Member Info for Santos1

Just been wasting time reading Rolf Harris's disobliging comments to all and sundry. Most people who leave the City age 40 do so because they aren't performing or because people can't stand working with them. Wonder which it was. Let's just say I'm putting the ' I retired' claim into the 'unproved' category of comments rather than the 'definitely wrong' category of comments from this poster ... As for Happy's nonsensical opinion that two stocks in the same sector with different market caps haven't tracked each other point for point because of something to do with the commodity price, may I remind him that he said recently that he wouldn't post for at least three months....

Fantastic news! Well spotted Marunam2. And very useful to have that news ahead of Navitas results and ahead of FID for those looking to top up..

Thanks Gardie. The UK Defence Journal article points out that Milei accepted that Falkland Islanders have a right of self-determination and the right to pursue their economic interests.

That admission will be unhelpful to any future Argentine government trying to argue otherwise in international law courts.

Sorry to rake over the ashes but a certain poster/ poster under different names was recently ludicrously claiming that the UK government has to approve the Sea Lion project.

Even Milei recognises that the Falklander Islanders have the right in international law to develop their own resources !

P.s there is a typo in my last post- I was referring to Rolf's incorrect opinion that ' No share price chart is ever adjusted for share issues'

Rolf- you are trying to steer the conversation towards an irrelevant point and a personal attack when you have run out of valid arguments. Dunning-Kruger has zero relevance to your totally incorrect opinion that ' No stock is ever adjusted for share issues' . Dunning-Kruger is an investment cycle theory describing how novice traders misinterpret share chart patterns but eventually end up making more informed investment decisions with years of experience.

BTw I also remember taking exams in the City, if that's where you worked. I spent 30 years there, in equity markets. I'm hardly a ' novice trader', if that's what you are trying to imply. And by the way, being a long term investor in a stock like RKH has nothing to do with trading- I never trade.

Rolf- Adjusted share price charts DO adjust for dilution caused by rights issues. And rights issues ARE capital raises.

You can continue to deny the above until you are blue in the face but the facts are otherwise.

Anyway, I suggest that we agree to disagree, rather than going round in circles and boring everyone else in the process.

' No stock chart is ever adjusted for share issues ', according to Rolf.

Just to be clear, a rights issue involves issuing new shares. And adjusted share price charts ARE adjusted for rights issues. But unadjusted share price charts are not adjusted for rights issues.

Rolf also says: ' if you think a share price of under 5 or 6 quid is cheap , what are you waiting for' .

Would it be asking too much that you spend a few minutes checking what people have said before putting words in their mouths ? My long expressed opinion is that Sea lion Phase 1 NPV10 calculations around £ 1.25 looks to me to be fair value at FID. That NPV10 figure excludes later Sea lion phases, nearby tie-backs and other discoveries including the Isobel discovery which may be the same size or larger than Sea Lion. Whether it will reach 125p or not at FID is irrelevant to me as I expect it it will do so in the next 12 months or so. I have also said for the last year that I would not be surprised if 100p is reached before FID ( it got to 92p) and that previous highs will eventually be surpassed as the new oil province opens. I will be looking at adjusted rather than unadjusted previous highs.

Thanks JEBR and Croft for your thoughts. If JEBR is right then, as I understand you, the London Stock Exchange share price chart may not have been adjusted for RKH's large placements during the last 15 years nor for warrant issues. So we can't rely on it to compare apples with apples. Would that be a fair summary of your views?

Looking at market value, if we compare RKH's current market value today with the market value on 30 Sept 2010 then my calculations are:

1. No. of shares in issue on 30. 09.2010 = 174.1m ( according to 2010 interim report). Share price paid that day = £5.08. Therefore, market cap. that day = £884m.

2. No. of shares in issue on 02.10.2025 = 645m. Share price today = 0.75p. Therefore market cap. today = £484m.

Since 30.09.2010 Sea Lion's recoverable reserves have risen nearly four times and there have been further oil discoveries , including Isobel, thought to be the same size or larger than Sealion.

Is this a fair way to view the company? Any thoughts would be most welcome.

Rolf- can I suggest that before you post again that you do some basic research on share price charts and how they are adjusted for capital raises, stock splits and consolidations ?

P.s. and yes, share price charts are also adjusted for stock splits and consolidations

Thanks Croft. I have just posted a reply but it seems to have disappeared into the ether- possibly because I didn't fill in the subject box. Maybe it will appear on another thread.

What I was saying in that reply was:

1. I accept that someone paid 508p in late September 2010. The main point I was trying to make is that London Stock Exchange share price charts are adjusted for dilution resulting from capital raises, whether they are rights issues or placements. The adjusted high on the London Stock Exchange website is 462p.

