Member Info for Sageman

It is perfectly natural that people who over exposed themselves should be reducing their holdings at a 3 year high. There is nothing guaranteed here. I have sold 36% of my holding and will sell another 14% to get back to where I was before averaging down. SP still going up, more good news expected and it is better for selling to be spread out so very positive. I hope for a higher SP and cross my fingers. GLA

Beach hut I don't think so. Highest price in over 3 years. Lots of investors wanting to lock in some profit/reduce exposure. Sign of a healthy market. Too many over exposed people here so nice for them to be able to do some portfolio rebalancing. I originally intended to invest 1% of my portfolio and had to invest more to average down and ended up at circa 2%. Far more than I intended so happy to start to unwind that position. Others here were literally balls deep so I am glad for those of them who have been able to bank some profit and relax a little. All's well that ends well but I suspect that many are much wiser from the experience.

Two great days for ANGS holders. I sold 2 tranches into the close (15% of my holding). Shares that I had bought to average down with that have now done their job having themselves doubled in value. I suspect that a number of LTH's have done the same and will thus be far more relaxed making for a happier board and a better bank holiday for many here. You never know if its a spike or what is to follow so bring on next week when hopefully the sp will rise further on gas sale news. GLA

Thanks Penguins. I just found the details buried in an RNS. 70% of our production (conservatively estimated) from July 22 for 3 years at $43. I believe that since then the CPR increased our estimated reserves and the hope is that we get excess production from 2nd well and sidetrack. Hopefully that would allow us to hedge into higher rates for some of the excess. Its all about how much gas now.

Peterashbeck, good post. I looked at the Mcap = £46m. Then I did a back of an envelope calculation hedging 4m therms per month at $500 = $20m per month 3rd q of 2023. I am no fan of GL but if we can lock into these stratospheric prices once we have known gas flow and then again with sidetrack the revenue here will be enormous. I will leave it for others to extrapolate the potential SP in the above scenario. When what you are selling goes up in price by a factor of 10-20 and you have a fixed price business the impact on the bottom line is extraordinary. Lucky Lucan!

HITS am I right that we are hedged until summer 2023? Whilst this is currently an issue it follows that once we have stable production we could hedge through to mid 2024 and hedge again once we have sidetrack. This would lock in stellar prices and propel the SP. Imagine if we could guarantee a year of production locked in at circa $500 per therm.

Jiddy, I hear you but he is averaging down just like other investors having bought at far higher levels. At least he is putting his money where his mouth is - proper money, not just a token gesture.

The SP and the position on the ground at companies are rarely in sync due to sentiment and reporting. Irrespective of the sp the fact that the CEO is investing heavily is a very positive sign for LTH's.

Art has bought again and with serious money. He thought it was good value at 35p and has spent another 200k (approx). Compare and contrast with SS at UKOG who never invests. Art clearly believes that the company will do well, This is not a token gesture. No one just throws £200k of taxed money away.

Anton the SP is more driven by the futures market than the current spot price. We had oil at $130 with predictions of $200 by year end but recently oil has been under $90 but now back circa $100. What you can sell today is a small fraction of the oil you sell in a year so when expectations of future prices swing wildly (in this case downwards) the impact on the sp can be considerable. I hope this helps.

The best post I have read here in the last few weeks was to do with wax and the impact of de-waxing on production levels. The sp disappoints but at some point must reflect the situation on the ground. That point will not happen until we get RBL and start seeing the cashflow improve from increased production. GLA

Bottom feeder I agree with much of your post but not the conclusion. As HITS says we need gas and sidetrack and large gas volumes. If the above is achieved and then they can lock in high prices through 2023 and 2024 this could still come good. Not because of good management but solely due to pure dumb luck. Rescued by stratospheric gas prices.

Stockbob, as you say when we hedged at $44 they thought it was good. A deal has been done on grain and however unlikely it seems today a deal will be done on gas. If our current hedge was over $400 our SP would rocket once we have first gas due to the cash flow and impact on debt. Markets like certainty. Locking in current stratospheric prices would be brilliant once flow is known and sidetrack in place. No one here has mentioned it , which is why I have.

Once we have gas and sidetrack the risk is that the Gas prices fall rapidly (and they can). If I was running the company once I had the sidetrack I would hedge into 2024 to lock in the price (at $400 plus instead of our current paltry $44). The SP would soar and it would guarantee our success (assuming our production was stable). Angus could still multi bag in that scenario as it would clear debt swiftly and become a cash cow.

In June GL said that production would start on 1st July "or within hours of it". I increased my holding as a result. I am livid.
The one thing that could still make us lots of money is following 1st gas and sidetrack (so we know our production) is to hedge future production beyond the existing hedges so that we get to benefit from the current elevated futures prices (as opposed to the current $44 level). If we could lock into $300+ through into 2024 then wow. That is the thing here. Gas prices are so stratospheric that despite bewildering incompetence this could still multi bag.

I invested on the back of mine potential with an 18 month time horizon. I invested 2% of my portfolio. My investment is now less than 1% of my portfolio. I see Art unlocking the potential and the SP all over the place. I have invested enough and there is an old saying not to catch a falling knife. I could invest more as it is less than 2% now and the portfolio is at an all time high. For now though I just hold to a large extent ignoring the sp which makes little sense.

Not long ago oil was circa £130 and forecast to hit $200. Today it is $93. The big money on Angus was always to be made by selling off Gas in excess of hedge whilst prices are stratospheric. There is a limited time window be it 6 months or 2 years. That is why the incompetence of GL and his lies should make everyone's blood boil. We needed the gas in June when we were not hedged then the sidetrack running by October. Fighting in Ukraine in winter is a bad idea (ask Napoleon , lol) 50/50 for peace in November. Then what price gas ?

Roddy, you are right. I am beyond angry . GL and SS at UDOG are birds of a feather. Both guilty of lying to their shareholders ( SS with his “ the train is leaving the station”). Had GL told the truth I would not have increased my holdings and the same applies to others. When I invest I do so based on all the information. I looked at POG . The gamble was how much gas and the side track never did I suspect that there would be no gas on August 14th…

Napoleon and Hitler both discovered that fighting in that area of the world is difficult in winter. But Russian and Ukrainian generals already know that too. 50/50 that we see a peace deal October/November. What price gas thereafter? The failure of GL to produce during this period of stratospheric gas prices is unforgivable. GL if you are reading I think you are scum. Lies , lies and more lies. See you next Thursday Lucan.

The reality is even with dog shares they have spikes. With a dog the lows get lower and the spikes lower too. This will spike on sentiment or news flow so with patience most can sell out in a profit albeit without stellar gains. The stellar gains may happen but who knows. Many here seek a spike to sell some and trade lower thereafter. gLA