Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

AimMaster2018 started the thread calling for sub £1... they also spread lots of chatter/noise about my dim view of Capita (CPI) and positive view of BT... accused me of lying about my trades and success of not having booked a loss yet since Dec 2022 when I first began trading.

WackWack - Scoff you may but... I took my money out of TUI back on Jan 2nd and yep, I posted on here to convey my opinion the delisting was causing unnecessary turbulence to TUI SP and the issue that revenues came up a little short (although better now with latest set of results this week)... Today the SP is still below the price point I sold out for on 2nd Jan (about 625p)... whereas I gradually moved money into BT stock, I saw better potential over there (8p divi announced today). I still think TUI is overpriced and will par back towards 550p, perhaps lower than that. I like TUI as a business but... just didn't see short term investment value and I think the current SP has validated my opinion.

On any sizable drop backwards I'll be resuming buying because I'm long term holding here, this is going to payout big time a few yrs from now!

Came on here to take a look at CPI's SP... meanwhile over at BT we're up 8.4%. And to think some on here were openly mocking me....

Nice soundbites on the debt 'extend pretend' but... it's utter rubbish as the global markets function on debt because any business which embarks on aggressive debt pay downs tends to find it cannot maintain growth and then subsequently the growth shortfall which follows the austerity causes the business to fold. BT needs to just keep building because the demand for data is insatiable.

To reap the rewards of that growth provides, also necessary to service debts, it's first vital to borrow, invest and sell more to the existing customer base, and win over new customers!... imo BT is doing just that with the front loaded Capex spend on FTTP. Yes, the markets may fret about debt levels but... well managed debt is precisely how a good business delivers for customers and investors. Alison is right that now the peak of the capex is here attention should now turn towards the customer service offer: as now that "Retail FTTP base grew year-on-year by 40%" and "5G base up 29% YoY" the selling to that larger market is where healthy revenues can be generated to service those debts.

Nice!

132-134p

IDoMyBest - the bit of the claim I cited didn't talk about inflation linking payouts/awards... it only mentioned applying an 8% simple interest rate. The two are completely separate things (interest rate and Inflation rate). Cheers for the link on 8% being a standard figure, helps to understand how they derived the figure. Especially given that no other members of the public have their savings index linked to the inflation rate (you have to spend/invest or save in an interest paying acct - okay some index linked bonds are available to buy from time to time).

Ah, I'd not considered the ISA complications, since I only have HL Fund & Share Account. I don't much like idea of paying extra ISA charges + fees to HL so I don't use ISA's, fees can accumulate considerably over many years! Whereas for Fund & Share account they just charge per trade.

Jedclampit - TUI is up this morning because the big players are buying, post results this morning, to draw in the small fry PI's & give them a FOMO experience... Watch it drop like a stone later on today, tomorrow and into Friday too - IMO, DYOR - the results were better than On The Beach in terms of Revenue growth but TUI has a far bigger debt stack and the issues On the Beach noted in the 'Value' holiday range will no doubt be being felt by TUI too but on a far greater scale.

I agree with your POV fleccy and additionally the claim has this bit of text: "Aggregate damages have been given a preliminary estimate of £589 million (on the basis of 8% simple interest, comprised of £238 million for BT Voice Only Customers and £351 million for BT Split Purchase Customers)."

That's a very high interest rate considering BoE rates were 0.5% and even 0.25% for much of the time period in question. There's other holes in the litigation imo as well which are very sizable.

I'm with Hargreaves Lansdown and although I don't currently have any TUI holdings my understanding is for those on HL platform the transfer will be pretty much seamless because HL permits trading in a huge swathe of equities globally. So if I had a TUI stake I'd not be fretting about it.

OTCDS2023 - BoE were clear in their 'Key judgement 3' within the latest MPC report... BoE said Services CPI inflation fell to 6.0% in March and OTB is a services based business. So lets await the myriad of proper published figs (as most currently available out there from the various sources including ONS are just estimated figures) which will land and get further refined in due course but what is clear to me is the revenues banked into the coffers of OTB over the reported period has a lot of help from inflation and that's somewhere in the approx. range of 3.8-6.3% depending exactly what's being measured and how... I still stand by my general point which is ~11% was below expectations and may help explain why OTB has not faired so well today. Now I don't know if that extends to TUI or not... I guess we won't have long to find out.

Incorrect OTC - That's because the 3.9% inflation rate by ONS is just for one quarter i.e. 3 months including End Jan24, End Feb24 and End Mar 24. You need to use the YoY inflation rate which ONS will eventually publish (as only their estimate of 6.8% is available right now) from End Mar 23 to End Mar 24 in order to directly compare the revenue to the inflation over the same time period. You can't just pluck out the most recent and lowest of the inflation figures to suit your narrative. You have to use the inflation rate which aligns with the OTB reporting points in time which this morning were END Mar 2023 to END Mar 2024.

Incorrect OTC - That's because the 3.9% inflation rate by ONS is just for one quarter i.e. 2 months of End Jan24 to End Mar 24. You need to use the YoY inflation rate from ONS from End Mar 23 to End Mar 24 to directly compare the revenue to the inflation over the same time period. You can't just pluck the most recent and lowest of the figures to suit your narrative.

For OTB: Their H1 FY23 ran from Oct 22 to Mar 23 i.e. accumulated revenue raised during that period, which ended on 31st Mar 23 totalled £72.9m.

Similarly, H1 FY24 ran from Oct 2023 to Mar 24 i.e. accumulated revenue raised during that period, which ended on 31st Mar 24 totalled £80.8m.

Difference between them being 11% revenue growth.

ONS Inflation rate for the Quarter Ending 31st Mar 23 = 9%

ONS Inflation rate for the Quarter Ending 31st Mar 24 = 3.9%

We could just take those two inflation rates, add them together and divide by two i.e. to obtain very crude average inflation estimate of the YoY inflation rate (6.45%) but... it'd be subject to lots of variation taking place in between those two date points in time... Yes, ONS has the other quarterly and monthly inflation rates in time points in between to use with making a different estimate but... it's still an estimate, as we have to wait for ONS to publish the official YoY figure which looks to be about 6.8% according to ONS at the moment but... it may end up being lower than this.

In short... your 4% figure is way way off the mark

Incorrect - Top right corner of the table on RNS page states: H1 24 vs H1 23 - It states revenue for H1 23 was £72.9m and H1 24 was £80.8m - the change between them being 11%. So to ensure comparative analysis one needs to take account of the inflation rate between those two reporting periods too, and it was much higher than 4% because if you go back to H1 23 the inflation rate for the quarter ending 31st March 2023 was a massive 9%! Now ye, it gradually declined since then but... infation accumulates.

Pokerchips - I should clarify, I don't think that BT are paying an unaffordable divi... inflation linked price hikes help ensure revenues are keeping up i.e. holding the divi is akin to cutting it anyway. There's not a need to trim.

OTCDS2023 - I know that these are actuals and that's my very point... yes, OTB reported "+11% YOY" revenue growth but... from End March 2023 to End March 2024 the Approx. inflation rate is in fact around ~6% (not yet possible to know for certain as ONS take a long while yet to revise and correct the YoY and Quarterly figures, so meanwhile I've calculated the approx. average inflation rate between the two points in time using their current published figures but acknowledging they're subject to being revised). That said I won't be a million miles out. The current inflation rate is now ~4% but that's not the rate one should apply to what is a YoY revenue growth figure as stated by OTB in the RNS, you have to also use the YoY inflation figure over the same time period else it's not a like for like comparison.