Member Info for Santos1

Thanks BB. There seems to be mixed opinions about how vulnerable Iran's oilfields might be to a prolonged shut-in. Scott Bessent certainly seemed to be hinting a few days ago that they were uniquely fragile. No doubt we will learn more in coming weeks. On another topic, I was reading an interesting piece by a Washington think tank today to the effect that the strategy known in Israel as ' Mowing the Grass' viz dealing with troublesome enemies on a periodic basis by taking down their war capabilities when they are deemed to have replenished their military stocks, rather than trying to come to a long term negotiated agreement , won't work for Trump if that is what he is planning for his exit ramp. This is because Iran has the capability to attack gulf states and mine the strait indefinitely, and a negotiated agreement will be necessary.

Thanks Jimmy. As I understand it (and I am not in the industry, so have no idea if it's correct or not ) , Iranian's giant oil fields are complex carbonate reservoirs with high water drive from aquifers. Water breakthrough can be rapid if the equilibrium is disturbed. Shut-ins for a few months could result in rapid water breakthroughs and potential stranding of hundreds of millions of bbls of recoverable oil. Unlike with sandstone reservoirs where water movement is relatively slow and predictable. Extensive water encroachment in these fragile oilfields would be a major problem for Iran's production, and start-up after prolonged shut-ins would be extremely expensive and uncertain.

Is it true or not that Kharg storage has or will shortly hit capacity and that well head shut-ins then become inevitable, leading inevitably to serious permanent damage due to water -coning, gas cap formation, and paraffin deposition? Scott Bessant seems to think so. If true, will Iran's economy collapse entirely, IRG thugs can't be paid and general chaos breaks out ? Answers on a PC please.

BB3- Can I add my pennyworth to say hot tips are welcome ( to me anyway) particularly when in such brief format - thank you for sharing.

' current market turbulence is likely to delay anyone buying into RKH or anything else'.

Most fund managers wouldn't tend to go much above 5-10% in cash- they are being paid to hold equities. Hedge funds looking for absolute rather than relative returns would be more likely to go deeper into cash in times of market turbulence. Long only funds are more likely to do some rotation/ re-weighting. After years of underweighting, the oil and gas sector may see more interest going forward, who knows.

Listened earlier today to a podcast by Tom Tugendhat MP who is closely following the Iran situation. He wouldn't be surprised if the US bombing kicks off again sooner than some expect e.g. tomorrow (words to that effect, anyway). Flagged up jet fuel shortages in a few weeks time but studiously kept off the subject of possible future petrol shortages on the forecourt. Not something responsible MPs would consider talking about, I would think.

I agree with you BB- and with think tanks like the International Institute for Strategic Studies which says it is clear that this war will have 'a long tail throwing the Middle East into a new era of conflict'. Plus Iran frequently puts out a narrative around the duty to avenge historical 'humiliations'. There is no chance of a change of regime without a full scale land invasion, which isn't going to happen. I can't see shipowners and insurers being willing to put assets at risk in the Strait of Hormuz for years and years to come, whatever steps are taken by the international community to 'ensure safe passage'. The red sea route doesn't exactly look like a safe bet either. All you need is a cheaply made home made drone to wreak havoc, no matter how many warships you put there.

No, I am not close to the PR pack ! Nor ever was. The low conviction rate relates to the extreme legal difficulty of getting evidence 'beyond reasonable doubt' but as I say, the threat of investigation alone, certainly to people working in the financial services industry, is definitely a massive deterrent, whatever you may say. Outside the financial services industry, If you control a listed company or work for one and engage in insider dealing you would have to be pretty stupid, as they are probably among the easier cases to identify.

Even though the conviction rate is low there are a large number of FCA investigations ongoing at any one time. That's devastating for the people involved and a big deterrent. The average length of an investigation is well over three years. Legal costs would be huge.

Your personal attacks on all and sundry behind the cloak of anonymity removed any credibility you may have had a long time ago. That's the ultimate in tedious comments.

' The only certain way to make money on the stock exchange is to have inside information'. I think that's an urban myth. It's more likely to land you with a big fine or worse. And no-one can be certain how markets will react when news breaks. E.g. Look at the common stock market adage ' it's better to travel than arrive'. And if its info about a merger or acquisition, those deals often fall through.

Hi Landman, to answer your question I don't recognise the name of the author or know who (if anybody) he works for - I was just agreeing with specific points made in the article viz. that Asian buyers will diversify supplies and that gulf states will increasingly bypass the Strait of Hormuz. That seems a given, imo.

No doubt old plans for new pipelines are being dusted off right now. I don't know how long it takes to lay new pipelines over 1,000 miles or more but several years at the minimum I would guess. No doubt things could be speeded up if large numbers of sub- contractors are employed.

Is it really Israeli propaganda to suggest that Asian buyers will diversify where they get their oil from , and that gulf states will increase east-west pipeline capacity to avoid the Strait of Hormuz ? Sounds more like straightforward common sense to me.

Divvy etc- last time I think you were short or recommending people to be short. Now you seem to be long. Maybe the endless switching around and the unverifiable trades etc might be of more interest on a platform for traders ?

Thanks Mogger. Good to see FIG has made contact with the International Forum of Sovereign Wealth funds with a view to joining it. Other members include Kuwait Investment Authority and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority.

.....we don't know how long the talks with 'significant international companies' have been going on, or will go on, but if we come in one morning and find an announcement about a new partner, personally I would expect the RKH share price to open higher (gap up, in the parlance).

The statement at the 19 March Navitas Investors Conference that there are enquiries from ' significant international companies' that are considering entering the project', followed by 'The partnership will consider bringing a strategic partner into the project that could contribute to igniting the next strategic stages of development' ; taken with the new powers the Navitas partnership gave itself on March 4 'to sell oil assets after improving them and implementing them rather than holding them as income producing assets'; plus the brief reference to Isobel at the investor's conference; all this suggests to me that the new ' significant international company' to be chosen will be one who can best prove up asap other assets than Sea Lion - so that any sale by Navitas of its oil assets will fetch top dollar. If that's correct, we will surely benefit from that approach.

P.s. such a pity there isnt a sweetings down in the sticks where we live now

Yes, in theory every discovery in the basin could have a similar life cycle to Sea Lion. When there are three hubs operating at once - as foreshadowed by Navitas recently- then the theory won't be relevant by that time and RKH will be a large relatively 'boring' oil producer valued on its dividend yield and/or commodity prices, assuming it hasn't been taken over by then.

Don't knock Sweetings. It used to be a great place to drop into once a week at 11.30am for a quick half dozen oysters and a small glass of white wine.