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Just to back up my opinion here is article on xmas performance:
https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2022/12/superdry-secures-80m-refinancing-deal/
Utterlyclueless,
let me give me my opinion to your questions:
Is there any brand value in superdry?
Yes as they have already done 2 licensing deals, one for east asia and one for India etc. Each license deal worth more than the market cap of Superdry. Also circa £600 M sales per year of a premium priced product.
The stores always look empty when I walk past them
Can you tell me which stores these are please? The southampton store was empty literally during summer period upto about 3 weeks ago. Now they are quite busy and seem quite popular at the moment. Not like Primark though
are any products that are gaining sales momentum?
I would say Jackets are Superdry's key product. I have visisted again this week and there were 3 people trying on jackets at the same time. Their stores have pretty much stuffed themselve with a huge number of different jackets this year. More than last. Their jackets were their key seller last year and they have picked up on that.
So the key to look out for is if it is difficult to buy popular sizes of their jackets in a months time or so, would be the indicator that Superdry did well this xmas.
All my opinion of course and would like to hear how busy other superdry stores are across the country
This should have a positive read through for Saga:
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1032266/direct-line-says-rising-prices-underpin-strong-growth-in-motor-arm-1032266.html
Went to local superdry today. Very busy and lots of people buying and trying on jackets. I think Superdry have figured out this is something that they sell well. Even bought one myself - last one in medium for that range (the windbraker jacket in beige). Had no intention to buy a jacket but it just looked too good. Very promising as the store was barren September and October. Would be interested if other people have seen similar things in their local superdry.
On the back of this have decided that this is a buy all the way up to 70 to 80p. Just my opinion
LTI,
All opinions welcome. My rationale is that saga share price is much more volatile than something like Vodafone, has much more significant debt problems e.g much higher debt to equity e.t.c. and has specifically been flagged up as a company which is very sensitive to debt refinancing rates. See previous comments and links I have made.
Anyway there are some other positive news for saga regarding second hand car prices which would be very beneficial to the motor insurance side and potential sale value of AICL:
https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/used-car-values-record-largest-drop-in-a-month-in-over-a-decade
LTI,
reason for rise last few days is that US and UK bond yields are falling and markets believe that we have hit the top of the interest rate cycle. This means that when Saga comes to renogiating debt rates it will have better rates. Saga was flagged as a company that might have issues refinancing in the future.
Still dirt cheap so hoping for much more rises to come.
According to this people over 50 have been hit hard by car insurance premium increases and are less likely to change provider ... good for Saga..
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/lifestyle/car-insurance-warning-prices-skyrocket-31316917
From telegraph:
Update: Admiral
If this column had a pound for every complaint heard from friends this year about increases in the cost of car insurance, it would not need an investment portfolio. At least higher premiums help to support our thesis for Admiral, whose shares now trade at an 18-month high, to suggest that we may be on the right track with the provider of car, travel and pet insurance following our tip in April.
Admiral has said little since its first-half results in August, but Sabre Insurance offered encouragement with its latest update in the middle of last month. The FTSE 250 company reported a 20pc increase in total gross written premiums for the first nine months of 2023, when a 34pc rise in car-related business more than offset slower markets for taxis and motorcycles.
Sabre had already indicated a focus on price rather than volume and this read positively for others in the industry, especially as the company raised its guidance for growth in gross premiums written for 2023, made no change for its expectations to its combined ratio (a key measure of profitability) and showed a clear improvement in its solvency ratio.
Claims inflation in the double digits is still a challenge for the industry and autumn’s rotten wet weather is another potential test, but price increases should help to ameliorate the impact. Further signs of improvement in Britain’s motor insurance market, as well as ongoing reductions in start-up losses in America and Europe, could in turn boost Admiral.
Best known for its Admiral, Diamond and Elephant brands, the FTSE 100 company is now expected by analysts to report a modest increase in pre-tax profits in 2023 and then healthier gains, and a return to dividend growth, in 2024.
Forecasts of a 124p-a-share dividend for next year would equate to a yield of 5pc, so patient investors can expect to be paid while they wait for a potential earnings recovery, which could also fuel further share price appreciation.
Https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/martin-lewis-car-insurance-premiums-b2433142.html
good to see premiums rocketing too. Makes it a bigger market in £ terms and should supercharge the value of AICL. Just need to run through all the stupid 3 year policies
Https://www.cruiseandferry.net/articles/how-saga-cruises-is-raising-the-bar-for-boutique-luxury-cruising
Not sure about the israel and egypt cruise though ... WTF
This is an extract from the times:
Advisers are licking their lips. EY-Parthenon, a division of accountancy firm EY, put Royal Mail, Saga, Iceland, John Lewis and Zoopla on a list of “targets” with major debt maturities in 2024 and 2025. The names are in a tightly controlled document seen by The Sunday Times: Turnaround and Restructuring Strategy Watch List.
Not sure why they are targets for PE if they have debt maturities??? Also Roger has almost 30% and is bank rolling saga
Interesting price action today especially since the whole market was down significantly.
Would not be surprised if we get another RNS soon from our friend from the UAE stating that he has increased his holding ;-)
Should be a positive read through for us:
https://www.sharecast.com/news/small-caps-news/sabre--15015216.html
We now have another large shareholder from the Euro Emirates Group. I expect him to soak up a few more shares going forward:
https://www.reuters.com/business/uae-investor-among-top-shareholders-british-holiday-group-saga-2023-10-17/
aspers,
By the way Bilzo is correct in his analysis of the 3 year fixed price insurance . You can only really underwrite the first years premium for a number of reasons. As confirmed by the board in their shareholder presentation
I too am looking at the potential multiples for 2025. Dont understand why the brokers have not updated their estimates yet. From my understanding the motor insurance should get better from here and most other areas are performing well or extremely well. Looking to top up before the next update...