Member Info for sasa43

Okay, we soldier on, then, at best hoping that Serica will finally wake up and get involved in something meaningful overseas before an even worse Govt. gains office. GLA of us - sasa.

I thought you'd sold up and moved on from this one, upomega, given your growing disenchantment with the outlook for Serica which, admittedly, is shared by many of us on here, including yours truly - sasa.

Echo that, Wilthew - I've been banging on about that, too, along with the 12.5% yield as things stand.

Trouble is the present management are uninspiring, nay, deemed to be lacking in dynamism and ceding much too much to Mercuria, vis a vis the Tailwind deal, especially with the 25% + voting power they now have.

Sentiment is crucial where AIM shs are concerned and one can only hope that an overseas acquisition to change that might yet be announced before the next election; the present Govt. is inept enough with their 70% total tax rate on domestic upstream O&G companies - sasa.

Agreed Alavib but there's no denying this ops. update is at best mediocre / disappointing, bearing in mind where we've come from under a plodding CEO performance over the past year or two and it's as well changes are now afoot and more imaginative leadership beckons, one hopes!

With the sp having fallen heavily today, I guess we're now in the 'capitulation phase' which often prompts a swift rally soon afterwards - certainly the present stats (13% yield and 3 x p/e on last years figs) discount a helluva lot at this level, so no need to panic; just contain your frustration for now if you can? - sasa.

Agreed, chinch - the transformational BKR deal was all of ACW's making and, perhaps, the only misjudgment was bringing back MF to run the much enlarged group, culminating in the Tailwind stranglehold we're in now.

Still, Serica can hardly become a 'dog of a company', ex MF, given our financial clout today - more likely the possibility of appointing a more imaginative leader to get us overseas orientated at long last with a bit of luck; that's my / our hope, anyway - sasa.

Hi NewK / Mommur - AA's possible return to the fray would be ironic, to say the least! - sasa.

Interesting, IG - on what occasion was this may I ask? - sasa.

I make the current yield 11.25%, fwiw - possibly pros. 12% on a modest hike to 25p ps annual, cum April - just accentuates amazement all the more! - sasa.

Hi LOTM - thanks for this which I would have probably missed. Having waded through much of it (a normal summarised version would have been easier to follow, tbh) but overall, I agree the Nos look quite good to me, too.

The outcome of the 'review' of the port ops / possible offers for this business, remains the main support of the sp at present, I guess, which we all await with interest. Presumably any deal will be around the present NAV of £14 ps odd for it and if so, how will the proceeds be utilised?

A return of capital and / or a special 'one off' dividend or tipping much of it into OWIL with a smaller distribution to shareholders if an agreement is reached? Given the family control, the 'Hedge Funds' portfolio could be liberally infused with much of the cash and then we'd wind up with a quasi investment fund to run on with...

Any thoughts on that? - sasa.

Hi NewK - yep, Mercuria remains the 'Achilles heel' here, unfortunately, as most LTHs agree, I think...

It would be nice to think that Serica's acquisition rationale might now have changed, post Tailwind, given MF's recent reiteration that they're genuinely 'still looking for an overseas involvement' rather than any ultimate cash stripping exercise, per se...

That would be very well received by s/holders if it transpired but he seems wedded to only operating on his 'home turf', unfortunately, which blunts the best chance of gainfully using our strong balance sheet / new RBL facility, etc., I fear.

Our very low mkt rating of a pros p/e of 3 or less / yield of 11% odd rather says it all, sad to say. The difference between good / imaginative management and ineffectual leadership, as I said the other day, remains stark here, unfortunately... sasa.

More likely, Mitch is gearing up to buy some NS production from HBR - he seems only able to consider such short pay off deals and LC would be a willing seller to further reduce their domestic involvement, I'm sure - sasa.

Agreed, rylidan - Andrew Bailey was also 'asleep at the wheel' when he ran the FCA prior to becoming BoE Governor (failing to step in to investigate / enforce regulation of several scandals back then and clearly he and most of his members of the MPC forgot to consider 'fiscal drag' when they raised rates so rapidly, after initially stating that the early rise in inflation was 'merely transitory' and nothing to worry about.

They seem to be unable to grasp, even now, that fiscal changes in monetary policy take nine months or more to filter through the economy to show their effect; incompetence in both directions it seems. The Fed's recent record isn't much better, either, on this front, tbh but, at least, the US economy has been much healthier than ours, so easier to absorb the influences of ignoring the 'fiscal drag' effect for them - sasa.

Well, I hope so, too, shakeypremis, re: the possibility of an attractive overseas acquisition in 2024.

With the 2023 results now ruled off (which should conclude another good year for us) and suddenly raising a decent sum for M&A purposes plus the bulging cash on deposit, there's every chance Mitch is poised to do something pretty soon.

Hopefully, it's something inspirational like HBR's recent news (although unlikely to be quite such a coup, of course) as long as it's away from the undesirable NS for a change. Can a 'leopard ever change its spots', though?

That's the $64k question here; if not, the 'same old, same old' will leave us in the doldrums, I fear and if Starmer gets in, I think I'll finally move on and tip the lot into more HBR and be done with it - sasa.

"It's much better to be invested in a company having strong management presiding over weak assets than one with weak management presiding over robust assets"...

We now have the best of both worlds here: strong management presiding over truly robust assets with transformational potential to really galvanise the sp going forward, so entirely agree, Alex T, with your view.

As an aside, I just hope that Serica embarks upon the same route, being heavily invested in both, fwiw - sasa.

Happy Christmas to you, too, Jimmy and much appreciate your insightful posts on this one, with a prosperous New Year for all of us on here coming soon - sasa.

You can say that again, NewK!

LC has shown them the way and with the recent upping of Serica's debt / RBL facilities, Mitch must have something in mind now and it's gotta be overseas to emulate HBR's dynamism for a change; not as an RTO necessarily but just away from more NS involvement - that's too risky an investment area today as things stand, thanks to our inept Govt pandering to the electorate at any cost - sasa.

Agreed, TD2 - 'the AISC is a bit disappointing' but in the present climate of many low commodity prices, not too bad overall, I guess.

Still no update on the plethora of unsolicited offers being worked through by Barclays; perhaps many have been withdrawn in such downbeat conditions generally but these should change once interest rates fall to stimulate demand again.

A successful outcome from BW will help, too, given the Copper contribution where prices remain robust and provide yet another tech metal to Andrada's armoury. All in all, there seems much to play for here in 2024 and beyond...

Happy Christmas to one and all, too - sasa.

For this 'gearing up' to presage a decent overseas acquisition attempt at last? Certainly hope so... sasa.

Generally agree with your synopsis on the Serica / Tailwind outcome as things now stand, surprised...

I was one, amongst many on here, who voted against the Mercuria involvement, mainly because of the near 30% vote blocking threat which remains ominous but so far, in retrospect, the various commercial advantages you've cited makes for a better balanced operation / boosts the EV, etc., which has been fortunate in the event.

All Serica needs to do now is acquire something worthwhile overseas to offset the total reliance on production from the NS and that should give the sp a real boost, given how cheap this is statistically right now... But will they? That's the $64k question in my book - hope springs... - sasa.

Yeah but with our cash, Terry, if memory serves...sasa.