Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

Interesting hike in the short positions... clearly times article offered little support. I think shorters will make a decent wedge on CPI, just cannot see how the next update can be anything better than a steadying of this heavily listing vessel...

Could CPI hit 10-12p post this next update? - I don't think there will be a rights issue here but the road to recovery will be longer than many on here envisage imo.

Some interesting changes/shifts in data released by Nationwide Spending Report yesterday.

Essential Travel spending (amounts £) up 7% YoY (Apr 23-Apr 24) however down -3% MoM (Mar 24-Apr 24)

Non-essential Holidays & Airline Travel spending (amounts £) up 4% YoY (Apr 23-Apr 24) however down 1% MoM (Mar 24-Apr 24)

Source:

https://www.nationwidemediacentre.co.uk/news/spike-in-debt-repayments-as-costs-continue-to-hit-household-budgets

Wednesday - Capita is certainly going to deliver... some further falls in revenue and some more losses yet imo - I cannot see this turning around this year. At best AH can hope to slow the bleeding this summer.

Fca.org.uk says shorts currently at 1.64% (of course not including open positions beneath 0.5% threshold).

Yes fleccy, I did not cover 'Split purchase and business customers' as I think there is zero claim award for those customers. Yes, I massively oversimplified things for ease and thanks for posting your better explanation, much appreciated.

Dun48 stating: "Another pandemic tomorrow would reduce the value of SSP to zero."

Statistical likelihood of another global pandemic occurring on the trot is tiny... More debt purist nonsense as SSPG quite rightly borrowed during Covid lean times just as many others did too. Post Covid SSPG strategically took on new debts to fund an investment strategy, a wise move when a market is clearly growing in size because it allows the business to net increased revenues and profits to service the debts. Whereas not borrowing when a market is growing would mean competitors benefit more so comparatively.

Imo SSPG made the right move but we shall see as the next sets of results land as proof is in the results!

Interesting read on the weather patterns there Mike as that should certainly help ensure there's not a destructive season of wildfires this summer ahead. Cheers for sharing.

"Labour waiting in the wings to exact carnage on anything that looks like it makes a profit" - HAHAHA, what a ridiculous comment... More nonsense from the Cameron/May/Boris/Truss/Sunak backing vandals.

For transparency my wife is invested here but I am not... Market looks to be punishing SSPG for having taken out high levels of debt used to fund significant investment + expansion but imo SSPG clearly has huge potential. Revenue growth in latest results was monster (yes, supported by high food inflation here in UK and slightly less so but still high globally) and that should easily continue into subsequent sets of results, even with softening inflation, so this will aid SSPG with financing the debts.

The business is profitable and whilst there might be macroeconomic issues UK runs into it helps that SSPG earns income elsewhere globally in $ and EUR, as once converted back into what should be a falling £ later on this year the decisions the board made on making big global investments should pay off rather nicely.

Other positives, the tie ups with Greggs - a frantically busy summer travel season ahead (all airlines have reported record growth in load factors, with only O'leary of Ryanair having expressed softer pricing (may turn out to be yet more codswallop, he's known for it!).

So what are the risks?...

Rights Issue? - Seems v.unlikely such extreme action will happen - yep, debts are very big, but revenues are huge and should easily permit debt servicing.

Small Divi? - Expect lots of articles trying to push the SP down, some investors will move to take advantage of larger divi's elsewhere. Bonds also currently offering better reliable income too but later this year, as interest rates fall globally, the gap will reduce and may co-inside with bumper results for SSPG, a small divi hike would be a good move by the board imo.

Direction for the SP?...

I think in the near term it may yet soften further but potentially it's a great time to buy up more stock and net ample rewards later on, as hotly anticipated bumper results land into the company coffers. Some brokers rate SSPG very favourably but others are only lukewarm. I view it reaching ~275-295p by calendar year end.

DYOR - All in my opinion.

Looking at the ofcom docs, articles shared on here and considering the wider landscape of other similarly natured class action cases... imo I think the conclusion will be around 20-50% max of what is being claimed for several reasons.

