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Croftoriginal2- actually that's not right. The share price rises in Phase 4 BEFORE cash flow arrives. Here is a brief summary of the theory ( btw it isn't rocket science, but it was first identified as a credible investment theory by Pierre Lassonde ) :

Phase 1-concept phase- share price stagnant

Phase 2-Discovery. Share price rockets.

Phase 3. Feasibility studies, often for years. Share prices dips significantly.

Phase 4. Development and construction phase. Once finance is secured and investment begins, risk decreases progressively and share price begins a secondary more sustained climb as the project approaches first oil, often exceeding previous highs ( that the phase RKH is now in) .

Phase 5. First oil starts, cash flow starts . Share price may dip at this stage ( i.e. it's better to travel than arrive).

Pierre Lassonde was a renowned Canadian mining investor in junior exploration stocks, becoming eventually president of Newmont Mining in the late 1990s. He was Chair of the World Gold Council. A mining legend in Canada. A generous philanthropist.

In case you are wondering, the Lassonde curve investment theory has a great track record and although originally designed for mining exploration stocks, it has been successfully applied to oil exploration stocks, as both have a similar life cycle.

Why don't you research it and find out?

Croftoriginal2- can I respectfully suggest that you research the Lassonde curve theory to see what it actually says, before knocking it? Also if you have a moment why not check out who the theory is named after, and his track record. Anyway, its a useful tool and it has served me personally very well in the past.

LOL

Got any experience doing the accounting for a sovereign wealth fund ?

Typically the longest period in the Lassonde Curve is the post -discovery phase during which feasibility studies are carried out, and the share prices falls. We are now in the early stages of a two year development phase towards first oil. The theory says that this is typically a period during which the share price rises and might exceed previous highs, barring any unexpected major setbacks etc. This is usually also the period in which fund managers in the sector who follow the theory look to get exposure to mining and oil exploration stocks. The theory has a good track record so any knockers on this board might want to keep that in mind.

Thank you R1234 for finding the comment in Hebrew at 33 minutes that 'there are enquiries from significant international companies that are considering entering the project. The partnership will consider bringing a strategic partner into the project that could contribute to igniting the next strategic stages of development'.

Am I right in thinking this is the first solid confirmation we have had that 'significant international companies' are in the wings? I don't see why this would be mentioned at an investor's conference unless there have been serious indications of interest and talks with one or more parties are fairly well advanced.

P.s. he also highlighted their 'top tier contractor base'.

MuchaboutMoney- Thanks for pointing out that Ian Ramsay starts talking at 16 minutes - I have just listened to it. I completely agree with your very positive comments. Everyone should listen to it. Industry types will pick up things I missed. A few things that stood out for me were ( and apologies if you are already familiar with them ) - he already has a team of 86 persons in London for Sea Lion, and a core team who have ' worked together on many successful projects' . He describes them as ' a top tier team with the track record and ability of a major'. They will commence drilling 'at the end of this year/ beginning of next year' and are 'on track for first oil March 2028' . They are benefitting from significant investment pre-fid with long leads secured. Production will start at 55,000 bopd for 2 -3 years, rising to 150,000 bopd with a larger FPSO ( 'we are now in discussion for a larger facility' ), and then 200,000 bopd. He says there is 3.5bn bbls oil recoverable and that it is a world class basin. There are 39 certified prospects to date and another 35 being firmed up. The 22 wells drilled to date have an 86% success rate which is 'a good indication of prospectivity'. There is potential for 'three hubs'. There is also 'multiple gas potential- we are moving forward on that'. There is also 'significant exploration upside'.

All extremely positive.

Happy- If oil prices were to be as high in two years time as they are now- or higher- we would likely then be well into in a new phase of industrial growth for equipment and any supply constraints would probably have eased by then, or be easing. And anyway in those circumstances personally I wouldn't mind having to wait 6-9 months longer if there were still supply constraints at that time affecting Sea Lion. But if Trump's war calculations are correct, then oil prices could be coming back down within a few months. Either way your forecast that Sea Lion is 'scuppered' is ludicrous. No doubt you are back trading on the short side, to recoup your earlier losses.

Divvy/ market dope etc etc says ' I don't have much exposure to Falkands....will be back heavily prior to any major news......first oil will be in 2029-30' . I suggest that investors should focus on Navitas's recent statement in the 10 Dec FID announcement that Sea Lion first oil is planned for 2028, and on Ian Ramsay's industry track record and his statements to the industry press about Navitas's high motivation to deliver Sea Lion on time, rather than on divvy's confident - but ignorant- opinion.

William Hague is making the point in the Times today that the G7 plan to release oil reserves will help for now , but there will be a very high price to pay if the Strait of Hormuz is not kept free of Iranian anti-ship missiles, drones and mines. He says only the US Navy can do this. To keep oil tankers reasonably safe will require a reconfigured naval force , with many more destroyers and frigates , operating closer to the shore and away from their aircraft carriers. Britain's defences are so weakened that even the minesweepers we used to keep in Bahrein have been withdrawn. The economic challenge for Trump is that rocketing oil and gas prices could lead to higher inflation, higher interest rates, lower growth globally, including in the US.

As for the even more difficult political challenge- securing regime change- Hague points out that even in Gaza today, a pile of rubble, Hamas is still in charge, appointing governors and levying taxes. So if Trump shares Netanyahu's hopes for regime change in Iran, that will depend on his readiness to send arms to opposition groups, insert special forces and intervene in local battles.

Doesn't sound as if these challenges are going be solved anytime soon.

Thanks P777. The other new power is for the Navitas partnership management viz ' to sell oil assets after improving and implementing them rather than holding them as income producing assets for long periods'. This suggests that the management will be looking to prove up the value of its Sea Lion and related assets sooner rather than later to ensure it receives top dollar when and if it decides to sell. This new approach can only be very positive for RKH imo.

' You cant be making price forecasts based on scenarios like there might be a war at some point. Thats not analysis , thats guessing' .

Risk analysts routinely run simulations of high impact low probability scenarios. In other words, it is analysis, even if you don't rate it. I'm making a general point- I didn't read the JP Morgan research.

Thanks for that reminder, Croftoriginal2- Charlie Munger and Warren Buffet's 's advice is hugely relevant to RKH.

I thought you had bailed out long ago. Or maybe i am confusing you with one of your alternative identities. Please don't bother to come back. You have never contributed anything worth reading. Go and troll some other chatroom !

Divi- having incorrectly stated that the rig hasn't been contracted you then try to say you meant something else when your error is pointed out. If you must post disinformation would you mind doing it somewhere else?

A joint US/ Israeli attack.....even if fighting is brief ( big assumption) there will be a heightened risk premium that would probably keep prices volatile for a long time.

Thanks Mogger. Sidley are a v impressive firm of Houston lawyers with offices all over the world, including London. They represented the unnamed ' lead arranger' of the Sea Lion financing- am I right in saying we don't yet know who the lead arranger is? Judging from the impressive list of transactions Sidley has been involved in (e.g. check out the long list of financing transactions in the energy sector listed under the lead partner on this financing- Mahalia Doughty) it could be any one of a number of major banks.

Nikb- no need to explain. You bring back memories of how stressful it was in the stock market whenever activity dropped off. Nothing going on at work is always far more stressful than when things are busy. I am grateful to be retired !

I read your posts with great interest. Thanks for taking the time to write them. If you are right rkh will be an even better investment than it is already.