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Happy/ Garbled/ DYORIMHO etc etc - have you ever once retracted a dumb comment when challenged on it?

I know you don' t like to engage so I will answer for you: ' No, it is easier to throw out an insult'.

You are a very sad person. IMHO.

Happy says ' Ain't no-one signing off on the finance package in December'.

You have very obviously never worked in a bank !

Happy- if you think its a ' mongrel share' why are on earth are you holding any ( assuming you are ) ?? You definitely will have something at least to celebrate by year end- winner of my nomination for the most tiresome poster of 2025. You won't have won by much, but I think you are going to pip my other choice to the post.

I don't know if it will be on Monday but I do know that if it is, those ' in the know' will not be buying today. Ever heard of insider dealing?

Hi Boboil- I was replying to the earlier thread with the above subject matter , not your one...

Great find, thank you Mogger. I see from the Notes on Speakers that Professor Alexander Kemp, who will be addressing the Falkland Islands Economic Forum in April, is Professor of Petroleum Economics at Aberdeen Uni and Director of the Aberdeen Centre for Research in Energy Economics and Finance . The Notes say that he ' will be able to offer insights into the rapid transformation of his country 's economy and the lessons that the Falkland Islands can learn in anticipation of the development of the Sea Lion prospect ' He previously worked for Shell and has been a consultant to various bodies on petroleum contracts and legislation, including the World Bank, the UN and the European Commission and various governemnts . He is also the author of ' The Official History North Sea Oil and Gas' which was published in two volumes in 2012.

Personally I wont be around in 30 years time to read the ' Official History of Falkand Islands Oil and Gas ' but with any luck I will be around for the first 5-10 chapters worth of news flow!

It's exciting to be this close to the starting gun. As mentioned yesterday, according to Lassonde theory, FID should mark the start of a 2 year period as we approach first production during which the theory predicts a strong upward re-rating in the share price. Hopefully not long to wait now for FID.

Hi Ralph, no I wasn't referring to the Gartner tool for assessing new technology in the workplace, even if the graph looks kind of similar - stay focused !

Exactly LTT, we have been through a deep valley of despair- exactly as predicted on the Lassonde Curve theory. Now we are at, or close to, the bottom ie we are at the financing/FID/ construction stage. We should now get a major re-rating during the next period before production, according to his theory. Anyone is free to reject it but bear in mind that it has a great track record.

Pierre Lassonde pointed out that the best time to buy with the least risk is during the financing and construction stage because reserves and capex are fully disclosed and a good management team can bring it online on time and within budget. He also pointed out that the market undervalues assets before production. Sea Lion meets those criteria. He also said that world class assets in safe jurisdictions gave added confidence to his theory. UK Gov is committed to defending the Falklands ( whatever Happy is trying to imply), and the many discoveries to date indisputably make this resource a world class asset. As a highly prospective new oil province, we can expect many more discoveries over the next 30 years.

We are close to the bottom of the Lassonde Curve . The financing is in place and FID by year end is clearly now a very strong possibility.

Exactly Croftoriginal2, you have expressed it more clearly than me. Lassonde Curve theory indeed predicts a major re-rating during the period between FID and production. I spent several years as a institutional stockbroker on a desk covering mining and oil explorers and saw the process many times.

Just to be clear I am not ruling out the possibility of some sharp upward movements as the re-pricing process unfolds during the period between FID and first oil. It is not possible to time them with any great certainty but sharp movements are not inconsistent with the Lassonde Curve model for exploration stocks moving towards production.

And yet again Happy/Garbled repeats the lie that HMG approval is required for the project. His version this time is that the approval will be sought and given 'in secret'.

Can I suggest that you write to the Foreign Office with your half-baked conspiracy theories and see if they can be bothered to reply, rather than posting them here?

As usual Happy / Garbled makes a confident assertion that doesn't stand up to scrutiny. He claims that .....' in large part FID is priced in. Whether this is true will only finally be known when FID is announced'.

In one sense FID isn't priced in because many potential investors at the moment think the same way as the leading mag for UK investors - Investors Chronicle- i.e. RKH is a sell because there have been many false dawns already - that's assuming they have even heard of RKH. ( Few have).

In another sense FID isn't priced in when you compare the DCF of Sealion Phase 1 with the current share price ( never mind later Sea Lion phases and the other nearby discoveries that will be tied in ).

