Member Info for Santos1

Divi/ garbled's etc reason for his year end prediction of 59p is that he is hoping to close out loss- making short positions which, as I recall, he has told us average 63p.

His opinion that 'everything looks priced in' reveals his continuing unwillingness/inability to do any research.

Thanks Mogger. Great find. Very positive news.

' i am very rarely bored by anyone but he or she genuinely bores me'

Your ill-researched disinformation bores me more

P.s. Happy' s suggestion that Israel would veto the FID of the Sealion project as a tit for tat for the UK recognising Palestine is another classic example of disinformation . In terms of sheer stupidity it is on a par with his previous suggestion that the UK government is lying when it says that the Falkland islanders are free to pursue their own economic interests. In case Happy is not aware of it, Israel is a parliamentary democracy with a rule of law and free elections. The state regulates the sale of military hardware in the national interest ( as do we) but there are no other international business restrictions imposed on Israeli companies. It has a highly developed free market capitalist economy, with the second largest number of start-up companies in the world after the US. More than 400 multi-national corporates have research facilities in Israel. It has extensive overseas business interests and is regarded as a safe reliable country to do business with. It is not a tin pot dictatorship telling companies who to deal with and who not to deal with, depending on the latest whims of those in power.

" Will Israel veto FID, that the question we should all ask ourselves'

Will pigs grow wings and fly ? We could ask ourselves that one as well.

Divi ( or garbled, happy, market-dealer etc etc whoever you are) hints that a comment by the son of Netanyahu that he recognises Malvinas as part of Argentina might in some way impact FID. Another piece of disinformation to further whatever the hidden agenda is. Is anyone here old enough to remember Randolph Churchill ? ( Me neither) . He frequently made comments that embarrassed his father. Only the Divis of that time paid any attention to him. And do you really think that Netanyahu would suddenly recognise Argentina's sovereignty over the Falklands in a tit-for-tat for the UK recognising Palestine ? Or that he would do the same to the many other countries that have recognised Palestine, and are in territorial disputes of their own? Do you really think that is how diplomacy works ??? LOL

We can safely assume that the timing of the renewed Argentine sabre-rattling is no coincidence. The Argentine government will be well aware of the high likelihood that FID is imminent. When FID is announced certain sections of the Argentine press will throw their toys out of the pram. Milei can respond that he is continuing to press the issue at the UN .

The Foreign Office made a statement in June 2025 re-affirming the position in international law, so Starmer's position is absolutely clear and unambiguous. There will be no negotiations ever unless the Falkland Islanders vote for them.

There are lots of such disputes around the globe, dating back a very long time.

Indeed it's a non-issue.

I try not to look at the share price too often but can't help noticing what looks like a bullish pennant formation on the one year chart. Maybe it will need higher volume for a break upwards. Things do seem pretty quiet at the moment while we wait for further news, so I am not holding my breath for any immediate action.

Any technical analyst geeks out there with a view?

Divi- I addressed my post to Happy/Divi/Garbled as all three identities come across as the same person. But I shall make a note that you are a different person from the other two identities.

Happy/divi/garbled ( if you are the same person) - if you think calling out your confused ill-researched opinions for what they are means that I have a high opinion of myself, well, too bad, I shall be continuing to post

Your opinion that the UK government is lying when it says that FIG is free to determine its own economic future is a classic

' the project depends on Argentina power dynamics'

And pigs can fly

A state with limited recognition faces numerous diplomatic limitations including no access to IMF or World Bank funding eg the Turkish Republic of North Cyprus is dependent on Turkey for economic aid. Its rights and responsibilities under international law can be disputed by other nations.

This whole issue is off topic.

But that won't deter the usual suspects from giving us the 'benefit' of their opinion that somehow it is relevant to RKH

Sorry- there was a typo in my earlier post this morning: we are in 'Scenario A' - the capital raise is in order to hugely increase earnings per share from the Sealion Phase 1 project- not to bail the company out of a mess [ I used the word 'money' rather than 'company' ]. That is why I would not be surprised if the share price gets to 100p before FID.

