Member Info for sasa43

No point in 'jobbing backwards', hickster - the Kistos deal wouldn't have been much good, either, in hindsight...

We'll know how this year has turned out next Spring which should see eps / divd higher for 2023, all being well - sasa.

In the first para of my reply to you, sidi, re: HBR's previous results - sasa.

Hi sidi - Fair do's re: HBR's last results but they were 'politically driven', imv, given they've been the most outspoken critic of the Government's EPL/ WFT on the NS producers; if you look at the underlying figs, they're no where near the calamity the pre-tax outcome suggests - also, they're 50% overseas already...

Serica's only 'weakness', it seems, is that all production is domestic with a 50/50 oil & gas mix these days, as you'll know.

As for its stats, it paid out 23p divd last year (9p int/ 14p final) from their 65p eps, as you say, giving a 10.25% yield currently but with a full year contribution from the Tailwind acquisition this year (inc. Tailwind's tax losses) and SQZ's uneconomic 'hedges' falling away now, there's a decent possibility that they could earn 100p eps for 2023 with a further divd increase being announced; ergo, their prospective multiple at today's level might be down to 2.25 offering a well covered 11% yield -'cheap as chips', I'd say...

I agree there's a reasonable chance that an incoming Labour Govt. might confine their 'anti - fossil fuel' rhetoric to no more exploration licences being issued (many are being relinquished already by all accounts) to lessen the negative sentiment against domestic producers, so let's hope so, as you say - sasa.

Hi zacO_4 - not necessarily quality stocks in terms of size; more to reflect reliability of dividends and potential recovery once interest rate rises start to ease off.

Commodity stocks, like HBR and Serica, have fallen dramatically of late but should recover when credit tightening gives way, fairly soon, I'd suggest. Both are good producers, have strong balance sheets and ample cash, especially Serica with no debt - look at SQZ's performance over longer than your 12 months... sasa.

Hi Strummer - just seen your post...

Like you, Legals seem a 'safe port' in these troubled mkts; I've bought in here recently, too, as an offset to some AIM 'storms' of late, as well, so you're not alone! Their Boots pension fund deal the other day is a significant acquisition in this mkt and on just about every measure they're cheap, especially now, imv.

I try not to 'over think' these things - if you're after some stability for the time being, go for quality stocks offering reliable yields from steady businesses like HBR and SQZ, too (ideally, not having a direct consumer interface) where 8.5% and 10.5% yields are available and when interest rates start to fall, these should see increased demand; for the time being, anyway...

No advice, of course, just my general observations, en passant, as it were - sasa.

It, at least, brings an end to the long delay in getting something done to commercialise Anchois; have just upped my holding by 30% at this bargain basement level, fwiw - sasa.

CHAR's also been a worthwhile target for Serica, imv, too, fwiw, Flying F...

They have an awful lot of gas at the foot of Europe, apparently and in a business friendly Jurisdiction as you say - they're just short of the stuff all but a few O&G Cos need to develop their finds - hard cash - which Serica's throwing off all the time. AP has a lot of 'skin in the game' here which might be problematic but in today's conditions, that's 'King' more than ever...

I'm sure the Moroccan Govt would welcome anything to see this brought to fruition, asap - a 50% share of CHAR's 75% interest would surely be a 'win / win' for all concerned after all this time; that's my, albeit biased, take on this one, being a holder here, too - sasa.

Agreed, upomega - whilst an overseas deal is what most holders hope for, these small domestic 'add ons' help to replenish the reserves which is something, I guess, notwithstanding the Labour threat next year.

Meanwhile, the costly 'hedges' are falling away, the oil exposure today is clearly a 'plus' and with a solid 10% + yield prevailing, the value argument here remains compelling, imv - sasa.

I know how the controlling families benefit from the 'fund of funds' arrangement, LOTM - 13, having followed Oceans for yonks both directly and via Hansa...

My critique was sarcastic; I'd be less cynical if there was a preponderance of growth vehicles in there, rather than a bunch of 'hedge funds' hitherto, which would have performed much better, as you say - sasa.

Yep, the port ops. continue to make good progress whereas the hotchpotch of collective investments continues to languish.

Why this unrelated multifarious portfolio is still retained defeats me, tbh - if a sale of the shipping business is finally agreed, one has to wonder what we'll be left with? Better to sell the 'baggage' than the fundamental towage activities, surely?

Notwithstanding this gripe, however, it's certainly encouraging that the aggregate asset value remains double the current sp; certainly appealing, pending further developments - sasa.

Yep, agreed, TDT - every crumb of encouragement is welcomed in this uncertain mkt environment.

With inflation turning down now / interest rate rises likely 'topping out', commodities should begin to regain their appeal to advantage and foster AV's forthcoming partnering news; hopefully, the prospective 'game changer' we're all waiting for - sasa.

About Serica's uninspiring management, post the hugely successful BKR deal, it must surely be worth awaiting this year's finals before anything else?

They could earn, perhaps, around 100p ps for 2023 and with, say, a 2p increase in the final divd to 16p ps, making for 25p ps overall, the shs would sell on an earnings multiple of around 2.2 x at todays price to yield over 11% and if interest rates are on their way down by next April, well...

I've posted what they need to do asap to counter the Labour threat, imv, if they get in and we might yet see such realism take hold in good time to obviate the ex - growth image now prevailing but in the meantime the prospective stats take some beating, one has to say! - sasa.

But the crucial event to galvanise the sp is whether the long outstanding court case rules in our favour, of course. This is the major 'game changer' us long suffering LTHs are all hoping for...

It's gotta be fairly close now, hasn't it? - sasa.

Yep, that's how they're probably regarding this, NewK with the remaining tax losses available - until the nest falls out of the tree, that is... sasa

Yeah but, it's all very well pursuing these 'short term payback' deals - Serica needs to pay more attention to the longer term opportunities outside of the NS, imv, where the Labour vultures are circling if they get in next time.

'Repair the roof when the sun's shining', as the saying goes - sasa.

'No news is good news?' Let's hope so, TDT... sasa.

Sure, a Labour Govt 'can afford it' NewK - they'll issue a raft of medium / long dated gilts like they did in nationalising the Steel Co's in the 70's by kicking the liability well down the road for yonks; that's a 'given' in my book.

Shareholders will just have to 'lump it' in winding up with the opposite of what they invested in - too bad!

I'd say Serica has 12 months max. to 'get out from under' from here by urgently buying an overseas asset, moving from AIM and seeking a quote on NASDAQ - they now have the profit / divd paying record to do that, especially after this years finals are in, which should again be impressive.

These will be released next April and after another decent divd hike (hopefully) and one or both of the above necessities having been met, holders will then have a good opportunity to decide whether to quit or stay; HBR are in a similar position, too, although they're already 'half way there' with their existing overseas interests...

That's my take on this emerging threat to our investment, anyway, fwiw - sasa.

Thanks for relaying this, surprised, although they've underestimated the current yield again.

Following the increased interim (9p v 8p) the yield is 9.5% on yesterdays closing price, if the final is merely maintained at 14p ps - there must be a good chance they'll increase this, too, upon the F/Y outcome to, perhaps, 16p ps to make for a nice round 25p ps for 2023.

In that case, the yield would be a tasty 10% + and much safer than many other undertakings offering such a double digit income return in this anxious investment climate - sasa.

Hi Phoenixy - the XD date was 7th September, the day before the B/C date as Kokomo posted, to be entitled to it, if that helps - sasa.

Next Wednesday, btw (9.6208p) which is handy - sasa.