Member Info for Sageman

I have been closely watching the SP and the counter attack in Ukraine. Couldn't resist another million shares at 1.112 given the rise in gas.

I tend to agree with both PK and Les. Until a relatively short time ago my 20p B/E looked solid. I have reached my self imposed investment limit and thus can't invest more. I sit and wait hoping for the high pressure well makeovers to work, commercial production levels and a resultant JV on decent terms. The next 3 months will be pivotal IMHO so hopefully not long to wait. I believe we will get a binary result which will either be fantastic (with multi bags) or very poor (sp below 1p). I am happy to wait and see but understand why others with a large exposure are somewhat nervous. GLA

Last, the share has actually risen when the 1.8p payment is taken into account. They kept the money on account earning interest as long as they could.I wonder how much cash they have left

Spot 54 to 69 on the day….better.

Thanks Shouston, I had read that article already. The material point being that Wyoming is cold, our flow rate is impaired, we know waxing is a major issue but when Read COPL RNS’s they do not contain de-waxing specific information. The article you posted is really useful in that it shows a waxed up pipe so that you can see for yourself just how much the flow would be reduced.

Thanks Easy. I’ve read that not only can pipes be insulated but they can also be heated. I didn’t realise what a major issue waxing can be.

I am no oil expert but have been told that waxing (which blocks/restricts flow) is mainly a temperature issue. I see that we are using high pressure hoses but are they thermally insulted? If not why not? I would welcome any input on this from anyone with knowledge on this matter. Thanks.

BV , the difference is that Singhies posts every day with a consistent and transparent methodology.

BP, I have no issue with trading. There are just far too many persons on these boards who set themselves up as self appointed experts who then deliberately mislead. Thus they ramp when they are selling and post negatively when they are buying. People can trade all they want but why try to dupe others? You could say that if god had not wanted them to be fleeced he would not have made them sheep but its just not nice

BP , I understand that you told others to buy whilst you sold/traded. There is no honour in that.

IMHO people who try to mislead others for personal financial gain are scum. It used to be called fraud!!!

BP, forgive me but I find it sad that you would be so ashamed of what you had written you would want it deleted. In contrast I accept that I make honest errors and am happy to learn/say sorry etc. I think that the salient word here is "honest"!!!!

Thanks BP . So BP= Push!

I look at things more simply. 2000 BOPD = B/E (approx). Therefore at 5000 BOPD we make 3000x $80 = $240,000 per day = $87, 600,000 per year. Our current Mcap is 18m and we are circa 50m in debt. Lots of assumptions regarding output, B/E and oil price . What is not in doubt is that if this was sustainably achieved the SP would be many multiples of the current price. It follows that main focus must be to drive up production. It also follows that any potential JV terms would be better than what is likely currently on offer. All IMHO but currently non investable whilst 1000 to 1 consolidation is on the cards hence SP.

My earlier post was a reply to a suggestion that a buyout is imminent. I was simply saying that it is not currently attractive. Similarly Art is probably being offered unattractive terms on the JV. Hence the delay whilst he sorts out flows etc. I can think of few other positive reasons from a COPL shareholders perspective why the JV has not happened yet .

A buyout here may be 50% above current mcap. Not attractive. The issue is lack of maintenance to get CUDA cheap followed by bad weather. A JV partner wants a good deal and so does Art. Art needs to get production up, sort out flows and waxing. This will drive up sp and prove value. Then he can do the deal. I suspect at present any buyout or JV partner is taking the proverbial. All IMHO GLA

Excellent posts Gallder

FWIW gas prices have fallen circa 45% this year and just under 20% this month. They are nowhere near what was forecast . From our perspective that is pure profit lost. I am a LTH with a B/E of 2p. I am not stressing about weird markets and Shorters killing the sp. I expect gas to rise into the winter and with it our SP as long as GL doesn’t get us involved in a vanity project. 3-4p very doable next spring. GLA

Thanks HITS. I didn’t think my numbers were that far out. So 20-25m of debt. Had we been getting 400 per therm that would be chicken feed. At mid 50’s debt free status takes far longer to be paid off. As I said if you think that gas prices will rise this is a buy. However, with investment the trend is your friend and the trend is down with the fall in the last few months very substantial. This is why the sp has fallen but DYOR and Rusty stop being such a baby!

Rusty, if you can’t work out that you get in a lot less free cashflow selling mid 50’s than 200 then I feel sorry for you. Miners often have debt based on RBL at a fixed percentage ( or a fixed percentage over base) for a fixed term. It then gets repaid or rolled over. Similarly they will issue debt instruments, have overdrafts. I suggested that you find out the detail yourself and you couldn’t. Angus have not been transparent with precise details. I bet you were bullied at school….you want to argue for nothing .