Member Info for Sageman

Don't worry I am sure that our apologist for failure AKA Push will explain it all and make us all feel both better and grateful, lol!

I had some corres from Cathy last night. She said that RNS was written by the FCA and they were responsible for the timing of the release. She said that COPL has not defaulted. That the weather in December in January caused the RNS. That funding is progressing as are dealings for both the RBL and the JV .
She said that everything state above has been fully disclosed other than that the FCA wrote the RNS and released it.

30 years ago a board member at a bank told me that they made their largest profits on current accounts due to paying no interest. Rates are rising and I have never forgotten what he said! GLA

I looked at a payslip for a 32 year old on 30k. For income over 17k his deductions were 20% income tax, 12% NI, 9% student loan and 5% auto enrolment. So 46% deductions with mortgage, food and a family. In contrast on income up to 50k an OAP pays 20%. So wrong . Then triple lock. Why? Politics!

Like many others I am astonished given Art’s interviews and purchases. I thank god that expensive lessons when I was younger mean that I never invest more than 2% of my portfolio in a single company. I am so sorry for the guy with 60% of his Sipp invested here. Tomorrow is a new day fingers crossed for better news…

Investors here would do well to check out Clifford talbot wholesale price of gas. Currently down over 75% from peak and showing large falls in the last month. It is why I am so angry about missed deadlines. It is also why the sp is struggling as the premium on top of the hedge falls on a daily basis (combined with sidetrack delays).

Rodders suggest you look at the RNS’s from 2021 and you will see precisely what I mean about delays and incompetence. The company themselves were saying how important it was to get producing to capture the high gas prices. You can read for yourself their promised timelines. The current sidetrack was targeted for q1 2022!

I topped up on Friday , just 500,000 at 1.28 to further bring down for my final exit. My view was always that we had a limited time window of stratospheric gas prices (check my posts). GL sadly missed it with wholesale prices now at 143 per therm and falling fast. He screwed up 1st gas and once again this latest drill is delayed. He is circa 1 year late with everything and the cost has been enormous. The next spike should allow a profitable exit but if GL worked for me I would have fired him for gross incompetence long ago.

I have not read the posts here just the title. Art if you are reading you should be ashamed of yourself. You committed to certain deadlines (read the RNS’s and watch the videos) and have not delivered. No RBL no JV. Shame on you. You have a duty to update us as to the delays. I am a LTH getting somewhat irritated by our CEO and his missed deadlines and dreadful communication.

I was trying to book holidays over the weekend and was amazed at how many were sold out. I did some research and bought ccl, ezj and Tui on Monday. Thus far a good decision. Strong holiday demand will be positive for the holiday sector. GLA

I think we will all have a better idea when we get the RNS on the 25th. My view is that we are ticking along and slowly recovering from the decimation caused by the plunge in the oil price in 2020. Some good operational news would help.

Tygra, undoubtedly there will be a spike/ spikes and profit taking. However, the spike will be sentiment driven so it is impossible to quantify. I can still see scenarios of sub 1p and north of 5p this year. I am sure that a number of people would happily cash in some of their holdings 3-3.5p short term .

Tygra, I agree from a LTH perspective you are spot on. GL has made a complete Horlicks of this and we’re it not for stratospheric gas prices we would be bust. His missed deadlines to 1st gas are indefensible. He wasn’t just a week out it was months. However, with the sidetrack in pay and the 2nd compressor we must look forward with fingers crossed. I always believed 5p was doable and still do. GLA

Empathise

I am a LTH having been here for 4-5 years and believe genuine long term holders have every right to vent from time to time. Those who bought in at 8, then 4, then 2 then 1 with b/e’s in the 4’s and above who invested what they could afford but don’t want to take a loss. They hold in hope having witnessed catastrophic incompetence only rescued by stratospheric gas prices. We watch missed deadlines ( well over 6 months late on 1st gas thus creating the issues with the hedges). We listen to the lies over the rolling over of the hedges. We have a very different outlook to the 2022 newbie who bought in under 1p. Me, I hold at an average of 2.2 having sold out 75% during the recent spike. I am in a comfortable position now but emphasise with others who just feel trapped.

Winner? This share yes. You ? Sadly not.

Fish, with due respect the JV with Exxon may never happen. However, Guerilla cited the requirements for a potential 100x. bagger. A fraction of that would make most investors here very happy. Like most investors here I dare to dream but I look at the bottom line and continually assess the risk. I continue to hold my maximum 2% portfolio weighting here, but wish I wasn’t so disciplined!! GLA

When I invest I look at both the upside and the downside. I said a while ago that the risk/reward ratio here was exceptional. Guerilla has painted the upside. He gave a potential mcap of £6bn. This would be circa a 100 bagger. So what is the downside? Remember we know the oil is there (independently verified) and the injected gas exceeds the value of the current mcap. A patient investor therefore has very little potential downside but up to 100x upside. Quite simply this is extraordinary.

Guerilla, your post was not lost on me. We have a £53m mcap. I have been investing for circa 40 years and have never seen a share with such potential. It ticks most boxes including the CEO investing 400k at circa 24p. A JV with Exxon could indeed see a 20x increase (or more). Using your example Exxon could easily get those 75 wells into production within 2 years. The next 3 months should be interesting - GLA

The NAV is to do with the value today of future oil. Thus if you had 1bn barrels of oil but it would take 100 years to extract the npv is low. If you could get it out in 1 year the value is huge. To a large extent this is why a JV with the right partner propels the sp. A small miner self funding the drilling extracts the oil slowly. In contrast Exxon could fund multiple wells. I hope this is useful