2. I accept that share dilution adjustments may not be made by all data vendors for small share placements but I am sure you would agree that the major data vendors make adjustments for large placements.

3. There are no gaps on the London Stock Exchange share price charts for RKH so it is safe to assume that dilution adjustments have been made for all rights issues and major placements made by RKH in the last 15 years. Would you agree? The purpose of re-basing is so that investors can compare apples with apples.

4. When I referred to FID I meant that the new shares in the recent placement will only be issued when FID occurs. Hence they will not be listed before FID.

I hope that clarifies any misunderstandings...

Further to the email I just posted I was using the historical'MAX' chart for RKH on this site which shows that the dilution adjusted all time high for RKH was 508.43 on 24 September 2010.

However the London Stock Exchange official ' MAX' chart shows that the dilution adjusted all time high for RKH was 462.27 on 30 September 2010. I can't explain the discrepancy but there is not much difference between the two prices. The all time high was reached in a quick up and down spike which shows the potential volatility in 'small cap' companies such as RKH.

I fully expect all time highs for RKH to be surpassed in coming years as the new oil province unfolds, and I also expect continuing volatility along the way. That's the nature of E and P stocks listed on AIM. I expect volatility will quieten down to more normal levels when RKH starts paying dividends. Hopefully by then it will have moved to the main exchange.

Re Rolf's queries, the London Stock Exchange historical share price charts adjust automatically for capital raises such as rights issues and placements. The adjustment is made as soon as the new shares start trading. This is known as a 'dilution adjustment ' . It prevents unexplained gaps on charts and allows you to compare apples with apples.

So suppose a share had been trading for years at £20 and then there was a 2 for 1 rights issue. An adjusted chart would retroactively halve the historical price to £10 so that the chart history is shown on the same scale.

So if you look at the Stock Exchange chart for RKH you can see that the current price is 75p and that the all time high was £5.08 on 24 Sept 2010. You are indeed comparing apples with apples when you look at those two prices because the chart has been adjusted for all capital raises such as rights issues and placements that have taken place in the 15 years before today's date.

A further dilution adjustment to historical prices will be made at FID when the shares in the recent placement start trading.

' Speak to you next year '

Hopefully that means we will now have a three month respite from the constant stream of Divi disinformation and opinionated tripe.

Fingers crossed anyway.

Is that a better thread title?

' management has been paid mega wages for doing nothing '

Divi- Can I suggest ( yet again) that you do some research ( eg on what caused the delays and how management successfully turned round the situation ) before you post a load of tripe in your efforts to cover your short positions ?

If you think the 'main issue' is your ill-researched and ignorant opinions you are sadly mistaken

'someone was dumping rkh in the last two weeks and no institutional investors have bought new shares'

1. Has it ever occurred to you that there is a buyer on the other side of every trade ? That's why trades on the London Stock Exchange typically don't say whether its a 'buy' or a 'sell' trade

2. Volumes in Rkh have been low during the last two weeks

3. The share price is exactly the same as it was 2 weeks ago (in case you haven't noticed) so the 'dumping' you suppose has happened hasn't had any impact, has it?

4. You have no idea whatsoever whether the seller was selling all of its holding or just 5%

5. You have no idea whether or which institutions have or have not bought shares in the last two weeks, so don't pretend otherwise

I can't access the broker's note published today but based on the summary kindly provided by BB-h I have the following thoughts;

The Broker's 90p NPV calculation is :

1. based on Sealion alone and excludes tie-ins, discoveries further away, Isabel etc

2. uses an unusually high discount rate

3. a 'risked' calculation ie a pre-FID NPV valuation. FID will de-risk the valuation to a considerable extent and that should give a significant uplift to this 'fair value' calculation

Hi LTT- here are some results from asking basic Google AI the question about what happens on FID:

:" Yes, oil exploration companies typically get re-rated by brokers when they make a Final Investment Decision (FID) to start production, although the specific impact can vary..... A FID is a critical de-risking event that shifts a company's profile from speculative to operational, leading analysts to adjust their outlook, ratings and price targets..... This often happens with smaller exploration and production companies ( E&P) whose entire valuation can change with a single project.....price targets are almost always adjusted upwards to reflect the additional certainty and future earnings potential from the sanctioned project.....A significant FID can prompt new analysts to initiate coverage......The re-ratings and analyst contributions that follow a FID can attract new investors and a rally in the stock price especially if the project is large enough to move the needle on a global scale ....."