1. BT implemented voluntary £7 price reduction, compensating majority of customer as pricing then pegged to RPI with no uplift in 2018-19 - BT's defence would be this net benefitted many people (2019-2021 they used a 2.5% uplift but that was below market rate which broadly was around 3.9%)

2. The reduced uplifts will have continued benefitting many customers long after 2021 as no extra uplifts were later applied.

3. The voluntary scheme of course did not benefit any customers who passed (generally older ppl have fixed landline only service) - BT may claim it cannot remedy that so could offer a large charitable donation perhaps as a way of 'putting things right'?

4. Defence also likely to cover comms/adverts it would no doubt have sent out encouraging switching to best value services.

5. The high investment in infrastructure might also be cited as a line of defence i.e. all customers benefitting from that extra resilience of the network.

All in my opinion and it looks like BT went a fair distance to right the wrong with the voluntary scheme so therefore I think the claim award will zone in on quantifying where that voluntary scheme did not help some of the customers save in light of the prior overcharging. DYOR.

TalkinboutWillis - No thank you... the instability TUI has added into the mix here with the delisting, plus lack of divi, addition of currency conversion charges and huge expansion in volume of shares available means for me I think there's better value to be found out there elsewhere on the market. I accept others may well be entirely happy with what's happening with TUI stock, it's just not for me right now.

Hold for gold imo! I've held some back so I can buy up some more stock on the dips which I expect to occur.

Pretty shocking this delisting nonsense might lead to some feeling very pressurised to sell up and then re-buy, with huge risk of SP fluctuations between the two transactions... the there's the added costs of the currency conversions to trade TUI on the Frankfurt stock exchange atop. Now okay, I accept there might be some advantages for the stock having just one listing over the costs of dual listing previously but the decision overall seems net negative for UK investors, especially right now and in immediate future.

I'm relived I got out when I did. I had been pondering buying back in but I won't be now as there's other investment opportunities which look to have better prospects imo.

Should BT drop to 1.14p I'll make some more buys... that's just above 7% ROI on the divi alone. BT will keep on growing even as the capex and rollout of 5G and FTTP slows because takeup at the initial point of rollout is around about 30% (from memory reading the results literature) meaning the other 70% capacity for services will fill up over time long after the initial installation of the infrastructure. BT has a bright future, demand for data services is only growing at an ever faster rate too.

Trisor - Well that's just plain incorrect as last time I checked I'm not Sir Starmer or one of his top team either... The few of you on here just look more ridiculous with each post you make.

CPI will continue to do badly these months ahead because UK economy is not supportive with it lacking real growth and the cuts AH is making can only stem the losses or at best level them out.

Things can only get better.

Trisor - Issue with poor distribution of wealth is the 1% hoard their lions share of monies, thereby it rots in accounts... meanwhile many others are starved of funds meaning they cannot take part properly in the economy.

4urelius - in case you had not realised it is the current Tory Government which has raised taxes to the highest they have been post 2nd world war... again your question jumps the gun and makes assumptions, which just makes you look rather uneducated... that's because I have no idea who you did or did not vote for.

4urelius - it's interesting how you interpret my comment as me having said 'governments create growth'. Governments are responsible for creating the supportive conditions for businesses and individuals and obviously they are the entities which create growth. I'd not realised with you that there was a need for me to state what is obvious to all but I suppose that's a reflection on your childlike state of mind and when you don't have things your way you throw rational thought out the window... huff... puff and slam the door on discussion like a stroppy teen... bit like TerryM1... doesn't like what they voted for so shouts accusations & insults to blame everyone else... takes no responsibility for his own actions... you're all similar in ways.

4urelius - You make less and less sense with each post you make... what does that even mean?

HHH81 - somewhat confusing as TerryM1 was the one who expressed upset about the high taxes and direction of UK Gov... they announced their plans to leave but seems they've not left 🤷‍♂️ - pointing that out is not bullying. I'm just merely expressing my confusion... as to why TerryM1 said they felt a particular way and were going to take an action as a result and yet puzzling as to why they have seemingly not followed through with the action they said they were taking...

TerryM1 - I thought you explained you were so sick of UK and high taxes (which you voted for) that you were leaving Terry? Still here it seems...