Which of these possible meanings of 'priced in' are you referring to, Happy? And why do you think that either of these pricing anomalies would be resolved in a short time period? A far more likely scenario is that on FID the stock will remain in an upward trend on the way to first oil, with zig zags and sideway movements for periods on the way, but nevertheless in an upward trend. The Lassonde Curve is a better model than your crude assumptions.

I have the 13 Nov Investor's Chronicle write-up which is as follows, in full :

' Rockhopper shares have risen more than 500% over the last 12 months, albeit the market valuation remains far adrift of the company's peak in September 2010.

What has buoyed sentiment towards the stock? Rockhopper's oil and gas interests centre on the North Falkland basin via the Sea Lion prospect. It lies at a relatively shallow depth for the region and Rockhopper and its drilling partners have invested millions to 'prove-up' the resource. Last November, an independent assessment of the basin upgraded estimates of recoverable oil resources, meaning Rockhopper lifted its potential extraction estimate by 71% to 532 mm barrels.

The company recently completed a $ 115mm ( £88m) placing, along with a conditional placing worth $25m, and an open offer for up to £7m , which are to be held in escrow pending a final investment decision for the Sea Lion Phase 1 development.

Unfortunately there have been any number of false dawns associated with the area , so holders would be well advised to use the price surge to sell down. Sell. MR '

My comment- no mention of Navitas, or the company's percentage interest, or of other discoveries, or why the placing was made . Imo the article is good evidence that the possibility of imminent FID is not priced into the current share price.

Happy- anyone who disagrees with you ' has a high opinion of themselves'. You of course do not have a high opinion of yourself. ( Are you Rolf under another name ??)

If the government says to the UN that Falkland Islanders are free to pursue their economic interests, but in reality the project is dependent on UK government approval , then the government would be lying to the UN.

Admit that you are alleging that the UK Government is lying. I'm sure no-one in the government will take offence. They have heard it all before.

Happy- you say you are bipolar which presumably explains why you consider that FID is priced in at the same time that you doubt whether the project will go ahead.

BTW- can you please confirm once and for all that you have dropped your claim that the UK gov is lying when it says that Falkland Islanders are free to pursue their economic interests. I am very bored of reading your constant repetition of that particular piece of disinformation !

Yes Rolf , I do happen to know the difference between an undergraduate degree and a post -graduate degree and and am the proud possessor of one of each.

Black stuff- I see your earlier question has already been answered by Croftoriginal2. As Thoulness explained, the 'Red Herring' tactic involves shifting attention away from the original issue to a new, irrelevant or tangentially related topic, thereby avoiding a difficult point. I think that sums up Rolf's approach to argument exactly, together with his tactic of 'Ad Hominem' personal attacks. No self-respecting Oxford graduate would use such tactics, imo.

Just been reading recent posts. Recently I referred to Happy's constant incorrect refrain that the UK gov must approve the Sea Lion project as an example of the ' proof by assertion' fallacy so entertainingly described by Robert Thoulness in his classic book about dishonest ways to win arguments. This involves repeatedly stating a proposition regardless of contradiction or the presentation of contrary evidence. Another classic example was seen recently on this site when Rolf was caught out understating the number of undergraduates at Oxford by a factor of about 4 times. Instead of holding up his hands and admitting a mistake, he launched what Thoulness calls the 'Ad Hominem ' argument, which is where an argument is rebutted by attacking the character of the person making it, rather than addressing the substance of the argument itself.

You don't need to read the book- just read the posts.

I see Happy/Garbled etc is back again with the same old guff that the UK government have to approve FID. No matter how many times the UK Gov says that Falkland Islanders are free in international law to pursue their own economic interests and to determine their political future, Happy/Garbled knows best no matter what the evidence is. It brings to mind a very entertaining book called ' Straight and Crooked Thinking' by Robert Thoulness , a Cambridge psychologist, which describes and analyses 38 dishonest ways to win an argument . No. 21 in the list is called 'Argument by Repetition'. This involves repeatedly restating the same proposition regardless of contradiction or the presentation of contrary evidence until the opposition is worn down and stops engaging, allowing the proponent to assert their point as fact due to the lack of opposition.

Now Happy adds a further piece of disinformation viz that 'with the government fully stretched on budget issues there is little chance of any traction this year'.

Fact Check: the UK budget has nothing whatsoever to do with FID timing.