Member Info for Sageman

Tandmeister, I get the joke. However, whilst the U.K. is closed the share has been trading and we await news . Indeed we have just spotted news regarding CUDA. So actually not surprising for people to be checking in. XOP closed at 24p equivalent whilst U.K. markets are closed. Something to smile about over the weekend. GLA

Plato please forgive me but I have just read some of your posts. Are you aware that this site is for investors in LLoyds bank? I fail to spot anything about investing in LLoyds. When you speak about investment you say you lost 145k out of 150k with most of your investments going bust. It follows that you are bad at making investment choices and probably bad at other financial decisions too. I then read your posts and just sigh…good luck but please give it a rest!

Silly buttons where are you getting the information about the 49% being hedged please. Thanks

Tigra, as I said we now have a binary outcome either the gas flows in June or it doesn’t!

Ocelot the RNS says that 70% of production is now unhedged!

Please correct me if I am wrong but I believe that the 49% we have just purchased is all unhedged. This means instead of having to meet the hedged volume from 51% production we can meet it from full production. Assuming we get gas in June this substantially derisks us not hitting hedged volumes in the early days whilst we are tweaking. Similarly it means that the sidetrack will be more valuable in terms of early cashflow. Accordingly this is now binary if it flows,we get the sidetrack and gas remains elevated through 2023 the sp multi bags. If not…

James everything you say is true but then a miracle occurred - gas prices went through the roof so that despite complete and utter incompetence we can still win here. If we get gas and a successful sidetrack combined with elevated gas prices in 2023 the money will flood in and the sp will soar. Management will be the lucky beneficiaries of selling product at prices beyond all expectations. Personally I don’t care why the sp rises I just want the sp to rise.

Apologies but my last post was not for this board! We do oil not gas.

Unless I am seriously mistaken we will have 100% of the production and no increase in hedged volume. Thus the hedge poses less risk to us. If we get the sidetrack and gas remains elevated our finances will be swiftly transformed.

My take on the deal is that they have doubled up the risk reward here. We have increased our share of production and at a stroke our share of unhedged production. In some ways this derisks us and means that the sidetrack and gas prices remaining elevated have become more important. With gas over 300 through the winter and a successful sidetrack our coffers will be bursting come the spring - he who dares Rodney. Fingers crossed.

I said I bought with an 18 month timeframe and whilst I wish I bought cheaper like A who bought at 34 I expect to come out with good profit. Interesting in that he said that with a JV you can end up giving up 65% of a company for £100m and was most dismissive. So a company with a full value of £150m vs current mcap of £50m and he was dismissive! (= 62p share price). I am happy to hold and expect to see £1 plus. GLA

Stockbob why do you keep quoting Lucan? We can all see the current price of gas and even a 7 year old can see we not get anywhere near 7m in June. But this does not need ramping we just need 1st gas and the sidetrack and most here will make decent money. GLA. Ramping not required as the news over the next 4 months will do the heavy lifting.

When you hedge you forward sell at a fixed price. If oil falls below that price you win if it rises above it you lose in so far as the buyer on the other side of the deal has obtained oil at below market price. No one in their right mind would be party to a deal where they can only lose. So yes the hedging may be part of a loan agreement but via a 3rd party such that if the loan changes the hedging would remain. That is how it normally works albeit I have no visibility here.

COPL I agree with much you have said in your 9.33 post. Assuming we have the oil how will we monetarise it and at what cost in terms of time and dilution? I have never been convinced by the rampers £10 per share but simply believe that there is enough upside here to turn a decent profit. The risk reward ratio looks favourable and I have time on my side. As with 88e there will inevitably be a series of news related spikes creating exit opportunities. GLA

wow Jiddy 15%. I tend to have 90% in funds (mainly trackers - UK currently) then have circa 10% in single stocks with a max limit of 2% per share. The 2% limit is set from experience. It means I sleep at night, can be objective and patient and can still have some fun.

Agreed RBM - I am at my 2% portfolio limit for a single company share. Wish I had bought at 16p as opposed to 30p but there is nothing in the RNA to make me sell. I bought with an 18 month window. With oil at these levels, production increasing, debt being restructured and RS in the wings I believe my investment will come good. Some will trade, some will hold . Each to their own. GLA

The last time I contacted Cathy she said she was hoping to have the Ryder Scott report in time for May 16th announcements. That was back in April. Fingers crossed for good news.

Prior to the war we were 1.37 to $ vs 1.21 now. Oil is priced in $ as is our debt and balance sheet. Clearly where we are paying costs in local currency this is a win . But our Sp is priced in £ and our debt has increased in £. I am not sure that posters here have given thought to this in the context of our sp

I was looking at the sp recovery from its lows. We never discovered the potential buyer. I assumed they were Russian and would buy in roubles. The rouble tanked but has recovered strongly. If the deal is merely delayed as opposed to dead it helps to explain things.

I don’t think we can blame the BOD for Putin. We had a sale agreed at circa 7p. Wars don’t last forever and the mine remains a major strategic asset that will get built and used for EV’s. Frustrating to bottom drawer this but with patience I still expect to emerge with a profit but it could be a long wait. Glad it is just a small part of a diversified portfolio. GLA