Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

Fair comment there Carrington. Personally, I've held onto all of my SSPG shares. Very wise not to have all eggs in one basket 👍 - As I alluded to before on here; the Iran situation was bound to get messy, big military endeavours have a track record of developing in a manner which few expect or anticipate. I still expect SSPG to do well though, the global scale they have will likely mean even if there's lower trading in some spots there will likely be surges for other venues - on balance likely to continue the good performance and healthy revenues IMO - DYOR.

Comparing Amazon to CPI is like comparing an F1 car with a Russian Lada Samara.

But... You ain't got no capital Lieutenant Dan.

£3.34 IMO - Moment it strikes that price level I'd imagine strong buying demand will kick in. IMV - DYOR

Appears to be fluctuating within the £2.71-£2.97 (ish) range. I think it'll now be unlikely to shift outside this area, for a few weeks at least, for two reasons: Moment it heads above £3 v.likely high selling pressure will knock it back down, on no further contract news (exception here if something should land). Moment it attempts to drop towards £2.50p I think some buying pressure will rapidly build, as many will lock onto the recent large public contract which IMV did boost the underlying company value here - even if the myriad of other issues remain ongoing with a risk premium being factored in. In summary I think my £2.87 SP estimate was a fair valuation of CPI. IMO - DYOR

Is the thing no one has been talking about here...

Any LTH in CPI who bought their stock years ago has been fully exposed to zero dividend income all that time, and will have watched the business they're invested in become ever smaller (not to mention their share holdings diluted (RI plus recent RL 5% stock giveaway)). Added to that is a whole heap of cumulative inflation over that duration, only amplifying the fiscal pain for the LTH's furthermore - IMO.

Hi Trisor - TBH I found that line quite revealing as should any additional 'unforseen' startup costs (above those forecasted by those who drew up and closed the deal on the contract) and all of a sudden CPI could well find itself to be reporting financials on the downside of guidance. It's a big contract, overspend on start up feels rather inevitable to me. I recognise there could be good money in that contract longer term but... will that enter the company coffers soon soon enough to rescue CPI from it's ongoing downtrend? Personally, I doubt it will do.

I think that contract has helped CPI in terms of it's underlying 'business valuation' - critical towards getting a half decent price for LTH's should there be a bidder for taking the firm private? (or a takeover by another PLC?). I definitely do not view CPI as being bankrupt or at risk of imminent bankruptcy (much more likely it will just keep on shrinking).

Hexam has much credibility - Really wise inputs to discussion when I was navigating my TUI investment (they did a rights issue - which was actually amazing for me).

Really interesting post you stated there Trisor "There was no FCF in 2025 Hexam. The promise was that FCF would turn positive by the end of the year. This was confirmed in the results RNS"...

Interesting because a long while back I said precisely this, that CPI would not achieve FCF by FY2025 and at best it might do so from start of 2026 but you ridiculed me for saying so!

Yet here we are! Well at least you now admit it

Https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/totalreturnswap.asp

"Strip that out and adjusted operating profit is £113m."

Removing those costs is like removing the sugar from a cake though tbh.

So Trisor is correct and AI has got it wrong?

Woolitch - the financials, dated 31st Dec 2025 (end of their financial yr) do not show FCF as achieved. They clearly state loss as the figs have brackets around them.

This nonsense about 'turning positive towards the end' is completely meaningless. FCF was not achieved in these results.

Q: capita plc had its results today. did it achieve free cash flow positive?

A: Based on the full-year 2025 results released on March 10, 2026, Capita plc did not achieve positive free cash flow for the full year.

Free cash outflow (excluding business exits) was £54.0m

(Reminder: AI states: 'Free Cash Outflow' is not a standard term, but refers to the total cash leaving the business to cover these expenses, such as paying suppliers, wages, and investing in fixed assets.)

Trisor - I was crystal clear throughout. I said I was neither invested nor short here; 100% meant what I said. I have been an uninvested lowly Pi as you eloquently & accurately put it there. I told you all along I was building my understanding because I can't afford to take high risks - I just don't have that luxury of taking a big gamble. I told you I've done well since investing from Dec 2022, also true - remarkably well actually but... I still only have a very small pot. However, I have done my research and I intend to keep building on the successes I'm invested in whilst also learning from watching stocks I think are interesting but which I can't invest or take a gamble over; hopefully making my forecasting methods (then seeing where things end up compared to my analysis) better and better.

