Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

OTCDS2023 sorry but the OTB RNS title directly contradicts what you're saying because it states:

INTERIM RESULTS FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 31 MARCH 2024 ("H1 FY24") - By their own title on their own RNS with the key bit being 'FY = Financial Year' - it's clear that H2 FY24 has not happened yet because that time period would be End Sep 24 and that's also reflected in their RNS where it states "WELL POSITIONED FOR H2 FY24".

Given gilts/bonds + bank interest rates are set to fall later this year and into next I think most of the big investors (e.g. pension funds/investment funds) won't seek to move their money even if the BT divi was to reduce a little down the line... because if you take a pension fund for example, which seeks out the best returns, and diversity for stability, for it's invested pension holders they'd be unlikely to find a much better ROI elsewhere. A divi trim could be net +ve for the SP, if the reason for current low SP is due to perceptions about careful management of debt levels.

OTCDS2023 - The most kind inflation value I could estimate for the YoY time period in question was 5.575% but... I think this may prove too generous and the eventual figure probably lies somewhere in the middle ~6% once the dust settles (6.3% may equally prove to be too high). So... max true revenue growth for OTB imo is 5-5.3% - which I think is below par, granted it's not intrinsically bad but the cash raised in this set of results and over summer 24 needs to be very healthy and imo OTB has begun with a less than ideal start. Will this trend be felt by TUI too? Or has TUI done better?...

OTCDS2023 - using ONS monthly inflation figs (12x values) from Mar 23 to Mar 24 I calculate the average inflation rate to be 6.31% over that time period. There's no YoY value available yet because ONS still has the figures for the most recent months under review but... I feel my general point remains valid because subtracting the 6.3 from the 11% revenue growth which OTB received it leaves just 4.7% and frankly I'd have expected better than this. Of course it's true that 4.7% is not to be knocked too much but... It's not the kind of stellar performance required to ratchet up the market cap value of the business significantly imo because after the summer 2024 draws to an end there is a challenging economic landscape for UK in particular with rising unemployment, high debts and falling residential property market... so the revenues will be needed to weather the winter storms ahead.

Hi OTCDS2023 - It's correct the RNS is an update for the 6months ending 31st March 2024 but.... the revenue growth figure of 11% is clearly reported in the table header as "H1 24 vs H1 23" and then in the note further below as "resulting in Group Revenue of £80.8m, +11% YOY" (below the title in bold named Financial headlines, 1st Para, after the second comma).

Yes, I've poured through OTB results and revenue was up 11% which I think is lacklustre because inflation over than 12 month period would have done heavy lifting to support that figure... so to book just 11% revenue growth is below par for the course imo.

Interesting you cite GSK there Pokerchips as yep, my wife bought in on that and I completely agree the comments on the discussion board were extremely sexist/prejudiced. Agree that Emma did well, my wife sold out for profit on her gsk stake!

On the beach released results this morning... SP currently sitting around minus ~11%

In the event we do see drops post-results I'll be looking past any short term turbulence. I have my sights set on the mid-long term play here and I'll continue gradually buying up many more tranches on any dips where I see value, to accumulate a large holding (£ cost averaged). BT is playing a critical role towards lifting productivity for UK economy, cutting emissions and selling many more digital services with added value too. The past few years have been dominated by SP of BT (and many other core businesses) declining, a trend I believe will be coming to an end within the next 0-12 months and beyond then we should see an era of consistent SP rises.

I'm sceptical and unconvinced the 0.6% March estimated figure radically alters the general/broad trend of UK macroeconomic difficulties.

If I were Jon Lewis I'd have finances to purchase in greater than £500-£1500 tranches... The +ve March GDP looks to have been greeted with a health warning by economists and ONS clearly labels that figure as 'estimated' within their data release. They'll fine tune the figure in due course and that'll be interesting to see if it remains the same, hopefully it does as low or negative GDP is good for no-one here in UK. Applying variance analysis to the figure the March does show as 'special cause variation' so perhaps a freak one off good month? Or start of a new growth trend? We'll not have to wait long to find out fortunately.

AimMaster2018 - I buy in £500-£1500 tranches yep but my total investment isn't just £1500. Though yes, I'm a small minnow in a big pond. Feel free to mock all you wish but... even £100k would barely move the dial for majority of equities. The GDP figs look better than I'd expected though BoE even commented yesterday they're unease about irregularity/inconsistency of ONS data releases in recent times. Perhaps it turns out March was a bumper month but I'll reserve judgement until the figs are revised... Does look to be a more supportive macro environment than I had anticipated though, perhaps Capita may see SP rise on this news to reflect that?

ONS says GDP for March 24 is up 0.4% following growth of 0.2% in Feb 24 (revised up from 0.1% in previous data release) and unrevised growth of 0.3% in Jan 24.

Monthly data release here:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/march2024

Quarterly data release here:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/januarytomarch2024

In Quarterly terms (this smooths out the Month to Month Variance) it seems UK GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.6% in Q1 (Jan to Mar) 2024, following declines of 0.3% in Q4 (Oct to Dec) and 0.1% in Q3 (July to Sept) 2023.

These March.figure will be revised in the months ahead by ONS. Jan & Feb are now locked in, as having been revised & confirmed already.

Divi hold would be nice too

Agreed JG68 - I cannot currently see the June statement is going to be +ve enough... Hence I'm completely willing to wait on seeing it first and yep, take the gamble I may miss out, in the highly unlikely event the June results/statement is stellar.

HHH81 - On the contrary, if I'm giving consideration to making an investment I'll want to put my cash into a business with decent prospects... Halved CPI revenues over the past 7yrs together with a challenging forward macro growth outlook is concerning. Not to mention the CPI data leak (not the MOD one which was SSCL). I'll be waiting to see the June results first with these things in mind.

I agree broomtree - I'll take more care in future.

Indeed it does SmallMoves - cheers for pointing out the text about tax liabilities, much appreciated.

Ah I see, I'd not realised they were a part of a recent award there Stupmy - I thought these had been previously bought by him.

It is peanuts now, that's correct... Back in Dec 2019 that volume of shares would have been worth ~60k... Sadly today it's worth just ~£4k and the CEO selling suggests he doesn't see SP rising in the near term and has cut his losses on half of his holdings.