Member Info for rupans

Saga is officially going to the moon.

Berenberg has given Saga a buy rating and a price target of ...... 1025p

FG,

I would strongly disagree with you. The main reasons are as follows:

1. A new cruise ship is a lot more costly. Saga bought theirs for £250m each but the new build cost is more £500M now.

2. Saga's issues of the past was too much debt lets not repeat that please.

3. A new cruise ship would reduce the per diems from the current client base. Therefore reducing the profitablility from all 3 ships. This is a big reduction to the bottom line die to break even per diems etc.

4. A new cruise ship would reduce the booked capacity of all three ships. Again reducing the profitablility from all 3 ships. This is a big reduction to the bottom line die to break even capacity.

5. Saga has expensive debts lets pay it off first.

I can not reiterate points 3 and 4 enough the reason the target prices for Saga have been climbing fast due to smallish increments in capacity and per diems is due to the extreme operational leverage of the ocean cruise ships ....

A better idea would be to use the very good and valuable brand name that Saga has created in last few years to perhaps sell cruises through a partner in other parts of the world like around the carribean and perhaps east asia ...

All IMHO.

Ppy,

the hoskins partners target price is very toppy. but his comments on things like Saga does not do cruises to the med etc is wrong.

Hi Thissen,

Thanks for the Vid. Looks like I have done more research into Saga than this guy has.

Anyway I would recommend everyone get the Singer Research report of Research tree for a small fee. They have estimated at 965p target price but they keep underestimating PBT ... IMHO

As you have changed it from closing price to peak price I would like to change my estimate to 867p as a peak price.

My prediction for 30th September is 810p

Thissen,

Thank you lets hope for £7.00. Very strange day.

I think the initial fall may have been due to the "meeting expectations" comment in the trading update.

Which I thought was ridiculous considering the 13% increase in per diem prices for ocean cruise which translates to and extra £30M+ on the bottom line alone.

PPY, thanks for the updates on broker estimates.

So I think the broker upgrades are as follows:

Singer Capital from 725p to 965p (Research tree should have a note out soon)

Peel Hunt keeps the 850p the same

Numis/Deutsche Bank from 600p to 795p

So 640p is now really cheap.

Thissen,

Looks like you were more right. Good AGM but not outstanding ...

However with 13% extra per diems per cruise ... that is a lot extra at the bottom line ...

Unfortunately there is a big cost of coming out of the finance deal hence the reason they have a lot of spare cash on the books and have not used it to pay down debt ...

Horsearse,

calm down dear. oil will not be a problem as the US has used the small ceasefire window to secure a route through the passage. Also the small window was used to get a lot of cargo and oil out the strait.

Hi Thissen,

If they said they were on target for 2030 goal the sp would fall as they have already said they are ahead of schedule to meet that target.

Also note the CEO statement in Saga magazine recently he has said that they are preparing for the next step .... Hence my high target for July 1st ....

Any ideas?

From saga magazine:

“What I can say with confidence is that Saga will be holding its AGM at the end of June, when we’ll update shareholders on our progress. While I can’t predict the outcomes of sporting events or leadership contests, I am prepared to go out on a limb and say that Saga will continue to move forward to the next stage, building on the growth guidance we set out earlier this year. And with zero chance of penalty shoot-outs!”

sounds pretty positive to me ....

What is more interesting are the 2 x 200k trades (circa £1m) at 600p at 14:55. 600p is well above the buy price of Saga for a number of weeks at least

Reason for fall in order of importance (IMHO):

1. Burnham win -> bond yields up -> cost of mortgages etc, typical market reaction even if it should not really affect Saga

2. Crossover from downgrade of Admiral by RBC

3. Tree shake which caused a deeper if only temporary fall before AGM trading update (have noticed timely tree shakes before announcements)

4. background Iran jitters which really dont have much of an effect anymore

Thissen yes there were 2 80000 trades this morning - not particularly large imo

Ok then open to suggestions for dates

How do people feel about meeting up in London on either the evening of Saturday 27th June or 4th July, before or after the AGM trading update.

I will buy everyone a fee drink.

Notice that the ocean cruise on August 19th now sold out ... so all ocean criuses until 6th September are fully booked ....

Hi Rogue,

Happy to meet up in london for drinks whenever is convenient for others. Calendar is pretty free till August.

And everyone who comes along gets a free drink on me.

Happy for you to jump in at 640 but it is really up to Thissen

Now lets see if it holds ...

Deal done ... looking forward to travel stocks and saga getting a good jump.

Thissen,

I think we should freeze the bets going forward ;-) in light of this market changing news. I think it looks good for my prediction now

Thissen,

I am a bit more optomistic £6.92 is my bet