Member Info for Sageman

Actually had he bought and the sp then risen sharply he may have been subject to regualatory scruitiny. If events play out as we hope it may indeed suit his purpose to have some short term weakness whilst also hurting the traders who he despises. GLA

I still take comfort that the person who knows more than anyone else recently bought over 600,000 shares at circa 35p. We don't know what we don't know but he knows more than we do. Would he have bought knowing he was about to do a placing or would he have waited? SS at UKOG never buys which should be a warning to all. Time will tell but I am not worried at this time just annoyed at the poor comms which will hopefully soon be addressed.

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Hits I don’t know why you bother. Stockbob is a paid ramper who repeats his posts and other rampers here refuse to accept the truth. The POG and the sidetrack are key variables. The numbers can be run using a spreadsheet to produce various outcomes. There is substantial upside here but risks too. If the production and POG were guaranteed the sp would already reflect that. Knowledge is power and your calculations and explanation of the variables is helpful for LTH. GLA

I think the clue to the drop was the sentence “ refinance COPL Credit facility” . The market has taken this to mean a rights issue or placing. However, the critical matter will be the timing. We have enough cash for now so can we get to CPR prior to the need for cash? Indeed would a JV post CPR provide the funds without a placing? The RNS raised more questions that it answered. I am disappointed with the fall but this was always an 18 month investment so I am not worried yet. But what dreadful comms by the company.

Hi Jiddy, just to say that I have read your posts on a number of boards over several years. They normally make good reading - respect and thank you

HITS , I have just run through your post from yesterday at 17.51. Actually a great post. Thank you. It is useful in that it summarises the hedges and you can then do your own calcs from it based on POG and volume. It goes to back to my post yesterday where I said I can think of scenarios where the sp could be 0.3p and others where it could be 15p. No wonder Angus are working 24/7 to get production as early as possible to optimise the May and June unhedged production.

On looking more closely the graph peaked at 800 in early March for a short time and has been no where near since. George should not have used this as a reference in the last few days when clearly a figure in the 200's would be more appropriate. Apologies - I am annoyed that I was misled and thanks for pointing it out.

I am looking at tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
The graph shows 280. The table to the right shows 5.5710 and the table beneath shows 5.5630. Since the graph does not show a collapse in the last 2 days since the Lucan video I assume he was referring to the table when he used 7.

HITS gas is currently 560.70! I have just been watching the live price ticker

H.I.S that is why production in May and especially June is crucial as it is all unhedged. If we sold 2 therms during that period at say 600p it would be transformational.

Much depends on the POG. George mentioned 700 in his interview. It is all over the place - currently circa 550. We need it to hold strong especially in June and through 2022 to quickly cut debt.

BVD, Lucan was our CEO when we stood at 0.425p so his leadership and knowledge of people in high places has historically been of little use where the SP is concerned. I am now solely looking forwards to first gas in May and praying prices remain elevated, especially in June when we are 100% unhedged. Fingers crossed for a wholly positive outcome for all.

Hi Jollifant, I am unsure that I deserve the compliment and I do not have access to the data room. The SP will depend on sentiment, when production starts, the side track, gas produced , the POG and how long it remains elevated. All of the above are unknowns. We similarly have Brockham to consider. I believe that we can all come up with scenario's where the SP would be 0.3p and where it would be 15p. Before the war started I felt 2-3 p but we have had much progress since and POG has soared so I feel that a figure north of there is merited. Perhaps others feel better placed to speculate. I hope this helps. GLA

Yanis we have all been on a journey with Angus and many LTH's are still hurting. I am delighted to see the SP rise and my posting history proves that. We have a 10 fold increase in POG papering over gross incompetence. The point is though that the past is irrelevant now as far as the future of the SP is concerned. If the external contractors get this connected up and producing gas in May it wouldn't matter if Donald Duck was leading the company as the sp will rocket on cash flow and debt repayment. GLA - enjoy the ride.

Sparrow, the due diligence that led him to buy at £1 was completely flawed in that the costs involved were many millions of £ over budget. Lucan did not make his own luck. He totally mismanaged the whole show with delays over a year and then by pure fluke a war arrived such that oil and gas prices have rocketed . Don't get me wrong . I am a LTH and cheering the sp up but our BOD are utterly incompetent .Selling product at many multiples of the expected sale price will enable them to recoup costs but no competent management team build miracles into their budgeting!

To be clear the management deserve zero credit if/when the SP rises. They are massively behind schedule, and the project is millions of pounds over budget. Their utter incompentence and resultant debt is being over ridden by a 10 fold increase in the selling price of gas. Without that we would all be staring at big losses. This will be a case of sheer dumb luck - lucky Lucan (as his dad was called). GLA

I just had a pleasant surprise. As a result of my latest buys my B/E is 2.55 as opposed to over 3p previously. Chances of profit from here are good IMHO. At one stage I was sitting on nearly an 80% loss. GLA

I have been here several years with a B/E in the 3's but it hasn't been above 1.85 since July 2019. I have always believed that I would escape with a profit on the back of SFB. As Lucan said on his recent video we have been very lucky regarding the POG. The management has been shocking but lady luck should rescue us and most investors should now be able to derisk in the coming months and exit with a profit (assuming they averaged down from the 30p days). GLA

I took big gains from 88e last year and reinvested some of that profit back in 88e . I was going to sell before the drill result like I did last time and got caught by yesterdays RNS. I had a BE on the new tranche of under 2 and it was relatively small beer. The bounce this morning was heaven sent. Have sold the lot and topped up here. 88E should be dead until the next drill whereas this should multi bag over the next few months if George gets production in May. Fingers crossed.