Member Info for rupans

Hi Alnwick,

Good to see you are in this too. Bought some this morning after it fell back.

See a lot of potential here as FP is integrated into the company and more clinton card stores are closed down.

And as you said the bargain basement price.

Thissen,

np mate. glad you made a profit. But sorry to see you go. but remember RDH didn't just buy 1.2M shares (£3.28M) to show support for Saga, he also did it because he saw value ;-)

Buglet,

No problem mate. Glad you made a profit. Does look like there is going to be a pullback.

However I am just going to hold onto mine - all of it. I can see the momentum in Saga's financials picking up.

Bought in at 104, happy with that. wierd open

As a new investor. The results don't look bad. I will be buying in today at some point I think.

Looking more long term to card factory doing well from funky pigeon....

Alnwick,

Totally agree. Might need to think about booking Alnwick castle soon ;-)

Sudden huge jump in share price .....

woohoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

Thomson,

very unlikely in near future. However getting another river cruise ship in 27 I believe.

Rogue,

I agree with you, i believe that they will get to £100M underlying profit and almost 2X leverage by FY 27/28 (28E). So maybe dividends in 29E.

Graviton,

I am not an accountant but the £80M Saga gets for the insurance business will be eaten up through the unwinding of the negative working capital when they transfer the car and motor insurance policies to Ageas. ie people pay up front for car insurance.

Saga should get a bonus of £30M if it meets policy sales in 2026 which would be good for the cash position

Hi guys,

Regarding dividends. I dont think that will be on the cards until they have paid their loan facility that charges 11.5% or reduced it to a level where they can renegotiate a much better rate.

The SP is very low partially as the full scope of value is underestimated but also because of the large debt hanging over it.

Read the IC article today and I think they are still concentrating too much on the debt which I think is now very manageable and being reduced at a very fast rate. I dont think they have got the numbers quite right and dont get that Saga has good visibility through forward bookings.

All of this is IMHO

Https://uk.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/deutsche-bank-raises-saga-stock-price-target-to-gbp285-on-strong-h1-results-93CH-4278070

I think 300p could be very soon.

Mike has a habit of underpromising and overdelivering. He has said we should make as much this year as last.

Last year was 23p eps. Singer expects 30.9p this year eps, who also are underestimating.

Then there is the fact that we have very significant growth and rapid declines in debt going forward so ....

Deutsche upgrades PT from 185p to 285p (BUY)

Hi Rogue,

Yes I did indeed. Would recommend everyone in Saga to listen to it. Mike is being cautious too. Suspect in next presentation will bring forward the timeline to hit £100m underlying profit ....

Also looks like Singer Capital has increased the price target from £2.85 to £4.10 and the eps for this year from 18.4p to 30.4p.

Interesting that you say the 600p price target ends July 27.

Not sure I understand:

"Leverage in todays figures is slightly down to 4.3, BUT this is including a £34.3m one-off charge for disposal of underwriting. SO if you take that out and everything same then its already at 3.4. Sub 3 will be achieved easily in 27 i'd say, if not next year. If a divi looks like returning in 27 then share price will move nicely I think."

I thought the 34.3M was included in the calc for 4.3 ....

Anyway will go away and try and figure it out thanks

Rupan

What is the interesting thing is the accelerating per diems growth in ocean cruise.

For forward bookings they have a 14% increase in per diems compared with only 10% a year ago.

Looking forward to broker upgrades.

Numis and Singer both asked very good questions ... will awit broker upgrades ;-)

Buglet,

these results are far ahead of singers predictions which value saga at 285p.

But these are complex results as usual. The market if informed should react very positively.

This year the profits were expected to be half last years due to financing costs and all the changes but now we will meet last years projections. Plus debt has fallen much faster....

Rogue,

I think it will be fine whatever you choose. Very happy that C*ckneyRebel has validated my views as he is a pro and has many followers.

A mention on C*ckneyRebels blog this week.

I also asked him about the interims on Wednesday ... and he is very bullish too ;-)

Hi Batfasted,

Looks like today was a healthy up day.

Hopefully next three trading days are healthy up days before the results ;-)

Not sure why all the doom and gloom. Short term movements are unpredictable but long term this is going north IMHO.

Roll on the results on the 24th Septemebr ...