After all... that's what these discussion boards are for right?

Macy - I've appreciated our discussions - look forward to the next ones 🙂 - and long may any disagreements remain civil & respectful so we can both learn from those different viewpoints!

Hi AdamWoodman - Pls can you point me to the section where FCF is confirmed?

This is my interpretation:

(Note: 1. Definitions and calculations of non-IFRS measures (alternative performance measures) can be found in the Appendix.)

Free cash outflow1 for the Group was £82.1m (2024 outflow: £122.7m), including the outflow from businesses exited, or being exited, of £28.1m.

I should make you aware.

The figure is displayed in the table as: "£(82.1)m" - of course it's the case anything with brackets around it displayed in the table is a 'loss' btw.

Then the RNS states: Free cash flow excluding business exits1 £(54.0)m - again, a loss.

AI states: 'Free Cash Outflow' is not a standard term, but refers to the total cash leaving the business to cover these expenses, such as paying suppliers, wages, and investing in fixed assets.

Whereas you'll no doubt already be aware 'Free Cash Flow (FCF) is the net cash a company generates after covering operating expenses and capital expenditures, representing funds available for investors or debt repayment.'

A subtle difference I agree - but... a mega critical difference IMV when it comes to interpretation of today's RNS.

Then the RNS went on to state: "We continue to expect to be free cash flow positive in 2026, delivering a positive free cash flow excluding business exits1 of between £20m - £40m, reflecting the non-repeat of 2025 cash flows to deliver the cost reduction programme and ICO settlement, with cash conversion of 70% to 80%."

Now for me I take that to mean FCF has NOT been confirmed to have occurred by end of FY2025 (i.e. not confirmed in by these results today).

They appear to be saying that will come in 2026 (FY 2026? - TBH who knows??! And also they've put some caveats into that statement above too - 'we continue to expect' and 'excluding business exits £20m-£40m') - some may say 'smoke & mirrors'?

IMO - DYOR

IMO, sure CPI financials are awful but... they didn't misrepresent anything beyond what is permitted within market rules. I think investors read one thing and wanted/hoped it meant something very different and positive from that which it actually did mean. I pointed this out numerous times actually, only to find myself on the receiving end of a barrage of abusive vitriol. Hopefully at least someone out there may have looked deeper into the CPI financial situation following the numerous points which I made on here 🤞- perhaps.

Tbh eddier - I looked at this stock as a potential investment a long while back.

My determination to see through my prognosis on the financials was because of the sheer vitriol I got when I started asking questions which folks on here did not like one bit.

I made a forecast last year which I got correct, and I made another ahead of today (I was slightly out but today's savage sell off has proven my general point). I warned & recommend diligence on the CPI financials.

For me I've learned what I needed to here, so I'll not be posting much on here going forwards (I may check on progress once in a blue moon but broadly speaking I called this stock correctly, v.glad I steered well clear 👍).

HS: I should explain. I've tried crunching the adjusted figs to make sense of the RNS today... Personally (open to methodology others are using if anyone cares to share) there are so many concurrent adjustments going on in their financials that it's really challenging to establish what's really going on underneath the hood & analyse the true state of the engine in their automobile...

So instead I've 'zoomed out' to CPI macro's:

Total Revenue: Down (-4.51%)

Net Debt (non-IFRS): Up (+11.71%)

Shares in circulation: Up (now ~120.030667mil)

Dividend: None

Net financial debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio (Post-IFRS 16): FY2024 = 2.3x v.s. FY2025 = 2.5x (increase i.e. slow acceleration)

Net financial debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio (Pre-IFRS 16): FY2024 = 0.5x v.s. FY2025 = 1.0x (doubled i.e. fast acceleration)

Green box means only one thing...

Avocet123 is back, again. Although they might be getting respite for their EZJ investment today it's been a very bad one for CPI (which I think they said they hold too - why the bot trolls our SSPG board, as they took a disliking to my analysis of CPI forward look, which has been proven to have been correct today).