Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

Once the SSPG results have captured this summer 24 travel boom it'll do very nicely indeed! Hold for Gold! IMO - DYOR

Election night party anyone? 🥳

Challenge on results night... Drink every time the Tories lose a seat! 🍺

They're going to lose many Englishes.

Hopefully it is a GE announcement!🤞 It'd help the economy and BT's going to play a big role in driving down CO2 and driving up growth!

Cheers for clarifying fleccy and Bigtimebilly - I take from that if RNS doesn't drop in very soon then it's unlikely to be Drahi unloading and I wasn't aware of Drahi's purchase price range so that's helpful context (as no doubt he could unload once SP approaches close to his purchase price range!)

Thanks for sharing that clarification kularatnam.

Core inflation rate is looking elevated and yep, substantial drop off with energy bills looks the biggest help for CPI dropping. IMO we're definitely looking at Aug rate cut because BoE won't want to cut too much before USA, else doing so will reignite what's been gradually calming to smouldering coals of inflation... (as a cutting much earlier than Fed will cause £ to fall, driving up import costs)... but... waiting until Aug means it'll be a long while yet before business and indebted individuals can catch a break from the nasty combo of cumulative inflation and high interest rates.

We could see unemployment leap upwards towards and maybe beyond 5.25% by the year end because one 0.25% rate cut in Aug will not be enough to save some from bankruptcy/job loss.

A possible Tax cut could further prolong the agony, if BoE were to pivot and only make the one single 0.25% cut by calendar year end. Even if they make two cuts the second looks set to land too late to meaningfully help. So a difficult Autumn/Winter ahead imo.

BoE is walking a tightrope and it'll only take one mis-step for it to become the scapegoat for either a return or inflation, or onset of savage deflation.

What with Drahi having so much debt I'd say it's more than likely he was unloading into the rise. Perhaps, if you're correct about MS acting for a shadowy buyer (rather than buying themselves) then could it be someone else?

Surely with Drahi already holding such a large BT stake he could not commence that much more buying without being under legal obligation to commence a takeover bid?

Possible he's unloading a proportion yep - as what with MS having increased their holdings substantially (I think they had been simultaneously loaning out to shorters via swaps too) and with healthy volumes being purchased there has to have been a large holder selling into the SP rise. I don't think it'll matter much if Drahi reduces, this stock has many buyers who will be happy to take many shares from his hands because the recent announcement about 'peak capex' now being behind is a huge game changer. Certainly helps AK has been clear about the forward direction too. IMO the stock is now broadly attractive as an opportunity for literally anyone and any fund to invest in.

Following yesterdays trading update statement the line which I find most staggering is this:

"For the full year 2024, we continue to expect the Group’s adjusted revenue1 to be broadly in line with 2023."

Now for one... lets hypothetically say revenue is in line with 2023... then effectively that's a drop anyway because of the elevated levels of inflation but staying level is overly ambitious imo.

They're pinning too much on the cost reductions side imo and that's because whilst costs may well be reducing their contract win rates and the values of contracts being won are both simultaneously falling too... it's a tragically punishing combination.

I think the recovery will take much longer and I think that'll become obvious in the next couple of updates. I'm sure many have faith in AH but... to turn this around in 2024 he'll have to turn water into wine and I just don't see that happening what with the context of the wider macroeconomic challenges directly colliding with his turnaround vision.

Agree travesties - That importance is because the services industries sector accounts for 80-81% of the entire UK economy, so it has to be the sector BoE prioritises.

The capital is not eroding away. It's been strategically invested in 5G and FTTP. As the capital expenditure on those rollout programs slows down BT will have much less flowing out from it's coffers... simultaneously the pickup in sales of 5G and FTTP services will accelerate as the demand for data services is insatiable.

BT will be able to reap the rewards from the wise investment it's made in the core infrastructure.

VirSteele - I don't understand your point here. Are you critiquing me for having sold TUI? Or are you critiquing me for investing in BT? - Really not getting what you're trying to say. As for talk of biting ears off... Just plain weird!

Oh I'm not knocking your strategy Pokerchips - I'm sure it works well for you and I did similar when I had my TUI investment but for me personally right now I don't want to sell, try to buy back only to find it's shot upwards. I will buy on dips but I don't want to miss out on what I think will be a very lucrative rise!

Fair play, if gaming the dips works out for you then I wish you the best of luck - I'm being greedy here, buying whenever I'm able to, growing my total holdings and dropping zero. "Take what you can, give nothing back!"

Precisely why I've not dropped a single share at all - my thoughts were that playing the turbulence could leave me missing out on the big rises when occur and I want pure profits off this because all the data says this stock is going to be a top performer this year - All IMO - DYOR

Well for me another tranche at 128p is an annual ROI of 6.25% just from the dividends alone - So by year end, once the BoE have trimmed the interest rate, this stock will be performing very well indeed!

Some shorts still open... and I just added some more - It matters not as I'm long hold on this anyhow. Whole market is down today, airliners especially doing badly it seems so the drop looks to be market wide imo. SP will easily recover. DYOR

Lovely theory CraigJD... However, it's complete and utter nonsense. I've repeatedly declared my interest. I had been observing CPI with a view of making an investment, I also considered buying more BT (I already had holdings) and I considered a few other stocks but... in the end I purchased more BT tranches (I'm still buying more). I'm still considering CPI, I've not 100% ruled it out but I must say it's not currently looking promising.

Expatwelsh - I think the MS RNS updates the position quantities where shares which were out on loan out to shorters have been handed back to MS. Plus perhaps MS did some purchasing of it's own as well? As their overall holdings look to have increased.

Thanks Aubery for sharing that and yep, I agree with your assessment there. I remain giving consideration to adding CPI to my stocks at some point and yes, the turnaround will not happen overnight. Best of luck