything unless its too good to refuse . They have plenty of funds - so no back to the wall or ticking clock . The P2 is still ongoing - they will have further data coming in the next month or so - then ASH .

All the time they are in the shop window . The market is now cottoning on that we are a 'sure thing ' . Yes , traders will take profits , and we will get some down days I expect , but the bulk of holders know that this has 'multibagger' written all over it . Timo , Pension funds etc , are not day traders .

Hopefully tomorrow the team will explain to the market that this program is now totally derisked , and that the prize we were going for is much bigger than initially envisaged .

This Project Frontrunner looks like a real 'fastpass' route to approval .

I remember Faron were enrolled in Project Optimus regarding the dosing levels etc - all part of the same OCE set up ( FDA expert groups )

So it does look like we are being given the best priority now .

The blurb seems to highlight exactly Farons situation - we have a ground breaking drug , but in the refractory setting ( where we are treating a minority ) , it isn't getting to the majority of front line patients who could benefit and most likely respond much better ( if thats possible with Bex ) . As it is - in the refractory setting , we are knocking out of the park - so it was probably a no-brainer to give Faron this accelerated access .

The blurb -

We also want to encourage the investigation of new drugs or approved drugs in new indications, earlier in the course of the disease. We have discussed this in the context of an OCE initiative called Project FrontRunner. The paradigm that has been followed for a long time is to introduce new drugs after patients have exhausted other lines of treatment. This approach does not really serve patients.

This is particularly the case when investigating drugs that may provide unprecedented treatment effects and have better safety profiles. Such drugs which reflect the advances in oncology, are essentially out of reach for patients until they have progressed on several therapies. By the third or fourth line in some diseases, most patients may have become ineligible to receive these new treatments either because of accumulated treatment-related toxicity over time, and/or because the disease itself has progressed such that they can no longer receive the treatment.

Full article ( March 2023 )

https://cancerletter.com/conversation-with-the-cancer-letter/20230331_4/

So another 1 million shares traded on the Nas today .

I'm old enough to remember when 2000 shares was a big day . How things have changed .

I guess there will be a big churn with the placing shares , but there is no shortage of appetite to buy them and the price keeps rising .

Faron has been a sleeping giant with Bex . Always had the potential - just needed that first leg up to get out of the starting blocks .

I get the feeling we are about to join the big boys .

Not sure I've got the b*lls to hold out for 2 zeros on the SP . I may sell a few at £50 , and if it hits £60 I might even tell the missus !

I don't think Faron could do a P3 without further fundraise , but personally I see more benefit in a Big Pharma now coming in , and perhaps bankrolling the project - with big milestone payments and some upfront cash , whilst giving Faron the independance to continue their research and with money coming in , pursue other areas for Bex and further partnerships .

Either that or a buy out - but again , what is Faron worth ? Still a long way to go with unlocking the Bex potential .

Another whopper of a day .

Maybe partner discussions have accelerated ?

No need for P2 to complete . The FDA guidance was the last box to tick for any potential suitor .

This project is making a real difference - for example ( and apologies for the cross ramp in advance ) - but my main holding Faron Pharmaceuticals announced yesterday it was involved in Project Frontrunner - they are being given front line patients , and a accelerated route to approval with small numbers in a P3 trial . Goes to show when you have something groundbreaking , there are ways of getting to market quicker , and thats what Big Pharma want .

Well that was a whopping day on the Naz ( vol 1.24 million over 2000 transactions - and 30% up on the day )

Mcap now £132m

Buyout price would have to be £1.5 - £2 billion minimum for this cutting edge platform .

Bexcombo is P2 ready remember - and that is where the real big money could come in .