Member Info for Sageman

I was liaising with Cathy some months back and she reminded me that not only did Art invest circa 400k at an average of circa 24p but he had previously invested. A 1000 to 1 consolidation makes this stock uninvestable at the moment. In shooting fellow investors in the foot he similarly damages himself. Art is either a genius about to pull off a fantastic coup with a blow the doors off JV or a delusional financially incontinent fool. I hope for the former but am beginning to fear that the latter is the case. This reminds me of that delusional idiot SS at UDOG (UKOG!) but SS never invested his own cash.

Sillybuttons , I too had to average down here and ended up with too high a holding (I should never have let a stock like this be 2% of my portfolio). I sold 75% of it such that this is now 0.5% of my portfolio at an average of precisely 2p. For me it is now a long term hold given the cashflow and I expect it to show me a profit in the next 12 months. I intend to let production settle and then perhaps increase it back to a 1% holding. From these levels with the side track a success I believe that the risk/reward ratio is pretty good for new investors. GLA

Y11 - FWIW I am not expecting a JV with Exxon…it was just to illustrate a point. Also I have actually averaged up having initially bought at 7p. The point is though that good news could land at any time . Tullow is less than 0.5% of my portfolio and I am very comfortable with it. GLA

No shares Patel I am sorry but you are delusional. You have won nothing. You are not invested and investing is about making money. If you buy low and sell at a profit then all good but for now ( assuming you are not shorting) you have made nothing. The point is that despite your crowing we could wake up tomorrow with the news of an Exxon JV and you would be left looking pretty silly. In contrast those who have averaged down will be smiling. FWIW being unattractively smug is not a good look!

Buy the rumour sell the fact or sell the rumour buy the fact. Looks like the hot money moved out today. We now have gas and side track and an SP under 1.5p. An sp deemed impossible a year ago in that scenario. Why? Missed deadlines, cost over runs and missing the biggest spike ever in gas prices. Personally I am fuming about GL's missed deadlines (read the RNS's from 18 months ago) but we are where we are. Hopefully sober reflection will allow the SP to now rise over the coming months as we pump gas and reduce debt. A spike in gas prices would help no end!

People need to consider if they are investing , trading or both. Investing is long term. Find a company with good management and good product ( in the case of a mine a solid resource ). Then sit back and wait for the commercial extraction. In contrast traders are looking to dip in and out on spikes and thus in search of news flow deadlines. Then there are investors who trade to lower their b/E etc. Sadly there are also gamblers who hear a rumour rush in and expect to multi bag next week having done zero research. I believe that we have far too many gamblers here…

I suggest that people read the RNS of 3rd April again. There is no need to ramp as everything is in the RNS. Spud in June and license for Heron imminent due to government fast tracking as a matter of "National importance." In a few months time current prices should look like bargain basement. GLA

My previous post refers. With any mining project you have x product. The NPV then depends on how fast you can extract it. Put simply £1 today is worth much more than £1 in 50 years time. Thus you may have a 100 year mine life if the extraction rate is 1 unit pa. Increase to 10 units pa and the mine life is 10 years but NPV is far higher. Imagine a JV with a £xbn partner who can immediately do all maintenance and do multiple drills with no budget constraints….now you see why the JV is the game changer. I hope this helps.

KNW, fingers crossed for you. People run numbers based on P/E’s etc as if this were a FTSE100 stock. The reality is that sentiment is the biggest single factor at this stage. A JV combined with a production uplift should see a big spike. The reason that a JV is huge is not just because of cash but massive increase in extraction rates.

FWIW, my 2% rule has been one of the best investment decisions I have ever made. Most investors learn the hard way and when I read these boards where people have piled in it reminds me of myself 30 years ago. It normally ends in pain. Luckily I was young but you see people doing it as they approach retirement…. But it’s their money.

Knw, The amount you invest is irrelevant it is more the percentage of your portfolio that counts. I never invest more than 2% in a single stock. If the portfolio is £20m that is 400k , £1m it’s 20k etc. If you invest less than 1% it isn’t really worthwhile but it can mean that a person with a large portfolio ends up making an investment that is sizeable and looks like madness. Always best to talk in terms of a percentage of a portfolio it is less divisive. For all we know your 290k could mean you are balls deep as opposed to being irritated by an affordable loss on a small part of your portfolio.

Pian - I suggest that you take a look at wholesale energy costs. Oil, Gas and electric. Things are about to get better! CSG just do one you shameless shorter. Company results are historic by definition what is happening today is real time. I have invested based on now. GLA and don’t let the intellectually derelict crew screw you over. This is a long term hold from here.

Cs - Let me enlighten you. Jan 2016 oil circa $36 a barrel. It then shot up and our sp fell. The reason for the subsequent fall was Covid. I only invested from earlier this year having personally witnessed the massive surge in bookings. The RI has trimmed the debt and cashflow and margin should both be positives. Also we are getting a tailwind from a weaker $ and weaker oil prices. DYOR and good luck all investors.

A client of mine dumped M&S in the early 90's having walked in the shop and finding nothing that she wanted to buy. She was aged 45 and middle class and reasoned that given she was in their target market , if they couldn't sell to her things were likely to be poor. She saved herself a lot of money! I have purchased 4 holidays this year with TUI and using the same logic bought stock. The travel sector is in post covid recovery mode. When I was trying to book often there was no availability/fully booked. Company accounts are historic, in contrast bookings are in real time to be reported on later. I remain positive about TUI especially now the burden has been reduced post right issue. GLA

Duster FWIW an institution would not normally touch a company with an mcap of under 50m as there would be no liquidity. The current buying is thus Pi's

I just bought 477190 to bring my average down. With the lawyers taking payment in shares the JV must be happening. Fingers crossed.

I have double the shares in Matad that I have in COPL. Matad B/E under 4p. COPL B/E 20p. I can't believe that Matad now has a higher SP. Unfortunately the amount invested in COPL was far higher and the 70% plus loss is sickening. I still believe in COPL but where is the RBL and where is the JV. Surely the lawyers wouldn't accept shares in payment if the JV was not happening? Surely Art wouldn't have bought 400k worth at circa 20p if he thought COPL was useless. Fingers crossed but hope draining.

The issue is that we have never been given details of the hedge and precisely how it operates. We have essentially sold the gas and need to deliver it. It could have been that we had sold it at a higher rate than current market value but it is the other way round. The 3rd party couldn’t give a flying fig about gas we may supply in future they just want the gas they have paid for by the day they paid for it.

No shares Patel , I am 50% up doh! I don’t need you to wish me luck to break even…

Looks like we have been invaded by busted todger. By definition not much use for anything, lol