Member Info for Santos1

Another excellent find, thank you Mogger. The comments from all the professionals on the thread confirm that the Sea Lion production team are absolutely top quality. We are in good hands.

Imo the disappointing fall following FID can be explained by the well known old stock market adage 'it is better to travel than arrive'. It is a common and typically temporary phenomenon. As we approach first oil I expect investors ( both long term holders and new investors) will start focusing increasingly on the present value of future cash flows and compare that with the market share price.

Exciting times ahead !

Sorry for the typo- I meant future cash flows not future cash lows, obviously

Personally I wont be moving out unless the fundamentals change, and they haven't changed. Since you can rarely (or never) get the timing right ( and anyone who claims otherwise invariably has not disclosed their full trading record) there isn't much point in trying to trade a volatile AIM stock like RKH. e,g traders who now think the stock is range-bound and that it is a 'slam dunk' to buy at 70p and sell at 75p - or short at 75p and cover the short at 70p - will most likely get their fingers burnt, sooner or later. The longer it stays 'range-bound' the more likely it will do something unexpected. In the background the per share present value of future cash lows is slowly but steadily rising and it makes sense for long term investors to stay put and take advantage of the DCF mechanism working in their favour. I don' t see a steady rise, more the occasional jump, with sideways movements and occasional drops to shake out weak holders. But £ 1.50-2.00 is entirely possible in the next 2 years and that is my expectation.

Sorry if this is a cliche but my personal experience tells me that its better to sit tight, don't check the share price every day, and don't trade in and out during the period between FID and first oil.

Thanks Mogger, another great find. A cheerful start to the New Year. I wonder what the principles will be 'to underpin the proposed sovereign wealth fund'. The Norwegian Pension Fund Global , also known as the Oil fund, was established in 1990 and as of June 2025 stood at over US$ 1.9 trillion, equivalent to US$ 340,000 per Norwegian citizen ( Wiki). The UK didn't set up a wealth fund for North Sea receipts, preferring welfare spending and tax cuts. Maybe for Falkland Islanders there will be a combination of oil fund for pensions , welfare spending and tax cuts.

Anyone thinking of emigrating? And/ or stay put and look forward to many future returns from RKH ? The latter for me.

'US have sorted Venezuela'.

This is highly unlikely. There was an interesting article in the FT 9 January entitled ' Gangs, goons and guerrillas pose threat to US plans for Venezuela'. It discussed gun-toting para-militaries terrifying civilians in the cities, military officers ruling their patches as personal fiefdoms, and Colombian terrorists running drugs and gold along the borders. None of these groups answers to acting president Delcy Rodriquez. And the military is polarised, poorly trained and heavily involved in crime- and thus 'highly unlikely ' to be an effective or willing US partner in securing the country, according to analysts.

Doesn't sound like much is going to change anytime soon.

We like going to the local town cafe around 4pm of a winter's afternoon. They charge around £3 for two toasted crumpets with butter.

If the oil price goes up, and stays up by first oil, then my share price expectations will obviously be rising considerably.

Superritch- personally I would not be surprised if RKH is closer to £1. 50 by first oil in two years time, which beats my expectations for most of the more volatile stocks in my portfolio.

Looked at objectively, the cash raise is not a negative, however some people may perceive it, because it opens the door for RKH to participate in a major new oil province. The value of the company has been substantially increased. If you are a long term holder there is not much point worrying about short term price movements. The fundamentals haven't changed, and until they do, sit tight and accumulate in dribs and drabs if there is further share price weakness. That would be the advice I would be giving clients if I still worked in the market.

Rolf- You obviously have no idea how incredibly boring it is for everyone to have to read your insulting posts. Why don't you give it a rest this year.

Rolf- Your suggestion that a share always falls to its theoretical ex-rights price ( TERP) is bunkum. Your short stay in the equities market probably didn't allow you many opportunities to see what can happen when the market takes a positive view of a share issue. Your suggestion that I don't know about arbitrage strategies or the difference between the short, medium and long term is more patronising bunkum.

Rolf- you say I have ' glossed over market dynamics' as if that term is some fancy word representing some supposed law of the market. In fact ' market dynamics' is nothing more than a hold-all term which refers to possible factors which might influence investor behaviour/ sentiment. There is no iron rule decreeing that a share price will fall towards the price at which new shares are issued at a discount and any suggestion to the contrary is simply bunkum. We would all be multi- millionaires if share price movements were that easy to predict. Share prices in fact often rise when new shares are issued because the market perceives the share issue to be positive. With RKH we are still likely going through a post-FID ' better to travel than arrive' phase when investors are taking profits and new buyers are coming in to take out investors who aren't in for the long term. If there are more sellers than buyers at the moment it presents buying opportunities for longer term investors. Shares never go up in a straight line. On a two year view the overall trend is upwards, imo. As you say, the fundamentals will come to the fore, sooner or later.

Furthermore, what quality of arbitrage strategy is there for traders in this situation ? Firstly they would have had to be on the books on the record date. So they have been on risk since then. Not an ideal position to be in if you are a day trader. And the percentage of private shareholders selling their existing holdings at market to fund the OO take-up is unknown- many will be putting in new cash, because they want to increase their shareholding. And If investors subscribe for more than their entitlement they may be scaled back. If they were looking to increase their shareholding they may therefore have to buy at market. On top of all these uncertainties, it's actually a very small share placing. None of this sounds to me like predictable ' market dynamics' on which a trader could base a meaningful strategy. But I admit I am not a trader - I think it's a mug's game.

If the 'market dynamics' and 'value distribution' were predictable, as you seem to think, then all traders would be multi- millionaires. The facts are that the very great majority of traders lose money.

The point is that there is no theoretical reason per se why the share price should fall to the OO price just because new shares are being issued. . The value of the company has not been diluted- it has been substantially increased. We now each own a smaller percentage of a bigger pie. If there are more sellers than buyers at the moment due to an 'arbitrage' effect, that's going to be short term. There will be all sorts of reasons why the share price will zig zag up and down between now and first oil but the investment case for long term holders ( such as myself) is that the general trend will be upwards.

Trying to trade in and out is a mug's game for amateur traders, imo. It is next to impossible to get the timing right. Best to put the shares in a drawer and stop checking the price every day.

Divi- only Argentina calls the Falkland islands the Malvinas Islands- can you please call them by their correct name? Thanks.

Divi- it would be appreciated if you could stop signing yourself off with 'DYOR' given that you do minimal or no research yourself !

Divi says ' When your posts are civilised I will be happy to reply to you in future' .

That's a classic way to avoid dealing with posts that challenge you. There is nothing uncivilised about pointing out that you have misinformed this chatroom on factual matters that you could easily have checked before posting.

Divi- you haven't bothered to read my comments. Typically, you have tried to shift the conversation onto another topic. I was referring to your deliberate disinformation ( or let's be generous- your ignorant misinformation) regarding the amount owed by RKH to FIG, and the amount of the pre-FID loan from Navitas.