Member Info for rupans

Dont forget Eldose owns 8% and I own 1.6%

So the profit last year was £48.9M after the cost of finance of the ship debt (£19M). Which I think is reasonable considering what they paid for the ships.

So perhaps this year we can expect £60M after paying ship debt financing costs of £19M which would be good. The ship debt they have kept and is at a lower rate to the expensive financing.

Still looking for circa £50M underlying profit after cost of financing ...

Rogue,

speed of deleverage hopefully fast. I know that they are getting money for AICL in next few months but I think that money will be most eaten up in restructuring and cost of financing ...

Bertmonkey,

The data they have given is very good. Remember they have high expectations. They expect £100 M underlying profit within 5 years.

I suspect it will be much quicker than that.

cruise growth has now saturated but at a very profitable rate. (expect £48M for ocean cruises and £8M for river)

travel growth is very good with large increases to hit bottom line (expect £20M for this year)

lets see if they can grow money ...

so expect circa £50M for this year in total underlying growing to around £70M next year.

lets see what the brokers say

TU is good but not great.

Cruises and river cruises have better capacity figures as well as better per diems

Travel very good growth which should mean a profit circa £20M vs last years £10M.

Natwest deal not sure tbh should produce good growth here but is this just a replacement from Goldman Sachs. More product offerings for sure so maybe good here.

Anyway should be positive market reaction and still Saga is grossly undervalued ....

Saga does deal with Natwest regarding personal banking woohooo!!!!

Calm before the storm ....

Bought my last top up last week. Pretty much maxed out here. Fingers crossed for TU but going by todays surge should be sweet.

Buglet I guess you could not get back in :-(

Hoping the fall is not too bad.

but yes I guess the pro is buglet gets another chance

Buglet,

I have to agree with you that what was said was not appropriate.

I do think you are going to miss out on some spectacular gains. Good gains on travel could mean that we reach the underlying profit of £100 miliion quite soon ie next year. The management have put their money where there mouth is and the new CEO has been very cautious with expectations in the past and has exceeded them ....

Sorry to hear that buglet, still reckon you should jump in.

Looking forward to v good things. As long as there isnt a nuclear war we should be good....

Buglet,

Did you get back in or are you waiting a little bit longer for a dip?

Great post Fishinggardener,

After your post I looked at what the per diem cost on the cruises. They definitely have jumed higher, very difficult to get a saga cruise now below £400 per diem (both this year and next years cruises) . Now bearing in mind the average per diem for 2025 was £357, that is a lot of an increase that will go to the bottom add in an increase capacity filled from last years 91% and it looks lke there should be a tasty increase in profits ...

Hi Rogue,

Found the comment and analysis. Hopefully this will bring in more investors to Saga. Saga has a very low volume of stock traded on a daily basis, so more new investors should get this stock back up to a more reasonable value.

Not sure how many people follow C**kneyRebel TBH

Hi Rogue,

That is intersting could you copy in what he said???

Inching up is much better than flying up and then creashing down ....

suspect they are benefitting from package holiday and tour holiday growth ....

like easyjet, loveholidays and on the beach ....

Yes looks like a rising wedge, so good possibility of a breakout upwards. However there is a possibility of a significant move downwards. Either way the move should be significant in next few days i.e not holding around the 140p mark.

Hopefully looking forward to a good trading update next month ....

Zcaxx77,

Cruise ships, even when at 100% double occupancy (two people per cabin), can exceed 100% capacity due to the inclusion of third and fourth guests, often children, in cabins. This means that the total number of passengers on board can be higher than the number of double occupancy berths.

Note not really possible with Saga especially as any chidren need to be over 50 ;-)

Another reason for the boom is pensioners withdrawing from their pensions to avoid IHT and spending it (item 7)

https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/how-iht-pensions-could-impact-your-retirement-choices-ii533444

Looks like interest rates are going to come down fast. This will help with the financing costs quite demonstrably, namely about a £4m for a 1% reduction.

Aslo looks like fuel prices falling rapidly means another couple of million saved there.

Saw this article on Saga travel and its back end operations. This maybe why we should be expecting grat things from travel:

https://www.travolution.com/news/in-depth/big-interviews/sponsored-interview-saga-travel-on-leadership-its-new-mentality-and-new-tech-partnership/