'Whenever there is a share raise the price always drops to that level'.

No, the share price doesn' t always drop to that level . How a share price responds to a capital raise depends on whether the capital raise has been to raise money for a project that will transform the company and enable it to hugely increase earnings per share [Scenario A ] , or whether it has been to bail the money out of a mess [ Scenario B].

Many investors wouldn't buy a company in a Scenario B situation, even if the share price fell to the price of the capital raise.

If you think RKH is in a Scenario A situation , then the share price fair value depends on what you consider the company is worth at this stage pre-FID, taking into account the NPV of future cash flows. It does not depend on the price at which capital was raised ie 53p. That price was chosen by the management at the time that the terms of the capital raise were agreed because it was at a small discount to the then share price.

As a long term holder I firmly believe we are in a 'Scenario A' situation,.

My own long held view is that it would not surprise me if the share price goes through 100p pre-FID.

I also expect the share price to surpass previous highs at some point in the future as the new oil province opens .

Exciting times indeed !

I would like to add my welcome to all the experienced posters who are posting again.

There are exciting times ahead and we will need guidance from both newbies and old hands as the new oil province unfolds.

P.s. we do not know yet if his/her tenant also managed to buy back shares at a profit but no doubt will be informed

LOL

Yes, he would have sliced at the top and caught the bottom on the buy back. Meanwhile his tenant in the adjoining bed sit managed to offload 1m shares. Their address is Walter Mitty Road, Grimsby

This morning Divi/ Garbled ( or whatever his name is) said that it doesn't make any sense to him why the share price doesn't get back to 53p as there will be some shares placed at 53p ( I am paraphrasing his confused message). This is because he hasn't bothered to spend five minutes doing some basic research on the difference between share dilution from a capital raise and earnings per share ( eps) dilution.

If the company's prospective earnings remained the same after the capital raise, then indeed there would be earnings per share dilution and then you would expect the share price to fall. However the proceeds from the capital raise will be used to enable RKH to participate in hugely increased earnings/ hugely increased earnings per share as the new oil province opens up. In those circumstances the placement price is irrelevant to where the share price goes ( except to those who care that their tiny fraction of ownership has fallen a little further).

What determines the share price is prospective earnings per share and the price/ earnings multiple you wish to place on it, or alternatively your idea of what fair value should be based on NPV calculations, NOT what percentage of the company you own.

I continue to say that I would not be surprised if the share price goes through 100p before FID. Also that I expect previous highs to be exceeded at some point in the future as production unfolds. And yes, there will be continued share price volatilty but the momentum is upwards and you will never get your entry timing right. I expect volatiltiy to decrease when RKH starts paying dividends as earnings yield calculations will come into play.

This is why , if you believe this project is going ahead ( as do all long term holders including myself) , its best to buy and hold and put the blinkers on when there are corrections.

The fundamentals haven't changed.

Ignore the noise. Keep calm and carry on.

Divi claims to be holding both long and short positions simultaneously in RKH. This is not what hedge funds do. They go long on a stock they think is undervalued and go short of a DIFFERENT stock in the same sector that they believe is overvalued. (Pairs Trading) i.e they are trying to use their stock selection skills to identify winners and losers, and to capture their relative performance.

( Btw, a hedge fund would be unlikely to do pairs trading in small oil stocks as the circumstances of each of them are too diverse.)

Or they go long of a stock while shorting the sector to hedge against sector specific risks.

Think about it- if you have a long position and a short position of the same size simultaneously in the same stock then they cancel each other out. You might as well have sold the long position and saved the dealing costs of going short. If the long and short positions are not the same size , then you may slightly reduce your profits or slightly reduce your losses, but it's a fairly pointless exercise.

DIVI says ' there is still quite a lot of misunderstanding about how shorts work'.

Yes, indeed, you have demonstrated that today, imo

Assuming that you can even short small oil stocks on AIM, which I doubt.....if RKH stock is unborrowable , as we have heard today from a poster, then I don't see how a contract for differences could be written.