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Aspers,

Dont worry about the short term volatility. It will gradually go up. Anything under 285p before results is a bargain. After results this figure is likely to rise ... IMHO

Buglet,

Thanks for the recognition and my pleasure. Sounds like a good plan to sell a 1/4 at 250p. Personally I have diamond hands on mine as I am getting very confident that in the medium term goal of £100m underlying profit is very achievable, especially looking at the per diem for their cruises next year. Also believe that the travel holidays/tours has a lot of potential ....

Buglet,

are you still with us?

Nice rise ;-)

I think the general trend has been downwards with regards to claims and costs but maybe more recently there has been an uptick:

https://www.insurancetimes.co.uk/news/motorists-see-biggest-annual-fall-in-car-insurance-premiums-since-2014/1454766.article

Three reasons why I believe insurence returns will be better than expected going forward:

1. When saga announce the sale of AICL they also stated that there was an extra £10m dividend from the business which was unexpected. I expect this to show some outperformance upstream.

2. Admiral outperfomance in car insurance last month, which should cross correlate with Saga

https://www.insurancetimes.co.uk/news/admiral-sees-growth-potential-after-record-profit-results/1456086.article

3. Insurance premiums have been falling consistently, which should be especially profitable for Saga's three fixed year policies.

https://www.abi.org.uk/news/news-articles/2025/7/motor-premiums-fall---but-repair-and-theft-costs-keep-revving-up-claims/

However as has been stated on this BB there are a number of posters mentioning how competitive/cheap the new car insurance policies are. This leads me to believe that Saga maybe "investing in price" as the mentioned in one of their previous announcements

Aspers,

Not sure if selling car insurance at £107 is a good thing ... are they trying to get their number of policy holders up?

Sounds like a loss leader for Saga. Obviously good for you though ...

This should provide a boost to Saga ... all those pensioners with extra money in thier pockets ... use it or loose it:

https://www.knightslowe.co.uk/18-billion-in-savings-withdrawn-as-pensioners-prepare-for-inheritance-tax-changes/#:~:text=%C2%A318%20billion%20in%20savings%20withdrawn%20as%20pensioners%20prepare%20for%20Inheritance%20Tax%20changes,-September%209%2C%202025&text=During%20the%202024%20Autumn%20Budget,value%20of%20an%20individual's%20estate.

Sorry to hear that MTBonce, please inform us when and if it is resolved.

Was under the impression that Saga has first class service ... it wins many awards ...

Alnwick,

Interesting. So was it more or less than your previous insurance. Also was cheaper than the alternatives.

Have noticed recetly lots of adverts (especially on LBC)

Car insurance adverts

travel adverts

travel insurance adverts

.... hopefully creating positive results ....

Nice little tree shake. Looks like the bottom to me (roughly)

been reading ****ey rebels post he hints that the rise has been very strong and that there maybe some news round the corner.

i think perhaps there is something leaking, perhaps a broker upgrade or the numbers that will be going into the first half results which maybe materially better than expected.

hoping the astronomical rise continues ....

Buglett,

My pleasure mate. Good to see you are on board for the significant rise. Hopefully we can meet up at the Saga party ;-)

I think there is going to be a pullback but where I dont know. But I am sure there is plenty of sp rise to come ....

Research-tree.com.

Sign up add Saga as a share of interest pay the small fee and away you go.

Sorry but can not copy due to terms and conditons.

Alnwick, Rogue,

More than happy with the dungeon - it will keep me humble when the sp hits £6.00

I would recommend anyone with a sizeable holding to get the singer report on research tree (cant remember who recommended it first)

Loving the sp rise ....

Rogue,

the singer report has an estimate of gross profit. I have taken that plus I have been a bit more optomistic from seeing the admiral results to come up with that figure.

My figures are not optimistic or pessimistic in my opinion just about right ...

Rogue,

in 2 years time:

cruises gross profit £120m

travel £30m

insurance £35

expenses

central costs: £10m

depreciation £35m

interest £40m

That gives £100m

But for detailed figures look at the singer report and forecasts from research tree. They give a detailed path to £100m by 2030.

But they are already out of date from the last few trading statements which have shown the following:

debt dropping faster than projetced.

cruise capacity and per diems ahead.

the extra dividend from AICL of £10m

the £7m from AICL from costs less than expected.

TUI showing better summer than expected.

Admiral showing extra profits from car insurance business

Batfasted,

What was keepin this so low was the fear of default on debt ... even Roger had to step in and provide assistance.

However now we have a clear path of underlying profit and strong growth in profitability going forward.

The debt some may say is high but I do not think so as we have 2 cruise ships which on the books might be valued at just over £500m but in reality the replacement price is much higher ...

See blue skys ahead and with a £100 milion underlying profit with a low reasonable multiple gives £6 to £8 .... and we will get there much sooner than 4 to 5 years.

Hi Petera007,

Have you thought about averaging down. I can see Saga when it achieves its mid term goals of £100m underlying profit hitting the £6 to £8 mark ( 18 months+). But £11 that is 4 or 5 years away and only a possibility ....