Member Info for Sageman

I mention it because I post relatively seldom and it simply means that I can be objective. I am far more interested in global financial issues and asset allocation than COPL. In contrast others post like their lives depend on it and their posts reflect short termism and desperation. I want COPL to do well but can afford to take a long term view. A view that is seldom seen on this board. GLA

Having moved 50% of my portfolio to US equity trackers in mid July and with only 2% here I guess I am in a different position to the balls out brigade. I actually don’t give a fig about the traders etc. I am not prepared to invest more here, 2% is ample and the sp is falling. Never catch a falling knife. My time window is 18 months . The truth will out. GLA

360 the thread seems to have been deleted. In response to saying you had just bought expecting to double your money had replied that you had previously said 5p on 1st gas. I said if you want to double you would probably need to trade it.

360 he intends to trade it 10 times!

I get the feeling that many people here have Invested (Gambled!!) far too much expecting to get quick rich. The focus is the SP as opposed to the company and its prospects. I too wish I had bought lower and am underwater but I am unconcerned. I bought with an 18 month time horizon and this is only 2% of my portfolio. An SP is often driven by sentiment which by definition is irrational. Jiddy gives the excellent example of 88E. I believe that OIP on the US mainland can be extracted commercially. I like that Art is being honest about the glitches they are having. I like that he has procured the oil and will sort the RBL. He bought in at 35p. I have a lower B/E than him. My expectation is that at sometime over the next year or so production will increase and there will be a spike or spikes. I don't expect to make a loss here. GLA

Well in May GL said that first gas would be 1st June "or within hours of it." I don't think that the English language allows for me to sufficiently convey my thoughts at this time!

Tygra I hold Alba with B/E of 0.11. It should do ok. I just wish I hadn’t invested in Angus. Even a donkey should be able to make money when what they sell increases in value by a factor of 7. For me I lost faith when GL said in May that we would be producing on 1st June or within hours of it. I am now trapped like many others not wanting to cash in a loss astonished by the incompetence but hoping it comes good.

In the 20 plus years prior to 2021 gas was rarely above $50 per therm. That is why we hedged at $44. We have circa 10 years of gas. How long do you think it will be over $200 given that over time all things perform to their average? How long do you think that this war (the driver of current prices) will last? We have a limited time window of stratospheric prices. GL if you are watching….

Stockbob, normally a counter party would not renegotiate a hedge. But they don’t want to bankrupt Angus and just want the gas. Also they probably can’t store it. The price of gas is higher in January 2023. So simple question do you want gas supplied at 44 in August when you can sell it for x or gas in Jan supplied at 44 when you can sell it at x plus say 30%? The point is though whilst it papers overs GL’s incompetence it robs Peter to pay Paul. Had we got our proverbials in gear we would be selling that excess gas at x plus 30%.

It makes sense for Mercuria to roll over the hedge as our mcap is peanuts and they don’t want to produce gas. If we go bust they lose big time. Consider if you had a guaranteed price to buy stock for £1 and you had a buyer at £7 per unit. What you would want is the stock and to do everything you could to make sure the stock was delivered. If the supplier of the stock was a multi millionaire you could sue them for non delivery but if they were poor there would be no point. You would just want the stock.

Mott, it doesn’t always hold true but a big red flag for me is where management don’t invest. Look at SS at u Dog. He treats pi’s with contempt as a free cash machine. The sp is down over 95%. No sane person throws their own money in the bin. Things may not work out as expected, but that’s life. At least it shows Art really does believe. Time will tell but an sp is very often disconnected from fundamentals since sentiment applies and sentiment is by definition illogical. 2 of my investments Anglo American and Tullow oil have both risen recently by circa 20%. There was no reason for the fall and no reason for the rise. GLA

Weekends are a good time to re-read RNS’s as opposed to posters opinions. The RNS of 26/7 is well worth another read . What caught my eye was Art’s comment about in his 40 years of experience he has rarely seen such potential. He spent circa 250k of his own money buying shares in the mid 30’s earlier this year. That is a decent investment where he has put his money where his mouth is. I invested with an 18 month time horizon. FWIW I expect Art to deliver. There will be dilutions etc but if Ryder Scott step up and the RBL comes good this should reward us all handsomely. GLA

Manekman, you are either a paid ramper or completely delusional. We are on the hook to provide a shed load of gas for the next 3 years getting paid 44 with the seller picking up 300 plus. If we don’t provide the gas we are liable for the lost profit. We have no idea when we will produce gas but our liability has started. We know we will definitely need a sidetrack . The sidetrack has been delayed. GL missed the window pre hedge to sell which would have had a massive impact on our balance sheet. If the sidetrack fail we are sunk. This is the grim reality. I am not wetting my bed since I only have 2% of my portfolio here. I am however, disgusted by the lies and delays. Unless I sell at a loss I have no choice but to cross fingers and hold just like most other investors here.

Silver light forgive me but what was “planned” was gas several months ago! I hold hoping for gas and sidetrack and that hedge volume will be exceeded. I pray for a spike over my BE level like the majority of holders here. In which event I would exit rapidly.

Share flyer forgive me for asking but do you have a negative IQ. We are selling at 44 when the actual price is over 300. We have promised a guaranteed volume and thus far have produced nothing. The volumes promised increase due to what our creditors demanded. As long as we meet our obligations we receive 44 and the third party takes it and sells it at 300+. If we fail the net 256 is down to us. Everything we produce until the hedge is fulfilled gets 44. We need excess volume to benefit from gas prices. In the meantime we produce nothing…tick, tick

Manekman, I am no troll. I am investor who bought on the back of escalating gas prices and a management promising as late as May to be producing by 1st June "if not within hours of 1st June". Total lies and I am now tied in not wanting to take a loss just like many others here. A successful sidetrack can still rescue the situation but these are now desperate times, With gas prices escalating and no gas and no idea whether we can even achieve the hedge volume Angus is now ultra high risk and in danger of bankruptcy. We need gas and lots of it.

Just happy to see the sp grinding upwards. I am a LTH who believes that with the current poo even donkeys can make money. B/E of 27 and very happy. Todays profits from Shell and the bleating of the media made me smile broadly ( solely where TLW is concerned) albeit I feel very sorry for the poor souls struggling with their fuel bills. But no one gave TLW a handout in 2020!!!

SS aka Billy no shares the great diluter and destroyer of wealth strikes again. I sold out some while back but keep a watchful eye in the hope that something good will happen to buy back in and make my cash back. SS if you are reading you are despicable I will never forgive you for your “ train is leaving the station” ramp. He still doesn’t buy and regards shareholders as idiots who give him free money. I will buy when/if he makes a sizeable investment…

Office manager when oil hit 120+ the experts said it would hit 200. During Covid the price collapsed. Gas may stay elevated for a year perhaps 2 - but look at how long our hedge lasts. Why didn’t GL get pumping months ago before our hedge even started? We need the sidetrack to pump high levels of gas in excess of the hedge . Where is the sidetrack? Management should be pumping gas for all they are worth…..gas sits underground, time ticks…

Silver light many here are trapped having bought on the basis of due diligence and then watched GL completely screw it up. Had we produced by June ( as promised) and started the sidetrack we would be in a very different place. We have a limited time window of ultra high gas prices and we should be taking full advantage. Witness the recent grain deal in Ukraine. Things always change, all wars end and gas prices will normalise in the meantime our gas remains underground, our hedge goes unfulfilled and our sidetrack not started. This is a **** show rescued solely by a limited time window of stratospheric gas prices.