Stephan Bernstein, CEO of GreenRoc, details the PFS results for the new graphite processing plant. Watch the video here.
Zccax77,
Good to see another person with good depth and understanding of Saga's businesses and finances. Do agree AICL should be sold for more and if and when they do would add a good chunk of value to the current market value of this company.
Zccax77,
You make some very good points. They were trying to sell Titan just prior to the pandemic for 100M. Of course when the pandemic came it became worthless and therefore no point. But I remember at theis time wanting Saga to sell the underwriting arm which the brokers valued at around 400M, the brokers were recommending this too. Of course they now almost sold it for 90M at the beginning of the year. So it just seems to me they are trying to reduce debt and using the underperforming asset of the time, which is a bit short sighted. So actually am glad they didn't sell AICL as yes in a year or 2 it will almost certainly be worth more.
With regards to exceptionals yes they do seem to have a lot of them consistently over the years. However what I would say at the moment is their cash generation is brilliant and they seem to be paying down debt fast from operations. And of course when investing cash is king!!!
Alnwick,
No.
Saga NET debt is 657.4 M, which inclues the cash.
These ships ARE generating £40M each EBITDA. They will be generating £50M each EBITDA as load factors are going to be targeted at 90 % next year
Saga's market cap is £169M which is agreed far to low.
Saga according to Numis should generate around £55M underlying profit next year whic puts it on a forward PE of just above 3.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/long-tale-of-travel-agent-and-insurer-vmp2kz5s5
So there are two articles in the times. The following is with the buy recommendation from tempus:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/long-tale-of-travel-agent-and-insurer-vmp2kz5s5
The negative surprise yesterday was the pause in the sale of AICL, but the right thing to do.
Looking forward to 90%+ loading next year for cruises ... that should be very nice indeed
Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2023/09/27/saga-s-recovery-odyssey-continues/
like this bit from brokers Numis:
Numis analysts noted that there were some “useful” beats in the statement, with both the outlook for cash flow and profits coming in ahead of expectations. This should allow Saga to deliver on its deleveraging strategy, the broker said.
With an improved booked load factor for 2024/2025 of 49 per cent as of late September, the direction of the travel is clearly positive for Saga, particularly as it can now repay a £150mn bond due next year from its total cash resources. Numis forecasts an adjusted price/earnings ratio for 2024 of 6.7.
LTI,
Couldn't agree with you more. It looks like the hump is over and if they keep paying of debt at this rate and improving profitability then these are an excellent buy at these levels. Kind of agree with asper though should go up to 130p soon ... even though that is nothing to be happy about. Peel Hunt should tweek its valuation upwards a little in next few days.
Pretty much saying it is a mixed bag:
https://www.independent.co.uk/business/saga-expects-to-beat-market-expectations-despite-choppy-waters-b2419336.html
https://www.sharecast.com/news/news-and-announcements/saga-sees-fy-profit-ahead-of-market-estimates--14806913.html
Muzmanoz,
Saga is my biggest personal shareholding by very large margin. I normally post on ADVFN but have moved to lse for Saga as no real comments on ADVFN for Saga. I usually post a lot of info and reasoned points of view.
Hi personally I like the points Bilzo and Buglet11 have made.
What has saved us today is Saga is finally moving towards a more cruise and travel focused company.
Also it has paid down debt by more that £50M in last 6 months due to cruises and travel.
I was shocked initially from no sale of AICL and the pause but they are right in saying if they sold it now it would get circa £90M which is pointless if they are generating £100M cashflow to pay down debt per year.
I was initially shocked by pause in sale but looking at numbers carefully see the logic in the pause
Also with an underlying profit of £28M that puts the PE ratio of 6 with a rapidly growing company in both revenue and earnings make this pretty damn cheap. Agreed Roger financing puts any short term debt issues to bed as well.
So will be adding when funds allow. But real return will come in next financial year IMHO
From Reuters:
Sept 27 (Reuters) - Holiday group Saga's (SAGA.L) rosy revenue and profit forecast on Wednesday underscored resilient travel demand from retired and wealthy Britons less impacted by the cost-of-living crisis, its CEO said.
The London-listed company, which caters to over 50-year-olds, forecast double-digit growth in annual revenue and said underlying profits would beat market estimates.
Saga has benefited from a rebound in bookings for ocean cruises and travel packages after the pandemic. Those between 65 and 75 years of age, who tend to be the most active retirees, are looking to spend money they have saved, CEO Euan Sutherland said in an interview.
"I think that has helped our customers post pandemic to feel like they can go on trips of a lifetime," he said.
"We've also seen very strong performance in our travel business where customers are going on longer holidays and bigger tours," Sutherland added.
Shares in the group were up 1.3% at 0800 GMT. Analysts currently see underlying profit before tax at 28.9 million pounds ($1.21 million) this year, according to a company-compiled estimate.
Saga's insurance unit - which includes its underwriting arm whose potential sale to Australia's Open was terminated earlier this year, has been battling high claims inflation particularly in motor.
Sutherland said the short-term pressure was expected to normalize next year.
On Wednesday, the company said it had paused the process for a potential sale of its underwriting unit.
"While we had established terms for the disposal, the Board believes there is potential to generate greater value once market conditions improve," it said.
In a separate statement, Saga announced finance chief James Quin would be stepping down from the role after nearly five years.
Mike Hazell, who was until recently the interim CFO of Britain's Co-operative Group (42TE.L), will succeed Quin.
So positives are:
Cruise, travel are doing very well as expected.
Debt being paid down fast ... good cashflow.
Bad points:
underwriting and pause in sale.
Surprised a little bit by market reaction but looking good long term.
So if Peel Hunt believe an EPS of 20.7p for this year. Then in my opinion a current PE ratio of 6 is cheap, hence I am happy to keep.
I think we will have a load factor that will far exceed 80%. I expect lower motor and home insuarance sales which I am happy with as long as they price the premiums high.
Anyway just my opinion.
Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1027525/saga-results-to-be-positive-on-recovering-travel-1027525.html
Saga had hinted toward lower motor and home insurance sales for the current year, leaving all eyes on any updates on the firm’s sale of its underwriting business, Peel Hunt added.
Despite the worse outlook for Saga’s insurance business, Peel Hunt tipped full-year earnings per share should come in at 20.7p, well above last year’s interim EPS of 6.1p.