The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Bolland07,
I think sale and leaseback is the best option as it instantly gets rid of the high cost loans of RDH and bond renegotiation. The supermarkets did it so makes sense. so technically Saga may not own the ships but they run and operate them take the profit and rent out the boats
From my point of view Bilzo made very good points in the past and I hope he continues to post and indeed the SP almost made his target. I think aspers was luck with his prediction in the end, not from any info he had but because Saga is way undervalued. This is simply proved by the fact if they do a bit of moving money around and rearrange a bit of financing the SP rockets
Rogue,
Agree with everything you have said plus if motor insurence is looking foreward to higher premiums and underwriter profitability, then it instantly makes the motor insurance retail and underwriting side instantly more valuable. If they put AICL up for sale right now I am sure they can command a much higher price than £90M (what they were going to sell it for a year ago. I hope they do and reduce the debt which would instantly change the value of Saga
Cheers Corry, very difficult to work out buy/sell split especially on a volatile share price that can change in seconds. For example on the big spike upwards many of the trades were marked as sells but could have been buys. Also note that the market does not have to report all trades /(especially large ones) on time which also means Eldose's buys maybe reported later
Hi Rogue,
Thanks very much. Looks like there is still plent of stock available for Eldose to pick up. I think he will be looking for 10%. Not sure why just like you but plenty of value to be had in Saga and maybe he wants a chunk of it etc?
Rogue,
You maybe right. But the indication strongly shows that Eldose is consistently buying shares in Saga. By my calculation around 140,000 per day. And it has been accelerating. Now that everyone knows, other are going to buy also. In addition as you have rightly pointed out the free float will be getting smaller. So yes he will try to control his buying on the way up but also, the pool that he can buy from is getting consistently smaller. And also others will know this and start buying in too.
Maybe I am being overoptimistic on this but maybe our time has finally come and this share price will go to a more reasonable value ... as it is far too cheap at the moment
The fall in prices of used cars and maintenance in the latest inflation figures (note an absolute fall not a fall in the rate of inflation) is extremely good for car insuance side of the business. As well as bolstering the value of AICL...
see below:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/november2023
Second-hand car prices fell by 2.1% between October and November 2023, compared with a fall of 0.2% between the same two months a year ago. On an annual basis, prices fell by 5.4% in the year to November, compared with a fall of 3.6% in the year to October.
The small downward effect from maintenance and repairs resulted from prices falling by 0.8% on the month this year compared with a rise of 1.1% in 2022. The effect came from prices of roadside recovery services falling this year but rising a year ago.
Big sales push and big discounts available now. Southampton store was busy but certainly the activity has died off from a few weeks ago.
zara's results show things have pucked up in Novemebr and december:
https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/zara-owner-inditexs-nine-month-profit-soars-325-sales-growth-slows-down-2023-12-13/
Just for all the otherguys reading the previous comment.
Numis has not changed their recommendation or their price target. Buy with a 1yr target price of 200p
they have simply updated their note, which is good. Anyway which ever way you look at it the share price is cheap and it looks like sellers are diminishing as Roguemale commented earlier
Alnwick,
regarding the NUMIS note. Did they upgrade the target price or just the recommendation?
the important part of the note is:
"We see an improving outlook for EBITDA, primarily driven by announced cost saving initiatives, fading insurance headwinds, and growth in travel"
they also see the insurance market turning for the better if it has not already done so.